NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	97		Excitement	8.4 [198]		MVP	Alvin Williams (TOR): +9.1%
Toronto Raptors	95		Comeback	5.0 [395]		LVP	Antonio Davis (TOR): -29.5%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Foster	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.01	0.04	0.00	4	56%	0.06	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,0.05,0.11,0.04,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.04	0.00	14	67%	0.24	4	-0.18	5	80%	0.02
Jermaine O'Neal	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	0.00	0.01	12	67%	0.08	2	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02
Ron Mercer	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0,0,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	-0.02	13	54%	0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Erick Strickland	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Jonathan Bender	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	4	67%	0.03	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Metta World Peace	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08	-0.09	-0.00	-0.00	9	46%	-0.01	3	-0.07	6	83%	0.01
Brad Miller	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.16	-0.06	-0.10	0.00	8	37%	-0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Jamaal Tinsley	-0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.08,-0.25	-0.09	-0.16	0.01	9	35%	-0.05	2	-0.21	2	50%	-0.08

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Alvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.02,0.02,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.02	-0.00	12	70%	0.23	2	-0.14	6	100%	0.06
Jermaine Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Chris Jefferies	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Bradley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Greg Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	3	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Voshon Lenard	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.08	-0.12	0.02	16	65%	-0.02	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.05	-0.02	7	48%	-0.06	1	-0.03	7	29%	-0.10
Morris Peterson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.06	0.00	17	46%	0.02	3	-0.15	5	100%	0.07
Antonio Davis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.29	-0.29	-0.03	-0.27	-0.01	18	49%	-0.23	2	-0.06	3	33%	-0.06

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.0	1.8	31.0	16.8	24.5	2.5	36.4	135.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +49.4%

TOR -4.2%

IND +23.7%

TOR -16.2%

TOR -2.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	TOR	NBA	IND	TOR	NBA
this game	14.8	17.2	15.5	106.6	106.7	101.6
season	15.4	16.2		102.2	98.8
opponent	15.3	15.5		105.1	99.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	13.2	14.6	15.7	15.9	14.8
TOR	16.2	16.7	17.0	19.4	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ron Mercer	73	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.43	4	-2	6	15.1	13.7	1.40	17.8	14.9	2.91
Al Harrington	62	61	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.41	2	0	2	15.6	13.1	2.48	17.5	16.6	0.87
Metta World Peace	56	55	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.45	-1	3	-4	13.5	16.8	-3.31	16.3	18.7	-2.43
Jeff Foster	21	20	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.18	8	-6	14	14.5	14.9	-0.41	18.6	16.8	1.76
Jermaine O'Neal	66	63	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.34	1	1	0	14.1	16.5	-2.38	16.8	18.3	-1.51
Jamaal Tinsley	62	62	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.49	-5	7	-12	14.7	15.1	-0.41	17.2	17.3	-0.03
Erick Strickland	23	22	0.09	0.41	-0.32	-0.06	5	-3	8	16.0	14.4	1.68	18.3	16.9	1.44
Jonathan Bender	30	29	0.07	0.43	-0.37	0.04	1	1	0	14.4	15.0	-0.63	17.6	17.1	0.52
Brad Miller	62	61	-0.22	0.72	-0.94	-0.07	-5	7	-12	15.5	13.3	2.22	16.6	18.6	-2.00

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Bradley	13	14	0.12	-0.62	0.74	0.03	3	-5	8	14.5	17.7	-3.16	14.1	14.9	-0.85
Chris Jefferies	10	10	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	0	-2	19.7	16.9	2.78	12.5	15.1	-2.57
Jerome Williams	77	76	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.40	10	-12	22	17.0	19.0	-2.04	15.0	13.8	1.19
Jermaine Jackson	20	21	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	0.03	-9	7	-16	19.0	16.7	2.28	15.3	14.6	0.64
Alvin Williams	73	74	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.43	6	-8	14	16.8	19.4	-2.68	14.8	14.8	0.03
Greg Foster	24	27	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	0.03	-13	11	-24	17.5	17.1	0.42	12.8	15.6	-2.81
Antonio Davis	77	78	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.47	-1	-1	0	17.4	16.1	1.33	15.4	11.4	3.97
Voshon Lenard	67	70	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.58	2	-4	6	17.4	16.9	0.49	15.2	13.5	1.65
Morris Peterson	84	85	-0.60	0.10	-0.71	-0.43	-6	4	-10	17.3	16.8	0.46	14.7	16.5	-1.83

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.38,0.37,0.41,0.45,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.69,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.69,0.73,0.77,0.73,0.74,0.82,0.79,0.8,0.77,0.75,0.7,0.62,0.57,0.67,0.58,0.59,0.47,0.34,0.39,0.55,0.43,0.43,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 92, NJN 87	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.61,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.47,0.51,0.55,0.58,0.67,0.63,0.68,0.73,0.74,0.76,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.72,0.78,0.83,0.84,0.74,0.75,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.71,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.38,0.36,0.55,0.42,0	90.8%
LAL 112, SEA 109	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.5,0.53,0.49,0.57,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.51,0.53,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.67,0.8,0.73,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.86,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.48,0.52,0.53,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.31,0.3,0.34,0.26,0	90.7%
DEN 82, BOS 80	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.54,0.53,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.78,0.78,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.81,0.73,0.71,0.71,0.65,0.66,0.74,0.64,0.58,0.62,0.52,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.59,0.47,0.53,0.64,0.31,0.58,0	90.5%