NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Chicago Bulls	111		Excitement	9.4 [109]		MVP	Nikola Mirotic (CHI): +22.2%
Dallas Mavericks	118		Comeback	3.3 [461]		LVP	Bobby Portis (CHI): -14.3%

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Nikola Mirotic	0.22	0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.18,0.29,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.18	0.05	0.01	10	74%	0.22	0	0.00	11	64%	-0.09
Pau Gasol	0.17	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.13	0.04	-0.00	10	75%	0.17	0	0.00	4	100%	0.02
Doug McDermott	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	87%	0.08	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Taj Gibson	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.05	-0.00	0.00	8	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.06
Jimmy Butler	0.01	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01	-0.03	-0.00	-0.04	11	57%	0.09	5	-0.08	8	87%	0.02
Cameron Bairstow	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.01,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.22,0.21,0.11,-0.06	0.07	-0.12	0.01	20	61%	0.15	3	-0.21	1	100%	0.02
Aaron Brooks	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.03,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	9	39%	-0.01	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Kirk Hinrich	-0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	3	0%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Bobby Portis	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.19,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	4	-0.15	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Raymond Felton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.08,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.15,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.12	0.02	5	72%	0.21	1	-0.03	8	100%	0.09
Jose Juan Barea	0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.14,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.31,0.31,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.22	-0.06	0.02	14	87%	0.15	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.03
Dwight Powell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.03	0.07	0.00	6	60%	0.17	1	-0.07	3	33%	-0.05
Wesley Matthews	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04	0.04	-0.01	0.05	-0.00	11	45%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zaza Pachulia	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.02	0.01	13	55%	0.07	1	-0.05	5	100%	0.03
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.02,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.06	-0.00	11	62%	0.02	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.00
Chandler Parsons	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.11,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.05	-0.07	0.01	15	61%	0.10	3	-0.13	3	67%	-0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	8	37%	0.01	2	-0.06	3	67%	-0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.7	1.8	29.4	15.4	29.6	1.8	37.3	139.0
league avg	24.5	2.3	29.5	15.8	26.7	2.3	33.5	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHI -16.3%

DAL +15.3%

DAL +26.3%

DAL +26.4%

CHI -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHI	DAL	NBA	CHI	DAL	NBA
this game	14.5	15.8	14.9	116.8	124.2	105.1
season	14.8	15.5		103.7	105.0
opponent	14.7	14.9		106.5	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHI	15.0	14.2	14.4	14.4	14.5
DAL	15.0	15.8	19.0	13.8	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Doug McDermott	40	40	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.12	9	-16	25	12.7	15.8	-3.16	15.2	16.2	-0.97
Aaron Brooks	31	31	0.10	-0.60	0.70	-0.13	8	-15	23	15.5	14.0	1.55	14.3	16.5	-2.26
Kirk Hinrich	21	24	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-6	5	15.0	14.4	0.70	13.0	16.7	-3.70
Bobby Portis	22	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	0.02	-5	-2	-3	14.8	14.4	0.41	13.0	16.7	-3.72
Cameron Bairstow	5	5	-0.14	-0.36	0.21	0.03	-6	-1	-5	6.8	14.9	-8.13	11.8	16.0	-4.23
Pau Gasol	73	73	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.17	-1	-6	5	14.5	14.6	-0.11	16.6	13.3	3.30
Nikola Mirotic	76	76	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.30	-3	-4	1	14.8	13.5	1.29	16.5	12.9	3.58
Derrick Rose	71	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.29	-5	-2	-3	14.5	14.6	-0.16	16.7	13.5	3.13
Jimmy Butler	73	73	-0.56	0.06	-0.62	-0.15	-14	7	-21	14.1	15.7	-1.59	16.2	14.4	1.82
Taj Gibson	65	64	-0.94	0.44	-1.37	-0.32	-21	14	-35	15.3	12.8	2.44	15.7	16.1	-0.38

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	67	68	1.06	-0.56	1.63	0.24	28	-21	49	15.3	17.0	-1.64	15.0	13.3	1.69
Zaza Pachulia	56	57	0.67	-0.17	0.84	0.20	16	-9	25	16.3	15.1	1.29	15.1	13.7	1.41
Wesley Matthews	70	71	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.28	10	-3	13	15.3	17.3	-2.05	14.9	13.4	1.46
Chandler Parsons	71	70	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.10	14	-7	21	16.4	14.1	2.26	14.3	15.0	-0.67
Raymond Felton	45	45	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.29	1	6	-5	16.7	15.0	1.75	13.6	15.3	-1.68
Jose Juan Barea	63	62	0.19	0.31	-0.11	0.13	2	5	-3	15.3	16.8	-1.46	15.5	12.5	3.00
Devin Harris	39	39	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.09	-5	12	-17	15.0	16.4	-1.42	12.9	15.6	-2.68
Charlie Villanueva	6	5	-0.22	0.72	-0.95	0.01	-8	15	-23	15.3	15.8	-0.51	17.6	14.3	3.27
JaVale McGee	18	18	-0.27	0.77	-1.04	0.05	-11	18	-29	17.2	15.5	1.67	11.1	15.3	-4.19
Dwight Powell	40	40	-0.29	0.79	-1.07	0.07	-12	19	-31	15.8	15.8	0.02	14.6	14.4	0.16

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.43,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.46,0.41,0.31,0.29,0.25,0.3,0.5,0.49,0.63,0.67,0.64,0.76,0.71,0.68,0.66,0.59,0.6,0.48,0.54,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.53,0.69,0.6,0.67,0.69,0.63,0.57,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 93, NJN 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.38,0.42,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.57,0.53,0.54,0.43,0.47,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.43,0.41,0.42,0.36,0.42,0.46,0.56,0.54,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.76,0.74,0.62,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.44,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.47,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.66,0.8,0.63,0.55,0.74,1	91.8%
SAC 116, GSW 117	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.46,0.48,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.39,0.31,0.25,0.33,0.42,0.38,0.45,0.56,0.64,0.64,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.63,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.42,0.31,0.33,0.66,0.75,0.72,0.43,0.73,1	90.3%
CLE 59, SAS 64	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.53,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.43,0.42,0.48,0.47,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.57,0.57,0.64,0.61,0.64,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.59,0.57,0.56,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.65,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.77,0.82,1	90.2%