NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	76		Excitement	8.4 [189]		MVP	Al Jefferson (CHA): +8.1%
Charlotte Hornets	78		Comeback	4.2 [377]		LVP	Gerald Henderson (CHA): -25.8%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Granger	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Ennis	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	40%	0.01	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Udonis Haslem	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Andersen	-0.00	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Norris Cole	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.12,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.07	-0.02	-0.04	0.01	10	50%	0.05	2	-0.12	6	67%	-0.01
Shawne Williams	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.07	0.01	-0.08	-0.00	9	44%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwyane Wade	-0.13	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.13,-0.13	-0.05	-0.08	0.00	21	40%	-0.09	1	-0.04	1	100%	0.00
Chris Bosh	-0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.16	-0.05	-0.12	-0.01	20	40%	-0.13	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Shabazz Napier	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.05	-0.02	4	0%	-0.08	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00

Charlotte Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.15,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.00	11	55%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kemba Walker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.21,-0.07,0.05	0.05	-0.07	0.11	-0.01	17	37%	0.08	1	-0.03	6	83%	0.07
Brian Roberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.02	0.00	2	83%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Marvin Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.02	-0.01	3	37%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.06
Bismack Biyombo	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	-0.00	10	52%	0.04	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.01
Gary Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Cody Zeller	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.01	8	26%	-0.08	0	0.00	7	57%	-0.05
Lance Stephenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.01	4	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.23,-0.23	-0.23	-0.10	-0.14	-0.01	7	36%	-0.12	3	-0.11	8	50%	-0.17
Gerald Henderson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.16,-0.26,-0.26,-0.26	-0.26	-0.06	-0.18	0.01	13	39%	-0.12	2	-0.13	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.8	29.2	14.7	23.2	2.4	35.5	132.6
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CHA +3.8%

CHA +15.2%

CHA +54.0%

MIA -23.2%

CHA +0.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CHA	NBA	MIA	CHA	NBA
this game	17.8	16.5	15.1	90.5	92.9	104.2
season	16.0	15.6		102.4	98.9
opponent	15.1	15.3		102.6	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	14.9	18.6	19.4	18.4	17.8
CHA	17.2	16.5	14.9	17.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Norris Cole	14	14	0.03	-0.53	0.56	-0.03	2	-4	6	18.8	17.6	1.23	17.1	16.4	0.66
Udonis Haslem	26	24	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	0.04	-3	1	-4	18.1	17.6	0.51	16.5	16.5	-0.03
Dwyane Wade	58	58	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.45	11	-13	24	18.9	15.3	3.61	16.1	17.5	-1.36
Danny Granger	35	35	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	-0.03	-6	4	-10	18.0	17.6	0.36	16.2	16.8	-0.56
Chris Andersen	35	36	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	3	-8	18.0	17.6	0.41	15.5	17.3	-1.79
Shabazz Napier	38	37	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.06	-5	3	-8	17.4	18.1	-0.72	18.1	15.3	2.88
Shawne Williams	46	45	-0.29	-0.21	-0.07	-0.40	4	-6	10	17.9	17.6	0.24	16.8	16.2	0.59
James Ennis	49	49	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.41	4	-6	10	17.6	18.0	-0.36	16.8	16.2	0.56
Chris Bosh	61	63	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.45	0	-2	2	17.4	18.7	-1.35	16.9	15.3	1.59
Mario Chalmers	58	59	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.34	-12	10	-22	16.7	20.2	-3.58	15.8	18.2	-2.44

Charlotte Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Cody Zeller	57	55	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.44	8	-6	14	17.0	15.6	1.37	17.6	18.1	-0.52
Michael Kidd-Gilchrist	53	52	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.39	9	-7	16	15.3	18.6	-3.26	17.4	18.4	-0.99
Gerald Henderson	54	51	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.47	4	-2	6	16.4	16.8	-0.38	17.3	18.4	-1.09
Kemba Walker	60	59	0.58	-0.08	0.66	0.46	4	-2	6	16.6	16.2	0.44	18.1	16.9	1.26
Marvin Williams	34	36	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.50	-2	4	-6	14.1	18.1	-3.99	17.7	17.8	-0.07
Lance Stephenson	35	37	0.03	0.47	-0.45	0.06	-1	3	-4	18.3	15.3	2.97	18.4	17.3	1.10
Bismack Biyombo	47	46	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	-0.10	3	-1	4	16.3	16.8	-0.46	17.9	17.6	0.33
Brian Roberts	24	25	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.02	-2	4	-6	16.2	16.6	-0.44	16.9	18.1	-1.26
Al Jefferson	30	31	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.04	-5	7	-12	18.7	15.3	3.39	17.9	17.7	0.22
Gary Neal	26	28	-0.27	0.77	-1.03	-0.03	-8	10	-18	16.9	16.3	0.58	18.4	17.4	1.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.5,0.46,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.6,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.69,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.74,0.64,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.66,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.76,0.74,0.78,0.88,0.87,0.82,0.82,0.67,0.68,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.62,0.37,0.22,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 80, IND 82	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.61,0.63,0.76,0.76,0.72,0.67,0.73,0.79,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.82,0.83,0.75,0.83,0.83,0.87,0.78,0.84,0.79,0.87,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.78,0.61,0.37,0.22,0.42,1	93.7%
HOU 83, UTA 85	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.52,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.53,0.58,0.63,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.59,0.68,0.7,0.68,0.72,0.75,0.71,0.73,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.8,0.86,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.67,0.48,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.78,0.68,0.46,0.32,0.58,1	91.5%
GSW 95, NJN 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.64,0.68,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.7,0.71,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.71,0.76,0.81,0.81,0.8,0.7,0.59,0.72,0.73,0.63,0.61,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.79,0.81,0.81,0.71,0.67,0.77,0.74,0.65,0.61,0.61,0.29,0.15,0.26,1	91.4%