NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	105		Excitement	11.7 [27]		MVP	Mike Conley (MEM): +43.6%
Memphis Grizzlies	106		Comeback	14.6 [107]		LVP	Vince Carter (DAL): -18.9%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.22	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.2,0.25,0.3,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.06,0.06,0.06,0,0,-0.06,0.22	0.14	0.10	0.02	22	64%	0.44	2	-0.22	3	100%	0.02
Brandan Wright	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.10	0.04	0.00	5	100%	0.14	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.06,-0.06,-0.21,-0.27,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,0.26,0.26,0.07	-0.05	0.11	-0.01	21	43%	0.23	2	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	57%	0.07	0	0.00	4	100%	0.03
Shawn Marion	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	0.03	0.01	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.00	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	56%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.05	-0.01	2	50%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Devin Harris	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.05	-0.12	-0.00	8	56%	0.02	4	-0.19	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	11	37%	-0.08	2	-0.11	2	0%	-0.02

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Conley	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.05,-0.05,0.44	0.44	0.03	0.40	-0.00	16	56%	0.54	3	-0.11	7	71%	0.15
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,0.05,0.15	0.15	-0.04	0.18	-0.01	11	48%	0.28	3	-0.12	5	20%	-0.15
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.10	0.05	0.01	13	63%	0.13	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.05
Zach Randolph	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.11,0.22,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.01	0.02	0.00	22	54%	0.09	3	-0.06	6	83%	0.03
Ed Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	2	100%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Nick Calathes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	0.01	2	75%	0.02	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.00	5	30%	0.03	3	-0.16	0	0%	0.00
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.17	-0.03	-0.13	0.02	10	48%	-0.11	2	-0.06	3	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.1	2.8	29.2	17.7	29.0	3.8	37.1	2.0	17.6	166.2
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL -31.6%

MEM +50.2%

MEM +5.4%

MEM +11.8%

MEM +14.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MEM	NBA	DAL	MEM	NBA
this game	16.5	17.3	15.1	111.7	112.8	105.2
season	15.3	16.4		109.0	104.5
opponent	15.2	15.0		103.4	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DAL	15.0	20.1	17.7	14.9	15.3	16.5
MEM	15.0	19.9	19.2	15.7	18.0	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	23	23	0.52	-1.02	1.54	0.05	16	-17	33	17.0	16.4	0.68	17.3	17.3	0.01
Samuel Dalembert	19	21	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.13	-5	4	-9	16.6	16.5	0.12	19.8	16.6	3.17
Vince Carter	48	50	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.26	7	-8	15	15.9	17.2	-1.38	17.0	17.7	-0.68
Devin Harris	46	47	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.36	8	-9	17	16.3	16.7	-0.36	16.3	18.3	-2.04
DeJuan Blair	33	28	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	0.14	-9	8	-17	16.0	16.8	-0.82	16.2	17.7	-1.49
Dirk Nowitzki	82	81	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.53	8	-9	17	16.5	16.4	0.13	17.0	18.9	-1.89
Brandan Wright	42	45	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.74	13	-14	27	16.9	16.2	0.67	16.8	17.8	-0.96
Jose Calderon	48	47	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.11	-9	8	-17	16.7	16.3	0.36	18.3	16.3	2.04
Shawn Marion	56	55	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.11	-21	20	-41	16.8	16.1	0.67	17.8	16.6	1.12
Monta Ellis	73	73	-0.95	0.45	-1.40	-0.57	-13	12	-25	16.6	16.3	0.26	17.5	16.8	0.69

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Zach Randolph	80	83	0.87	-0.37	1.25	0.58	10	-9	19	17.6	15.6	1.94	16.6	16.0	0.60
Mike Conley	75	74	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.51	8	-7	15	17.5	16.7	0.77	16.3	17.2	-0.91
Marc Gasol	82	83	0.71	-0.21	0.93	0.36	12	-11	23	17.0	19.1	-2.05	16.3	18.5	-2.18
Tony Allen	40	38	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.73	-6	7	-13	17.6	17.0	0.61	16.9	16.3	0.56
Mike Miller	45	45	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.55	-11	12	-23	17.0	17.6	-0.57	15.9	17.1	-1.28
Tayshaun Prince	44	45	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.03	6	-5	11	17.3	17.3	-0.00	17.4	15.8	1.58
Courtney Lee	63	63	-0.08	0.58	-0.66	-0.25	6	-5	11	17.2	17.5	-0.37	16.3	17.0	-0.65
Nick Calathes	19	20	-0.27	0.77	-1.05	-0.07	-7	8	-15	16.7	17.5	-0.77	17.2	16.3	0.91
Ed Davis	22	19	-0.41	0.91	-1.31	-0.03	-13	14	-27	17.5	17.2	0.32	17.0	16.4	0.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.53,0.59,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.71,0.68,0.63,0.62,0.58,0.62,0.56,0.54,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.62,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.58,0.38,0.33,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.35,0.33,0.39,0.54,0.68,0.91,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.15,0.41,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 103, MIL 108	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.6,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.46,0.45,0.85,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.68,0.58,1	88.2%
ATL 102, TOR 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.56,0.53,0.61,0.6,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.46,0.45,0.6,0.61,0.71,0.65,0.59,0.66,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.52,0.43,0.28,0.12,0.17,0.16,0.6,0.45,0.55,0.68,0.84,1	87.3%
HOU 109, MEM 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.49,0.48,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.72,1	87.0%