NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Memphis Grizzlies	103		Excitement	11.6 [17]		MVP	Zach Randolph (MEM): +34.3%
Milwaukee Bucks	108		Comeback	8.4 [192]		LVP	O.J. Mayo (MEM): -30.7%

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Zach Randolph	0.34	0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.35,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.34	0.10	0.24	-0.00	23	60%	0.43	4	-0.09	6	67%	0.03
Mike Conley	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.02,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.1,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.24,0.18,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07	-0.07	0.14	-0.00	19	43%	0.17	3	-0.10	4	100%	0.20
Darrell Arthur	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sam Young	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Hasheem Thabeet	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Williams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.06	-0.03	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Rudy Gay	-0.24	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.01	-0.24	-0.01	16	56%	0.04	4	-0.29	4	75%	0.00
Marc Gasol	-0.25	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.25	-0.06	-0.21	-0.02	8	61%	-0.03	5	-0.21	2	50%	-0.01
O.J. Mayo	-0.31	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.33,-0.34,-0.31	-0.08	-0.26	-0.03	18	42%	-0.04	3	-0.27	4	50%	-0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.19,0.16,0.14,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.2,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.08	0.18	-0.05	19	60%	0.40	2	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Andrew Bogut	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.02	0.01	11	64%	0.13	2	-0.06	6	67%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.01	8	70%	0.12	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.04
Ersan Ilyasova	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.14,0.14,0,0	-0.00	-0.03	0.02	0.00	7	57%	0.21	3	-0.21	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dan Gadzuric	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	4	50%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	6	44%	-0.01	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	2	17%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Brandon Jennings	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.07,0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.2,-0.29,-0.18	-0.18	0.02	-0.20	0.00	24	53%	-0.00	4	-0.18	7	86%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	23.8	2.4	30.5	15.6	24.2	2.7	40.1	1.8	18.8	159.9
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +44.4%

MEM -28.5%

MIL +4.5%

MIL +31.3%

MEM -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MEM	MIL	NBA	MEM	MIL	NBA
this game	14.8	15.9	15.3	100.0	103.8	106.0
season	15.4	15.5		106.8	103.3
opponent	15.5	15.0		101.8	108.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MEM	17.7	13.8	13.0	15.3	13.7	14.8
MIL	15.8	15.5	17.6	16.0	13.5	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Hasheem Thabeet	27	27	0.32	-0.82	1.15	0.09	8	-13	21	14.1	15.0	-0.90	14.3	16.5	-2.17
Sam Young	21	21	0.31	-0.81	1.13	0.05	9	-14	23	12.2	15.4	-3.19	17.1	15.7	1.44
Darrell Arthur	16	18	0.20	-0.70	0.90	0.11	3	-8	11	13.1	15.1	-1.96	17.4	15.6	1.82
Mike Conley	78	79	-0.23	-0.27	0.05	-0.37	5	-10	15	15.1	13.8	1.29	15.6	17.2	-1.60
Marcus Williams	27	27	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	0.06	-12	7	-19	13.9	15.1	-1.20	17.0	15.6	1.48
Rudy Gay	97	98	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.38	-6	1	-7	14.8	14.8	-0.06	15.9	16.8	-0.95
Zach Randolph	88	87	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.47	-8	3	-11	15.0	13.7	1.22	15.4	18.5	-3.02
O.J. Mayo	86	87	-0.76	0.26	-1.02	-0.38	-13	8	-21	15.4	11.6	3.75	15.7	17.0	-1.26
Marc Gasol	75	76	-0.80	0.30	-1.11	-0.48	-11	6	-17	15.2	13.7	1.41	16.7	13.8	2.90

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luke Ridnour	64	65	0.85	-0.35	1.20	0.47	13	-8	21	16.8	14.5	2.34	14.3	15.6	-1.35
Andrew Bogut	88	86	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.42	9	-4	13	15.6	17.6	-1.91	14.8	14.5	0.30
Brandon Jennings	84	81	0.59	-0.09	0.69	0.48	4	1	3	15.7	17.0	-1.37	15.0	14.0	1.05
John Salmons	96	95	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.32	7	-2	9	15.7	18.9	-3.18	15.1	11.4	3.69
Ersan Ilyasova	64	63	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.38	3	2	1	15.2	17.1	-1.96	15.1	14.2	0.90
Luc Mbah a Moute	20	20	0.06	0.44	-0.38	-0.03	3	2	1	16.7	15.7	1.00	15.2	14.7	0.59
Dan Gadzuric	8	8	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.03	-2	7	-9	18.9	15.7	3.18	11.4	15.1	-3.69
Charlie Bell	21	22	-0.04	0.54	-0.58	0.02	-2	7	-9	16.7	15.7	0.97	17.4	14.1	3.35
Kurt Thomas	28	29	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	8	-11	17.2	15.5	1.69	14.5	14.9	-0.41
Jerry Stackhouse	47	46	-0.43	0.93	-1.37	-0.23	-7	12	-19	15.3	16.4	-1.10	13.2	16.0	-2.78

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.49,0.44,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.52,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.69,0.73,0.74,0.6,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.42,0.27,0.26,0.19,0.27,0.25,0.46,0.45,0.85,0.46,0.45,0.37,0.68,0.58,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 109, MEM 114	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.53,0.56,0.52,0.53,0.53,0.49,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.55,0.63,0.49,0.48,0.61,0.62,0.62,0.52,0.51,0.44,0.36,0.38,0.34,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.26,0.19,0.22,0.32,0.36,0.33,0.73,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.32,0.72,1	90.0%
SAS 107, CLE 114	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.53,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.39,0.45,0.55,0.69,0.63,0.56,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.39,0.32,0.17,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.32,0.59,0.46,0.29,0.29,0.45,0.91,1	89.3%
MIN 95, SAC 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.29,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.67,0.72,1	88.9%