NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Minnesota Timberwolves	95		Excitement	12.2 [10]		MVP	Mike Wilks (MIN): +4.3%
Sacramento Kings	96		Comeback	4.7 [408]		LVP	Mike Bibby (SAC): -42.2%

Minnesota Timberwolves
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Wilks	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	2	67%	0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Gary Trent	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	4	50%	0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Joe Smith	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	57%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Rasho Nesterovic	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	14	45%	0.00	1	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Anthony Peeler	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendall Gill	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,-0.05,0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	0.01	-0.00	10	43%	0.00	3	-0.07	1	100%	0.02
Wally Szczerbiak	-0.29	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.17,-0.17,-0.22,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.2,-0.2,-0.29,-0.29	-0.11	-0.18	0.01	17	43%	-0.09	4	-0.20	3	100%	0.02
Troy Hudson	-0.31	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.31	-0.01	-0.27	0.04	19	42%	-0.31	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Garnett	-0.37	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.13,-0.14,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.19,-0.13,-0.13,-0.19,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.41,-0.35,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42,-0.37	-0.16	-0.23	-0.02	29	42%	-0.19	5	-0.18	6	83%	0.04

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bobby Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	8	50%	0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Doug Christie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0,0,0,-0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.05	-0.03	0.00	8	70%	0.11	1	-0.10	4	75%	-0.01
Peja Stojakovic	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.14,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	14	53%	-0.01	0	0.00	10	100%	0.18
Vlade Divac	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.02	-0.02	-0.05	0.02	-0.01	11	55%	0.09	3	-0.11	7	57%	-0.14
Keon Clark	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Webber	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.11,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.18,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.2,-0.09,0,-0.06	-0.06	-0.16	0.08	-0.03	31	38%	0.04	3	-0.10	4	75%	-0.03
Jim Jackson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	0.00	3	12%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Mike Bibby	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.42,-0.42,-0.42	-0.42	-0.08	-0.34	0.00	13	37%	-0.26	1	-0.16	4	75%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.2	3.5	30.4	18.3	27.7	3.7	38.1	2.4	21.2	170.5
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	1.9	17.2	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +49.4%

SAC +16.9%

MIN -34.5%

SAC +13.6%

SAC +4.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIN	SAC	NBA	MIN	SAC	NBA
this game	17.7	14.0	15.5	95.0	95.0	101.6
season	14.9	14.0		104.0	104.4
opponent	15.7	15.8		98.6	102.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIN	15.6	18.8	17.3	20.0	15.9	17.7
SAC	15.7	12.0	14.0	14.9	12.8	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Minnesota Timberwolves
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Gary Trent	27	29	0.33	-0.83	1.17	0.16	6	-7	13	19.4	17.1	2.29	14.2	13.8	0.39
Joe Smith	15	14	0.33	-0.83	1.17	0.16	6	-7	13	16.5	17.9	-1.45	15.7	13.7	2.04
Mike Wilks	26	26	0.26	-0.76	1.03	0.26	0	-1	1	19.2	17.2	1.96	15.1	13.6	1.56
Anthony Peeler	29	27	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.00	-3	2	-5	16.7	18.1	-1.47	14.2	13.9	0.31
Kevin Garnett	93	94	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.47	1	-2	3	17.6	18.7	-1.09	14.2	10.4	3.79
Wally Szczerbiak	94	95	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.44	-1	0	-1	17.6	19.7	-2.09	14.2	9.7	4.56
Troy Hudson	74	75	-0.76	0.26	-1.03	-0.73	-1	0	-1	17.2	19.2	-1.96	13.6	15.1	-1.56
Rasho Nesterovic	87	88	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.60	-6	5	-11	18.0	15.5	2.57	13.8	14.8	-0.93
Kendall Gill	55	57	-0.90	0.40	-1.29	-0.69	-7	6	-13	17.6	17.8	-0.26	12.6	15.7	-3.17

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	75	71	0.97	-0.47	1.43	0.70	9	-8	17	13.3	16.0	-2.75	17.1	19.1	-2.03
Doug Christie	80	80	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.63	4	-3	7	13.9	14.2	-0.29	16.7	21.7	-5.00
Chris Webber	88	86	0.73	-0.23	0.97	0.56	6	-5	11	14.2	12.0	2.25	17.5	18.9	-1.43
Vlade Divac	86	84	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.50	2	-1	3	13.7	15.2	-1.46	18.1	15.7	2.32
Peja Stojakovic	80	79	0.52	-0.02	0.55	0.49	1	0	1	14.1	13.4	0.73	17.6	17.9	-0.26
Keon Clark	28	30	-0.29	0.79	-1.09	-0.12	-6	7	-13	13.7	14.1	-0.34	17.2	17.9	-0.67
Jim Jackson	34	34	-0.30	0.80	-1.10	-0.21	-3	4	-7	14.1	13.9	0.24	20.0	16.5	3.44
Bobby Jackson	34	36	-0.43	0.93	-1.37	-0.20	-8	9	-17	15.1	13.4	1.79	19.1	16.9	2.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.6,0.57,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.6,0.52,0.48,0.55,0.48,0.61,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.64,0.6,0.58,0.43,0.29,0.24,0.32,0.31,0.24,0.22,0.31,0.37,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.45,0.63,0.67,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
CHI 85, MIL 93	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.6,0.61,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.6,0.53,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.61,0.69,0.79,0.7,0.7,0.63,0.58,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.52,0.54,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.16,0.17,0.24,0.17,0.31,0.28,0.1,0.41,0.54,0.67,0.63,0.84,0.96,1	90.2%
NYK 81, TOR 85	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.59,0.61,0.66,0.61,0.61,0.54,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.67,0.64,0.48,0.53,0.56,0.59,0.4,0.4,0.46,0.48,0.34,0.33,0.42,0.26,0.24,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.53,0.58,0.46,0.36,0.72,0.77,0.92,1	89.9%
ORL 98, BOS 103	0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.45,0.41,0.44,0.43,0.47,0.43,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.46,0.42,0.49,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.61,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.67,0.59,0.54,0.66,0.52,0.59,0.58,0.64,0.75,0.72,0.59,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.43,0.43,0.47,0.31,0.35,0.17,0.19,0.29,0.24,0.16,0.46,0.55,0.71,0.84,0.73,1	89.7%