NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	99		Excitement	12.6 [20]		MVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): +75.5%
Golden State Warriors	102		Comeback	6.9 [190]		LVP	Chandler Parsons (HOU): -37.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
James Harden	0.63	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.12,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.23,0.23,0.3,0.23,0.52,0.69,0.63,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.63	0.17	0.47	0.02	27	61%	0.69	2	-0.06	10	80%	0.05
Omer Asik	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.22,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.22,-0.22,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.09,0.01,0.01	-0.12	0.14	0.01	13	32%	0.06	2	-0.05	8	37%	-0.05
Omri Casspi	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.1	-0.04	-0.06	-0.00	5	30%	-0.05	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Terrence Jones	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	7	19%	-0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Patrick Beverley	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.00	6	17%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lin	-0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.02	-0.16	-0.00	8	50%	-0.09	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Chandler Parsons	-0.37	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.37	-0.07	-0.29	0.00	24	41%	-0.20	3	-0.17	3	67%	-0.00

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,-0.05,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.43,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.75	0.75	0.15	0.60	-0.01	15	74%	0.84	2	-0.08	4	100%	0.09
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.06	0.19	0.00	8	61%	0.25	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jordan Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	8	63%	0.09	1	-0.02	3	67%	-0.00
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.02	-0.01	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	0.02	0.01	18	33%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.02	0.02	4	40%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.06	0.00	5	31%	-0.09	1	-0.04	6	50%	-0.03
Jermaine O'Neal	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	6	17%	-0.13	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.03,-0.03,0.08,0,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.26	-0.26	-0.00	-0.25	0.01	22	55%	0.10	5	-0.36	7	86%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.1	1.8	35.9	18.4	27.4	3.4	34.6	2.7	20.0	172.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	1.9	17.6	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

GSW +74.3%

HOU -7.8%

HOU -58.4%

GSW +29.9%

GSW +12.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	GSW	NBA	HOU	GSW	NBA
this game	15.5	15.8	15.1	98.0	100.0	105.2
season	14.3	14.2		109.5	105.9
opponent	15.3	15.2		102.0	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
HOU	14.5	13.9	15.8	18.1	16.0	15.5
GSW	17.5	14.3	16.2	16.9	12.7	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeremy Lin	55	55	0.35	-0.85	1.20	0.03	11	-14	25	15.3	15.8	-0.56	16.2	15.3	0.98
Omer Asik	29	30	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.05	7	-10	17	15.4	15.6	-0.18	15.4	16.0	-0.59
Donatas Motiejunas	26	25	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-6	9	13.2	16.4	-3.22	15.4	15.9	-0.51
Omri Casspi	37	39	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.10	-3	0	-3	14.6	16.1	-1.50	14.8	16.4	-1.52
Terrence Jones	35	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	0.03	-12	9	-21	15.6	15.5	0.13	15.6	15.9	-0.22
Chandler Parsons	90	90	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.39	0	-3	3	15.4	16.4	-0.92	15.5	17.8	-2.32
James Harden	84	84	-0.41	-0.09	-0.32	-0.41	0	-3	3	16.0	13.4	2.56	16.2	13.7	2.50
Patrick Beverley	67	68	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.36	-8	5	-13	16.7	13.3	3.39	16.5	14.4	2.10
Dwight Howard	72	72	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.37	-10	7	-17	15.6	15.4	0.18	16.0	15.4	0.59

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jermaine O'Neal	70	69	0.71	-0.21	0.91	0.35	12	-9	21	16.4	14.4	2.01	16.0	14.6	1.44
Andre Iguodala	75	72	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.38	9	-6	15	15.6	16.4	-0.80	15.8	15.0	0.76
Stephen Curry	75	74	0.58	-0.08	0.65	0.25	11	-8	19	15.4	17.0	-1.60	15.6	15.3	0.34
David Lee	85	83	0.54	-0.04	0.59	0.19	12	-9	21	16.0	14.5	1.58	16.2	12.7	3.43
Klay Thompson	55	56	0.30	0.20	0.11	-0.05	12	-9	21	16.1	15.4	0.67	15.6	15.4	0.18
Draymond Green	25	25	-0.01	0.51	-0.51	0.17	-6	9	-15	14.0	16.4	-2.36	14.0	16.1	-2.05
Marreese Speights	13	14	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.06	-7	10	-17	16.2	15.7	0.51	14.3	15.7	-1.46
Jordan Crawford	26	26	-0.15	0.65	-0.81	0.02	-6	9	-15	17.6	15.2	2.46	15.7	15.5	0.25
Harrison Barnes	40	42	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.10	-12	15	-27	15.6	15.9	-0.30	14.8	16.1	-1.34
Steve Blake	35	35	-0.25	0.75	-1.00	0.19	-15	18	-33	15.7	15.8	-0.15	14.5	16.1	-1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.48,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.35,0.34,0.43,0.34,0.42,0.47,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.59,0.64,0.56,0.61,0.7,0.58,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.71,0.7,0.77,0.75,0.72,0.63,0.63,0.73,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.59,0.53,0.64,0.46,0.53,0.62,0.45,0.45,0.28,0.54,0.69,0.64,0.77,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 111, MIL 113	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.4,0.35,0.32,0.31,0.38,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.44,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.59,0.56,0.5,0.59,0.66,0.72,0.78,0.73,0.77,0.74,0.76,0.73,0.77,0.75,0.62,0.62,0.47,0.58,0.63,0.53,0.29,0.27,0.52,0.55,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.75,0.84,0.86,0.58,1	90.5%
WAS 105, ATL 117	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.43,0.37,0.4,0.45,0.4,0.37,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.59,0.59,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.49,0.51,0.54,0.55,0.61,0.67,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.79,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.78,0.62,0.57,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.54,0.58,0.53,0.54,0.32,0.16,0.46,0.67,0.63,0.91,1,1	89.9%
UTA 119, SEA 129	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.57,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.54,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.39,0.41,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.71,0.65,0.69,0.66,0.63,0.69,0.62,0.57,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.59,0.6,0.53,0.47,0.36,0.11,0.1,0.54,0.61,0.46,0.84,1,1	89.5%