NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	111		Excitement	8.9 [145]		MVP	LeBron James (MIA): +112.1%
Golden State Warriors	110		Comeback	4.3 [284]		LVP	Chris Bosh (MIA): -9.4%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	1.12	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.13,0.07,0.01,0.01,1.12	0.15	0.97	0.00	26	61%	1.22	2	-0.10	7	57%	-0.09
Ray Allen	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.06	0.09	-0.00	7	64%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Chalmers	0.15	0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.01	0.12	-0.01	7	67%	0.20	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Chris Andersen	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	-0.00	3	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Michael Beasley	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.07	-0.02	-0.01	11	67%	0.10	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Norris Cole	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.01	-0.00	6	67%	0.07	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Toney Douglas	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	25%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Shane Battier	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Oden	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	-0.02	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Chris Bosh	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.09,-0.09	0.02	-0.09	0.03	14	61%	0.11	4	-0.20	3	100%	0.02

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Stephen Curry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.13,0.27,0.2,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.05,0.62	0.62	0.14	0.49	0.02	14	78%	0.78	5	-0.17	9	100%	0.08
Harrison Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.05	-0.00	11	58%	0.12	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.01	0.07	-0.00	7	64%	0.15	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	0.03	15	53%	0.05	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan Crawford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	0.01	0.00	9	47%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
David Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.04,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.01	0.01	15	55%	0.10	3	-0.10	8	62%	-0.05
Draymond Green	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	7	50%	0.01	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Marreese Speights	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	5	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.6	1.7	28.7	14.8	28.6	2.7	34.0	136.0
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +88.5%

GSW -20.8%

GSW -16.7%

GSW -5.8%

MIA +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	GSW	NBA	MIA	GSW	NBA
this game	16.7	13.2	15.1	115.6	113.4	105.2
season	15.6	14.2		109.7	105.9
opponent	15.3	15.8		102.0	105.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIA	16.1	14.6	17.0	19.3	16.7
GSW	12.7	13.7	13.0	13.4	13.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Bosh	73	73	0.81	-0.31	1.11	0.63	6	-5	11	17.2	14.9	2.36	13.6	11.9	1.70
Shane Battier	35	34	0.51	-0.01	0.53	0.48	1	0	1	17.1	16.4	0.75	12.8	13.4	-0.57
Mario Chalmers	66	69	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.35	3	-2	5	16.9	16.1	0.82	12.8	14.2	-1.38
LeBron James	85	86	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.48	-2	3	-5	16.7	16.6	0.03	13.0	14.6	-1.62
Ray Allen	60	59	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.53	-8	9	-17	17.4	15.4	2.00	13.4	12.8	0.58
Michael Beasley	48	49	0.24	0.26	-0.01	-0.05	10	-9	19	16.2	17.1	-0.92	13.9	12.5	1.42
Toney Douglas	23	24	0.13	0.37	-0.24	-0.02	5	-4	9	15.5	17.0	-1.51	12.9	13.3	-0.43
Norris Cole	51	51	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	4	-7	16.0	17.4	-1.34	13.3	13.1	0.12
Greg Oden	8	9	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	4	-7	11.9	17.1	-5.23	13.0	13.2	-0.22
Chris Andersen	31	31	-0.25	0.75	-1.01	-0.14	-4	5	-9	16.6	16.7	-0.08	12.7	13.4	-0.76

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
David Lee	63	64	0.53	-1.03	1.56	0.29	8	-9	17	13.6	12.4	1.16	17.5	15.0	2.50
Marreese Speights	28	26	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.01	-6	5	-11	13.1	13.2	-0.12	15.4	17.1	-1.71
Andre Iguodala	80	78	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	-0.43	6	-7	13	13.1	13.4	-0.26	16.9	15.6	1.37
Stephen Curry	78	79	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.42	4	-5	9	13.0	13.9	-0.87	16.7	16.4	0.31
Jordan Crawford	38	39	-0.34	-0.16	-0.19	-0.08	-9	8	-17	12.9	13.4	-0.41	15.5	17.5	-1.94
Harrison Barnes	59	59	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.44	3	-4	7	12.9	13.6	-0.72	17.1	15.9	1.17
Klay Thompson	72	70	-0.47	-0.03	-0.43	-0.53	2	-3	5	13.4	12.5	0.96	17.2	15.3	1.81
Draymond Green	67	65	-1.09	0.59	-1.69	-0.71	-13	12	-25	13.2	13.1	0.09	15.7	18.6	-2.92

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.38,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.42,0.34,0.32,0.32,0.31,0.29,0.28,0.3,0.27,0.19,0.28,0.39,0.36,0.2,0.24,0.21,0.15,0.05,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.16,0.23,0.29,0.32,0.42,0.62,0.43,0.24,0.23,0.17,0.11,0.18,0.15,0.37,0.31,0.57,0
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 95, POR 88	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.41,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.25,0.2,0.12,0.15,0.16,0.22,0.3,0.24,0.18,0.15,0.21,0.2,0.3,0.29,0.46,0.48,0.29,0.29,0.27,0.21,0.29,0.47,0.31,0.29,0.2,0.43,0	90.5%
LAL 107, POR 106	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.39,0.44,0.38,0.43,0.32,0.26,0.23,0.22,0.25,0.24,0.24,0.23,0.25,0.33,0.3,0.36,0.39,0.28,0.39,0.3,0.3,0.37,0.31,0.22,0.25,0.27,0.23,0.23,0.24,0.23,0.3,0.28,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.24,0.12,0.1,0.09,0.12,0.19,0.22,0.33,0.42,0	89.7%
OKC 94, ATL 91	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.35,0.38,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.35,0.26,0.27,0.35,0.24,0.33,0.36,0.46,0.32,0.28,0.2,0.13,0.12,0.21,0.19,0.28,0.17,0.13,0.21,0.34,0.43,0.38,0.33,0.28,0.22,0.15,0.33,0.36,0.37,0.22,0.16,0	89.5%