NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Utah Jazz	93		Excitement	3.0 [1184]		MVP	Samuel Dalembert (DAL): +9.4%
Dallas Mavericks	103		Comeback	1.1 [1254]		LVP	Gordon Hayward (UTA): -9.3%

Utah Jazz
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeremy Evans	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.12	0.00	0.03	7	100%	0.10	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Diante Garrett	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	3	117%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.13	0.00	0.10	13	66%	0.03	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Derrick Favors	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.01	8	59%	0.05	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.01
John Lucas III	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trey Burke	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.08	0.00	-0.05	8	29%	-0.02	2	-0.01	1	100%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	8	44%	0.01	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Alec Burks	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	0.06	10	55%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Enes Kanter	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	6	17%	-0.05	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gordon Hayward	-0.09	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.08	-0.03	-0.01	12	50%	-0.04	5	-0.06	2	100%	0.01

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Samuel Dalembert	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.09	0.01	0.01	8	90%	0.11	3	-0.02	4	50%	-0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.02	7	62%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	14	51%	0.06	1	-0.00	7	100%	0.01
Jose Calderon	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.00	3	83%	0.07	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.02	-0.00	-0.01	19	54%	0.06	3	-0.03	10	90%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.01	-0.05	9	42%	0.03	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Shane Larkin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	2	40%	0.03	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Wayne Ellington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	9	55%	0.03	3	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.8	2.4	29.2	16.6	26.3	1.7	29.3	127.4
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +32.6%

DAL +3.7%

DAL +7.7%

DAL +3.4%

DAL +2.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	UTA	DAL	NBA	UTA	DAL	NBA
this game	16.7	15.6	15.1	105.7	114.4	105.2
season	16.2	15.3		102.1	109.0
opponent	15.0	14.8		107.0	109.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
UTA	19.1	15.2	16.0	16.9	16.7
DAL	14.5	13.6	16.7	18.2	15.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Utah Jazz
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Diante Garrett	27	28	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.31	10	-20	30	17.4	16.4	0.93	16.8	15.1	1.66
Jeremy Evans	29	30	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.23	5	-15	20	17.1	16.5	0.56	15.7	15.6	0.08
Trey Burke	38	39	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-9	8	14.9	18.1	-3.23	15.8	15.5	0.31
Marvin Williams	56	58	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.42	8	-18	26	16.7	16.7	0.01	16.6	14.0	2.60
Alec Burks	48	51	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-13	16	16.8	16.7	0.10	15.9	15.3	0.55
Enes Kanter	38	38	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.19	-17	7	-24	18.0	15.8	2.24	14.7	16.3	-1.66
John Lucas III	23	23	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	0.19	-19	9	-28	19.0	15.9	3.08	14.0	16.2	-2.27
Gordon Hayward	63	65	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.06	-11	1	-12	16.4	17.6	-1.22	15.8	15.3	0.45
Derrick Favors	63	65	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.07	-11	1	-12	15.9	18.8	-2.84	15.6	15.9	-0.33
Richard Jefferson	55	53	-0.42	-0.08	-0.35	0.07	-17	7	-24	16.9	16.4	0.53	15.0	16.5	-1.52

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dirk Nowitzki	61	58	0.49	0.01	0.47	0.13	12	-2	14	15.1	16.8	-1.69	16.8	16.7	0.09
Monta Ellis	71	71	0.42	0.08	0.35	0.10	11	-1	12	15.8	15.2	0.55	16.5	17.6	-1.14
Jose Calderon	54	54	0.39	0.11	0.29	0.10	10	0	10	16.6	14.2	2.42	16.6	16.9	-0.20
Shawn Marion	58	60	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.02	12	-2	14	16.2	14.7	1.53	16.7	16.8	-0.09
Samuel Dalembert	51	53	0.36	0.14	0.23	-0.02	13	-3	16	16.1	15.0	1.14	16.7	16.7	0.02
DeJuan Blair	39	35	0.14	0.36	-0.23	0.22	-3	13	-16	15.0	16.1	-1.14	16.7	16.7	-0.02
Wayne Ellington	11	11	0.12	0.38	-0.26	-0.03	5	5	0	13.2	16.0	-2.81	17.9	16.6	1.35
Shane Larkin	31	28	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	9	-8	14.1	16.5	-2.41	16.6	16.8	-0.12
Jae Crowder	33	30	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	10	-10	15.8	15.6	0.18	16.6	16.8	-0.24
Vince Carter	41	40	0.01	0.49	-0.47	0.34	-11	21	-32	16.0	15.4	0.61	17.1	16.4	0.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.87,0.9,0.99,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 92, NYK 104	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.95,0.97,1,1	96.6%
PHX 120, BOS 130	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.61,0.63,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.76,0.71,0.75,0.78,0.83,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.9,0.91,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.97,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.94,1,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	96.3%
CLE 79, MIA 83	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.92,1	96.2%