NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	92		Excitement	3.4 [1111]		MVP	Wilson Chandler (NYK): +12.7%
New York Knicks	104		Comeback	1.0 [384]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): -10.7%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Arron Afflalo	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.15	0.01	0.06	10	77%	0.10	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	0.09	0.00	0.08	19	57%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Richard Hamilton	0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.06	0.00	0.05	12	62%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.00
Amir Johnson	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	3	33%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kwame Brown	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	0	0%	0.00	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.08	0.00	-0.04	9	33%	-0.02	2	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	1	25%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Walter Herrmann	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	6	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Allen Iverson	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.00	18	40%	-0.06	1	-0.01	7	71%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	11	27%	-0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.03	-0.03	13	59%	0.16	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Chris Duhon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.12	-0.02	0.05	14	74%	0.07	2	-0.02	6	100%	0.02
Quentin Richardson	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.09	-0.01	0.03	14	62%	0.10	2	-0.06	9	67%	-0.02
David Lee	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.04	8	57%	0.06	4	-0.04	5	80%	0.01
Tim Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	5	46%	0.02	1	-0.01	3	67%	-0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	14	64%	0.04	4	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.12	0.00	-0.04	7	19%	-0.04	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.8	1.8	32.0	17.0	23.2	2.7	31.3	132.8
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

NYK +50.3%

NYK +2.3%

NYK +13.0%

DET -19.4%

NYK +3.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	NYK	NBA	DET	NYK	NBA
this game	15.9	15.3	15.5	100.0	111.8	106.4
season	16.9	13.8		104.9	106.2
opponent	15.5	15.7		109.1	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	17.7	16.0	16.1	13.6	15.9
NYK	12.3	14.7	16.6	17.7	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Walter Herrmann	23	23	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.19	6	-18	24	13.6	16.6	-3.06	17.7	14.5	3.27
Amir Johnson	16	18	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.01	-3	-9	6	15.2	16.0	-0.81	13.2	15.8	-2.55
Will Bynum	13	13	-0.11	-0.39	0.27	-0.03	-3	-9	6	15.2	16.0	-0.82	15.0	15.3	-0.33
Rodney Stuckey	32	33	-0.15	-0.35	0.20	-0.03	-4	-8	4	16.7	15.4	1.37	15.8	15.0	0.79
Jason Maxiell	17	18	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.08	-8	-4	-4	16.3	15.8	0.53	14.9	15.4	-0.48
Arron Afflalo	50	51	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.25	2	-14	16	14.5	17.5	-2.93	16.0	14.4	1.64
Kwame Brown	21	20	-0.21	-0.29	0.09	0.15	-12	0	-12	17.8	15.3	2.47	12.9	15.9	-3.03
Richard Hamilton	56	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.12	-7	-5	-2	16.9	14.3	2.55	14.5	16.4	-1.91
Allen Iverson	80	81	-0.37	-0.13	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-6	0	16.0	15.2	0.80	15.5	13.7	1.76
Rasheed Wallace	61	61	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	0.01	-14	2	-16	15.8	16.0	-0.16	15.5	14.9	0.52
Tayshaun Prince	91	91	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.15	-11	-1	-10	15.9	13.0	2.89	15.3	16.5	-1.25

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Duhon	93	92	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.15	12	0	12	15.3	0.0	15.28	15.9	0.0	15.86
Al Harrington	69	67	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.03	16	-4	20	14.9	16.5	-1.64	15.8	16.1	-0.30
David Lee	72	71	0.46	0.04	0.43	-0.12	20	-8	28	15.4	14.7	0.73	16.2	14.8	1.42
Wilson Chandler	78	78	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.12	9	3	6	15.2	15.8	-0.62	15.8	15.9	-0.08
Quentin Richardson	74	73	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.23	3	9	-6	15.4	14.9	0.42	15.5	17.2	-1.70
Tim Thomas	37	38	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.09	5	7	-2	15.4	15.2	0.16	16.0	15.7	0.29
Jared Jeffries	42	41	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.24	-5	17	-22	15.6	15.0	0.66	15.9	15.8	0.12

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.67,0.69,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.79,0.8,0.81,0.84,0.87,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.93,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.93,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.95,0.97,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 93, DAL 103	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.57,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.69,0.73,0.72,0.76,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.81,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.87,0.9,0.94,0.94,0.96,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.97,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.91,0.87,0.94,0.92,0.97,0.87,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	96.6%
CLE 79, MIA 83	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.92,1	95.7%
CLE 95, SEA 101	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.66,0.66,0.74,0.73,0.72,0.73,0.73,0.73,0.8,0.85,0.82,0.84,0.88,0.85,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.94,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.95,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.94,0.93,0.94,0.89,0.96,1,1	95.7%