NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	104		Excitement	7.2 [390]		MVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): +27.0%
Miami Heat	110		Comeback	1.8 [996]		LVP	Monta Ellis (DAL): -19.8%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dirk Nowitzki	0.27	0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.13	0.16	0.02	12	82%	0.37	5	-0.10	10	90%	0.14
Vince Carter	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.10	0.06	0.03	12	75%	0.21	3	-0.08	4	100%	0.03
Ricky Ledo	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jose Calderon	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,-0.01,-0.02	0.00	-0.03	-0.01	10	60%	0.15	3	-0.17	0	0%	0.00
Samuel Dalembert	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.00	6	67%	0.01	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	10	43%	0.02	1	-0.07	1	100%	0.00
Jae Crowder	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Gal Mekel	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Monta Ellis	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.2	-0.05	-0.17	-0.01	16	53%	-0.01	5	-0.19	6	67%	-0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LeBron James	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.22,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.21,0.26,0.26,0.27	0.27	0.21	0.11	0.06	18	83%	0.48	6	-0.21	11	91%	0.01
Rashard Lewis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.09	0.09	-0.00	6	92%	0.20	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Norris Cole	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.05	0.00	4	92%	0.18	3	-0.09	4	100%	0.03
Chris Bosh	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.01	11	50%	0.07	0	0.00	6	100%	0.04
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	-0.00	14	49%	0.05	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.11
Chris Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.02	0.00	4	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Beasley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Mario Chalmers	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	0.00	8	25%	-0.07	4	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.1	2.5	28.4	15.3	25.6	2.4	42.3	143.6
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +29.7%

DAL -6.0%

DAL -2.9%

MIA +32.9%

DAL -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	MIA	NBA	DAL	MIA	NBA
this game	14.9	13.7	15.1	104.0	108.9	105.2
season	15.3	15.6		109.0	109.7
opponent	15.8	15.0		105.1	107.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.6	15.0	14.3	15.9	14.9
MIA	11.3	13.8	16.3	14.1	13.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shawn Marion	61	63	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.19	8	-14	22	15.3	14.3	1.00	14.2	13.1	1.11
Samuel Dalembert	40	41	0.05	-0.55	0.59	-0.13	6	-12	18	15.8	14.3	1.47	13.9	13.7	0.19
Ricky Ledo	0	1	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	-0.06	2	-8	10	0.0	14.9	-14.92	7.0	13.8	-6.81
Jose Calderon	74	74	-0.03	-0.47	0.45	-0.32	10	-16	26	15.2	14.1	1.09	14.1	12.9	1.17
Gal Mekel	13	14	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	0.00	-6	0	-6	15.4	14.9	0.53	10.9	14.2	-3.27
Dirk Nowitzki	74	73	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.35	-1	-5	4	15.5	13.3	2.13	13.9	13.3	0.58
Jae Crowder	36	37	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.02	-15	9	-24	13.3	15.8	-2.57	12.8	14.3	-1.43
Monta Ellis	85	86	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.30	-6	0	-6	15.1	14.1	0.93	13.9	13.1	0.79
Vince Carter	59	59	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.10	-15	9	-24	13.9	16.4	-2.49	13.6	14.0	-0.36
DeJuan Blair	58	57	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.16	-13	7	-20	14.6	15.4	-0.79	14.0	13.5	0.51

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rashard Lewis	61	60	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.21	15	-9	24	13.7	13.8	-0.05	14.8	15.0	-0.17
Norris Cole	56	54	0.64	-0.14	0.77	0.28	12	-6	18	13.6	14.0	-0.38	14.9	14.9	0.01
Chris Andersen	40	38	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.08	15	-9	24	13.7	13.8	-0.03	14.6	15.1	-0.51
Michael Beasley	35	34	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.07	11	-5	16	14.1	13.6	0.53	14.0	15.4	-1.44
LeBron James	76	77	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.34	0	6	-6	13.7	13.8	-0.02	15.0	14.6	0.40
Dwyane Wade	77	75	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.28	-2	8	-10	13.4	15.0	-1.65	15.2	14.1	1.12
Chris Bosh	61	62	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.25	-9	15	-24	13.8	13.7	0.03	15.1	14.6	0.51
Mario Chalmers	49	51	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.06	-6	12	-18	14.3	13.2	1.02	15.3	14.5	0.76
Shane Battier	50	49	-0.14	0.64	-0.78	0.04	-6	12	-18	13.8	13.7	0.15	14.7	15.1	-0.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.44,0.56,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.79,0.78,0.9,1
Game		Similarity Score
GSW 89, VAN 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.71,0.97,1,1	92.6%
IND 98, MIL 102	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.78,0.98,1	92.6%
TOR 106, CHI 113	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.53,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.8,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.65,0.69,0.56,0.63,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.86,0.89,0.88,0.87,0.8,0.78,0.86,0.84,0.87,0.99,1	92.0%