NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	98		Excitement	7.7 [293]		MVP	Vin Baker (MIL): +12.7%
Milwaukee Bucks	102		Comeback	1.4 [444]		LVP	Duane Ferrell (IND): -22.6%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rik Smits	0.10	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.07	0.04	0.01	14	75%	0.22	4	-0.11	4	100%	0.03
Antonio Davis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	9	50%	-0.01	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.04
LaSalle Thompson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0	100%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Mark Jackson	-0.02	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.12,0,0,-0.02	0.04	-0.04	0.03	10	74%	0.18	3	-0.20	3	100%	0.04
Reggie Miller	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.24,-0.19,-0.19,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.01	14	50%	0.07	1	-0.10	12	75%	0.04
Jalen Rose	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Erick Dampier	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.02	3	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Travis Best	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	0.00	4	33%	-0.05	1	-0.03	4	50%	-0.02
Duane Ferrell	-0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.15,-0.15,-0.21,-0.17,-0.17,-0.23,-0.23	-0.09	-0.14	-0.00	15	42%	-0.13	2	-0.09	6	83%	0.03

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Vin Baker	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.04,0.13	0.13	0.02	0.11	-0.00	15	60%	0.23	3	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Ray Allen	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.07	0.03	0.05	0.00	3	82%	0.09	1	-0.02	5	100%	0.05
Johnny Newman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	-0.06	0.11	0.00	12	50%	0.15	3	-0.09	4	75%	-0.00
Glenn Robinson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.08,0.09,-0.01,0.02,0.04	0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	14	71%	0.19	3	-0.15	14	86%	0.06
Armen Gilliam	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	12	62%	0.06	1	-0.03	5	40%	-0.04
Joe Wolf	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chucky Brown	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0	100%	0.02	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Elliot Perry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.07	0.04	-0.00	3	50%	0.05	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Sherman Douglas	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.11	-0.05	-0.01	9	32%	-0.11	2	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	1.5	32.5	15.7	29.4	2.5	40.3	145.0
league avg	32.7	2.1	23.2	15.3	25.7	2.1	33.1	135.6

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +48.0%

IND -8.1%

IND -9.8%

MIL +23.7%

IND -3.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	MIL	NBA	IND	MIL	NBA
this game	14.5	16.8	15.6	106.5	110.9	104.4
season	15.3	16.0		103.6	103.9
opponent	15.5	16.3		106.0	101.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.5	15.4	15.5	12.7	14.5
MIL	18.3	14.0	17.3	17.9	16.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dale Davis	59	59	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	-0.27	9	-13	22	13.9	15.5	-1.60	17.4	15.8	1.55
Rik Smits	70	71	-0.01	-0.49	0.47	-0.31	10	-14	24	13.5	17.5	-4.02	18.2	12.0	6.18
Mark Jackson	70	68	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	-0.33	9	-13	22	13.1	19.0	-5.93	17.1	15.9	1.27
Reggie Miller	75	75	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.40	9	-13	22	14.1	16.3	-2.21	17.7	13.0	4.68
LaSalle Thompson	17	15	-0.14	-0.36	0.22	-0.02	-4	0	-4	16.0	14.1	1.85	13.3	17.5	-4.24
Erick Dampier	19	19	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.11	-6	2	-8	16.9	13.8	3.10	14.2	17.5	-3.35
Duane Ferrell	82	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.33	-1	-3	2	14.3	16.3	-2.03	17.1	15.0	2.06
Jalen Rose	26	27	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.03	-14	10	-24	16.5	13.7	2.86	15.4	17.4	-2.05
Travis Best	24	26	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.08	-13	9	-22	18.0	13.2	4.75	14.7	17.7	-3.01
Antonio Davis	18	19	-0.59	0.09	-0.68	-0.03	-19	15	-34	16.7	14.0	2.71	14.6	17.4	-2.75

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Glenn Robinson	82	81	0.64	-0.14	0.78	0.41	8	-4	12	16.2	22.0	-5.82	14.3	16.1	-1.82
Vin Baker	88	88	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.35	5	-1	6	16.6	20.7	-4.11	14.4	16.5	-2.10
Armen Gilliam	70	70	0.48	0.02	0.46	0.28	7	-3	10	17.7	14.1	3.52	14.1	15.8	-1.75
Sherman Douglas	67	67	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.27	5	-1	6	16.7	17.0	-0.25	13.6	17.0	-3.45
Johnny Newman	79	80	0.41	0.09	0.33	0.36	2	2	0	16.9	16.5	0.41	14.4	15.0	-0.59
Elliot Perry	27	27	0.11	0.39	-0.28	0.14	-1	5	-6	15.7	17.3	-1.52	16.3	13.8	2.51
Chucky Brown	23	24	0.05	0.45	-0.41	0.05	0	4	-4	17.1	16.7	0.42	17.9	13.3	4.64
Joe Wolf	6	6	0.00	0.50	-0.49	0.03	-1	5	-6	13.8	17.0	-3.19	16.3	14.4	1.97
Ray Allen	18	17	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.04	-5	9	-14	19.5	16.2	3.34	13.5	14.7	-1.25

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.44,0.57,0.53,0.6,0.64,0.6,0.51,0.53,0.63,0.69,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.7,0.7,0.65,0.55,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.68,0.7,0.78,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.64,0.65,0.6,0.55,0.64,0.78,0.98,1
Game		Similarity Score
DAL 104, MIA 110	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.41,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.47,0.53,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.74,0.69,0.77,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.76,0.73,0.65,0.68,0.62,0.44,0.56,0.75,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.67,0.73,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.79,0.78,0.9,1	92.6%
GSW 89, VAN 99	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.43,0.43,0.35,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.53,0.62,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.61,0.62,0.64,0.74,0.75,0.78,0.78,0.76,0.72,0.7,0.7,0.73,0.71,0.74,0.69,0.66,0.71,0.71,0.81,0.87,0.82,0.76,0.77,0.74,0.71,0.6,0.61,0.71,0.97,1,1	92.2%
OKC 98, CHI 104	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.34,0.38,0.43,0.43,0.51,0.42,0.43,0.42,0.47,0.58,0.6,0.7,0.63,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.7,0.64,0.65,0.68,0.56,0.52,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.66,0.87,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.84,0.98,1	91.4%