NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	94		Excitement	10.0 [64]		MVP	Andre Miller (DEN): +24.6%
Denver Nuggets	95		Comeback	4.9 [348]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -20.5%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Darren Collison	0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.06,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.00	0.13	-0.00	9	52%	0.17	1	-0.04	3	100%	0.05
Jae Crowder	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.03	-0.00	2	75%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Kaman	0.06	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.02	0.05	0.01	11	54%	0.08	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Brandan Wright	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.03	-0.01	13	52%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Vince Carter	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.1,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.03	0.00	14	39%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.01	-0.01	11	45%	0.05	1	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Anthony Morrow	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0	0.05	-0.05	0.00	5	70%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	-0.14	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	7	43%	-0.00	3	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.2	0.01	-0.21	0.00	10	65%	0.02	3	-0.22	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.15,0.25,0.25	0.25	0.10	0.15	0.01	15	63%	0.26	1	-0.02	5	60%	-0.10
Andre Iguodala	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,0.19	0.19	-0.14	0.32	-0.01	13	29%	0.27	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.17,0.14,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.08	-0.04	-0.00	17	55%	0.05	0	0.00	8	87%	0.04
Anthony Randolph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	7	45%	0.02	1	-0.01	6	50%	-0.03
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	8	25%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Evan Fournier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	6	23%	-0.01	1	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.03,0.03,-0.16	-0.16	-0.03	-0.14	-0.01	11	40%	-0.16	0	0.00	8	50%	-0.37
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.18	-0.18	0.01	-0.19	0.00	6	67%	-0.11	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.5	30.6	16.3	24.5	1.8	33.1	131.9
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL -2.3%

DAL -6.8%

DEN +37.3%

DEN +21.4%

DEN +0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	DEN	NBA	DAL	DEN	NBA
this game	16.6	15.8	15.4	105.6	106.7	104.1
season	14.5	14.4		104.3	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.6		104.0	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.9	15.4	18.5	17.5	16.6
DEN	17.0	15.9	15.0	15.2	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Chris Kaman	41	43	0.24	-0.74	0.98	-0.05	10	-11	21	16.1	17.0	-0.84	18.4	13.3	5.14
Anthony Morrow	23	22	0.16	-0.66	0.82	0.07	3	-4	7	18.5	15.9	2.57	14.7	16.1	-1.47
Darren Collison	57	58	0.06	-0.56	0.62	0.15	-3	2	-5	16.6	16.5	0.16	14.7	17.9	-3.25
Mike James	45	45	-0.05	-0.45	0.40	-0.20	5	-6	11	15.9	17.2	-1.29	17.4	14.2	3.22
O.J. Mayo	39	43	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	0.09	-6	5	-11	16.1	17.0	-0.93	17.1	14.5	2.62
Vince Carter	47	47	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	-0.46	11	-12	23	16.3	16.8	-0.49	15.8	15.8	0.00
Shawn Marion	50	50	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.46	10	-11	21	16.1	17.2	-1.13	17.2	14.0	3.13
Brandan Wright	47	46	-0.82	0.32	-1.15	-0.44	-13	12	-25	16.9	16.2	0.63	13.3	18.4	-5.14
Jae Crowder	27	25	-0.84	0.34	-1.17	-0.42	-14	13	-27	17.5	16.2	1.30	12.6	17.0	-4.49
Dirk Nowitzki	69	66	-0.87	0.37	-1.23	-0.63	-8	7	-15	16.8	15.7	1.13	15.4	17.0	-1.64

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kenneth Faried	70	71	0.74	-0.24	0.98	0.53	7	-6	13	16.1	14.5	1.60	16.3	17.7	-1.44
Corey Brewer	63	65	0.62	-0.12	0.74	0.47	5	-4	9	15.2	17.1	-1.88	17.3	14.7	2.55
Wilson Chandler	38	39	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.49	4	-3	7	14.0	17.1	-3.16	18.0	15.4	2.59
Andre Iguodala	74	73	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.47	1	0	1	15.8	15.9	-0.18	16.8	15.6	1.23
Andre Miller	59	60	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.56	-5	6	-11	16.5	14.3	2.19	16.2	17.3	-1.04
Anthony Randolph	6	6	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.00	6	-5	11	13.3	16.0	-2.63	12.3	16.9	-4.55
Evan Fournier	38	36	0.02	0.48	-0.45	-0.12	5	-4	9	14.0	17.1	-3.12	17.1	16.2	0.95
Danilo Gallinari	31	30	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.04	-3	4	-7	18.4	14.4	3.99	14.1	17.8	-3.73
JaVale McGee	28	29	-0.18	0.68	-0.86	-0.09	-3	4	-7	13.9	16.6	-2.71	17.7	16.0	1.71
Kosta Koufos	38	36	-0.34	0.84	-1.18	0.01	-12	13	-25	18.2	14.0	4.23	15.7	17.2	-1.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.46,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.45,0.39,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.51,0.46,0.39,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.42,0.45,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.31,0.41,0.23,0.24,0.22,0.22,0.21,0.33,0.42,0.36,0.24,0.33,0.45,0.29,0.23,0.26,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 96, MIN 98	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.37,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.36,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.46,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.46,0.52,0.42,0.39,0.32,0.26,0.38,0.37,0.4,0.25,0.3,0.22,0.29,0.47,0.47,0.37,0.24,0.39,0.45,0.37,0.23,0.42,1	92.9%
PHX 114, SEA 116	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.48,0.4,0.36,0.43,0.43,0.45,0.44,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.51,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.39,0.46,0.51,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.37,0.36,0.33,0.45,0.38,0.36,0.25,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.4,0.38,0.25,0.32,0.31,0.12,0.22,0.36,0.28,0.31,0.28,1	92.2%
VAN 85, SEA 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.44,0.4,0.44,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.44,0.37,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.35,0.41,0.43,0.41,0.4,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.33,0.29,0.42,0.36,0.46,0.22,0.31,0.16,0.11,0.42,1	91.6%