NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	108		Excitement	8.3 [215]		MVP	O.J. Mayo (DAL): +24.2%
Dallas Mavericks	112		Comeback	1.6 [657]		LVP	Patrick Beverley (HOU): -17.0%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Chandler Parsons	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.13,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.15	0.09	0.01	15	72%	0.25	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Thomas Robinson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.05	0.05	-0.00	6	67%	0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
James Harden	0.10	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.23,0.23,0.36,0.1	0.08	0.03	0.01	17	56%	0.16	2	-0.06	16	100%	0.17
Omer Asik	0.03	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.00	5	57%	0.06	1	-0.03	11	36%	-0.11
Francisco Garcia	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	-0.00	6	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jeremy Lin	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	-0.01	10	57%	0.07	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.00
Donatas Motiejunas	-0.04	0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.01	0.01	8	41%	-0.02	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.00
Carlos Delfino	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05	0.04	-0.09	-0.01	9	61%	0.04	1	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Beverley	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.07	-0.10	0.00	2	0%	-0.07	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
O.J. Mayo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.01,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.08	0.16	0.00	10	65%	0.24	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.10	0.14	-0.01	9	76%	0.30	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.25,0.25,0.22,0.22,0.15,0.15,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.11	0.04	0.01	16	63%	0.16	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.01
Elton Brand	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.08	0.03	0.00	5	82%	0.11	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brandan Wright	0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	0.00	0.01	7	86%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04	0.04	0.08	-0.03	0.01	16	59%	0.06	1	-0.01	5	40%	-0.08
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.03	0.01	8	50%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08	-0.08	-0.05	-0.04	0.00	6	50%	0.01	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.02
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	6	25%	-0.06	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.0	1.8	34.2	7.0	30.2	2.0	42.2	141.2
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +60.2%

HOU -23.0%

HOU -3.2%

DAL +20.0%

HOU -4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	DAL	NBA	HOU	DAL	NBA
this game	15.4	15.3	15.4	116.1	117.9	104.1
season	14.2	14.5		107.9	104.3
opponent	15.6	15.4		105.0	105.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	15.5	16.2	11.3	19.1	15.4
DAL	14.0	15.1	16.8	15.1	15.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	43	43	0.11	-0.61	0.73	0.03	3	-7	10	16.3	14.6	1.70	15.3	15.3	-0.03
Omer Asik	46	49	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.07	-2	-2	0	13.4	17.3	-3.95	15.5	15.0	0.45
Patrick Beverley	42	42	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-7	10	17.1	14.0	3.11	15.2	15.3	-0.11
Carlos Delfino	38	38	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.33	4	-8	12	17.2	14.1	3.08	15.3	15.2	0.07
Thomas Robinson	51	51	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.41	4	-8	12	17.2	13.1	4.10	15.3	15.3	0.00
Jeremy Lin	51	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	3	-10	14.0	17.1	-3.11	15.3	15.2	0.11
Donatas Motiejunas	35	35	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.01	-12	8	-20	13.7	16.3	-2.60	14.3	15.8	-1.47
Chandler Parsons	83	86	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.48	0	-4	4	15.4	15.1	0.30	15.4	13.7	1.78
James Harden	76	78	-0.67	0.17	-0.84	-0.29	-13	9	-22	14.6	18.7	-4.09	15.4	14.9	0.48

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	49	49	0.63	-0.13	0.77	0.55	3	1	2	14.2	16.4	-2.17	15.7	15.0	0.61
Dirk Nowitzki	64	64	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.07	18	-14	32	15.7	14.4	1.36	15.2	15.6	-0.37
O.J. Mayo	67	65	0.50	-0.00	0.51	0.42	3	1	2	15.1	15.6	-0.47	14.3	17.9	-3.67
Vince Carter	58	56	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.46	0	4	-4	15.3	15.2	0.05	16.4	13.8	2.67
Shawn Marion	74	71	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	2	0	15.1	15.9	-0.81	14.4	18.5	-4.05
Brandan Wright	55	54	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.19	-4	8	-12	15.1	15.5	-0.35	15.4	15.4	0.01
Elton Brand	37	36	0.02	0.48	-0.46	-0.04	2	2	0	14.9	15.5	-0.58	15.4	15.4	0.04
Jae Crowder	25	26	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	9	-14	15.8	15.1	0.77	18.7	14.1	4.62
Darren Collison	46	44	-0.13	0.63	-0.77	-0.16	1	3	-2	16.4	14.2	2.17	15.0	15.7	-0.61

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.49,0.52,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.68,0.74,0.69,0.64,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.77,0.72,0.83,0.78,0.7,0.77,0.8,0.87,0.79,0.74,0.68,0.66,0.66,0.57,0.52,0.58,0.66,0.8,0.55,0.62,0.54,0.85,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 83, NYK 89	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.53,0.57,0.58,0.53,0.6,0.58,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.61,0.58,0.62,0.75,0.73,0.7,0.67,0.74,0.8,0.84,0.85,0.78,0.68,0.58,0.66,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.69,0.76,0.87,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.91,1	91.3%
MIL 88, CHI 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.43,0.51,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.58,0.65,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.73,0.67,0.79,0.77,0.85,0.86,0.73,0.77,0.68,0.74,0.81,0.67,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.59,0.67,0.61,0.64,0.85,0.9,1	90.6%
DAL 94, HOU 97	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.75,0.65,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.45,0.55,0.77,0.96,1	90.6%