NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Dallas Mavericks	94		Excitement	7.7 [257]		MVP	Shane Battier (HOU): +16.2%
Houston Rockets	97		Comeback	1.2 [653]		LVP	Dirk Nowitzki (DAL): -21.2%

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jason Terry	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.2,0.2,0.31,0.31,0.25,0.17,0.17,0.09	0.10	-0.01	-0.00	12	65%	0.17	1	-0.08	7	71%	-0.00
Shawn Marion	0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.00	0.00	12	67%	0.10	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Kidd	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.04	0.07	-0.02	0.01	10	70%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Drew Gooden	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.01	10	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Erick Dampier	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.08	0.00	-0.02	6	21%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Jose Juan Barea	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	6	29%	-0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Josh Howard	-0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16	-0.04	-0.12	-0.00	14	46%	-0.05	3	-0.11	7	86%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	-0.21	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.01,-0.15,-0.15,-0.23,-0.21	-0.08	-0.14	-0.00	12	39%	-0.14	3	-0.07	4	100%	0.04

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shane Battier	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	-0.01	0.16	-0.01	12	44%	0.18	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Carl Landry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.16,0.16,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.02	0.04	-0.00	13	56%	0.18	2	-0.12	1	100%	0.01
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.05	-0.00	8	75%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Luis Scola	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	0.00	11	55%	0.07	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Brooks	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.07	-0.01	26	55%	0.06	3	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Trevor Ariza	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.00	-0.02	10	42%	0.05	5	-0.13	6	50%	-0.02
David Andersen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.04	-0.00	8	25%	-0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.2	2.3	25.8	16.0	26.3	2.5	26.2	124.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

HOU +54.7%

DAL -14.6%

HOU +21.6%

DAL -9.9%

DAL -1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DAL	HOU	NBA	DAL	HOU	NBA
this game	14.0	16.5	15.3	98.9	103.2	106.0
season	15.2	15.0		107.2	106.0
opponent	15.1	15.5		106.1	104.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DAL	14.2	13.8	13.4	14.7	14.0
HOU	15.2	16.2	16.0	18.9	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Drew Gooden	48	46	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	0.02	-2	-1	-1	14.2	13.8	0.42	16.4	16.5	-0.11
Erick Dampier	34	35	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-2	1	13.6	14.2	-0.63	16.0	16.8	-0.79
Jose Juan Barea	39	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.05	-3	0	-3	14.8	13.4	1.40	17.1	16.0	1.10
Josh Howard	67	64	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.40	5	-8	13	13.8	14.5	-0.68	16.4	16.7	-0.34
Jason Terry	66	64	-0.32	-0.18	-0.15	-0.38	2	-5	7	13.6	15.0	-1.41	16.4	16.6	-0.14
Jason Kidd	85	84	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.40	-5	2	-7	14.0	14.4	-0.42	16.2	18.7	-2.50
Shawn Marion	77	77	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.38	-6	3	-9	14.3	12.9	1.33	16.5	16.4	0.14
Dirk Nowitzki	59	60	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.41	-5	2	-7	14.0	14.1	-0.10	16.9	15.7	1.15

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Shane Battier	73	72	0.81	-0.31	1.12	0.40	14	-11	25	17.0	14.7	2.26	14.6	12.3	2.27
Trevor Ariza	80	82	0.52	-0.02	0.54	0.37	5	-2	7	16.1	18.4	-2.22	14.1	13.5	0.65
Aaron Brooks	84	86	0.43	0.07	0.37	0.40	1	2	-1	16.3	17.5	-1.15	13.8	15.8	-1.94
Carl Landry	63	63	0.29	0.21	0.07	0.46	-6	9	-15	16.6	16.3	0.31	13.6	14.8	-1.24
Luis Scola	63	63	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.02	8	-5	13	15.5	18.4	-2.82	13.4	15.2	-1.85
Charles Hayes	31	32	0.21	0.29	-0.07	-0.05	9	-6	15	16.3	16.6	-0.31	14.8	13.6	1.24
Kyle Lowry	54	55	0.08	0.42	-0.35	0.40	-11	14	-25	16.8	16.1	0.68	13.7	14.4	-0.70
David Andersen	22	22	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	8	-13	18.4	15.9	2.53	15.1	13.7	1.45

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.57,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.6,0.56,0.6,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.75,0.65,0.79,0.83,0.88,0.86,0.77,0.85,0.82,0.79,0.83,0.79,0.81,0.84,0.62,0.71,0.63,0.59,0.71,0.67,0.45,0.55,0.77,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
UTA 89, NJN 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.63,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.46,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.64,0.67,0.71,0.8,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.84,0.88,0.81,0.85,0.86,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.75,0.89,0.77,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.62,0.72,0.78,0.91,1	93.2%
PHI 108, SAC 115	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.58,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.63,0.7,0.69,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.62,0.54,0.56,0.53,0.53,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.7,0.78,0.66,0.72,0.82,0.81,0.76,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.69,0.78,0.87,0.78,0.78,0.82,0.8,0.58,0.59,0.71,0.66,0.53,0.37,0.55,0.98,1	93.0%
CHI 87, ATL 97	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.56,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.62,0.62,0.56,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.51,0.61,0.54,0.61,0.61,0.64,0.63,0.71,0.69,0.72,0.81,0.71,0.74,0.75,0.76,0.77,0.81,0.75,0.74,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.61,0.53,0.46,0.77,0.98,1	92.4%