NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	113		Excitement	3.2 [1170]		MVP	DeJuan Blair (SAS): +15.3%
Dallas Mavericks	107		Comeback	1.0 [847]		LVP	O.J. Mayo (DAL): -8.6%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
DeJuan Blair	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.02	0.02	13	73%	0.15	1	0.00	4	50%	-0.02
Gary Neal	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.07	0.01	-0.03	13	64%	0.11	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Boris Diaw	0.05	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.01	-0.04	11	45%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Green	0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.06	0.00	0.03	9	61%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tiago Splitter	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	6	76%	0.08	3	-0.05	5	60%	-0.00
Matt Bonner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.02	3	33%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aron Baynes	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.00	16	59%	0.08	5	-0.08	7	71%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.02	8	50%	-0.01	1	0.00	4	100%	0.00
Nando De Colo	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.01	0.00	0.03	3	50%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.02	2	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.10	0.00	-0.03	5	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodrigue Beaubois	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.15	0.00	0.08	8	90%	0.08	2	-0.01	5	100%	0.01
Chris Kaman	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	67%	0.04	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.01	-0.03	14	48%	0.06	2	-0.04	3	100%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.10	0.00	0.09	12	65%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Bernard James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	3	50%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Elton Brand	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	10	40%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	0.03	3	50%	-0.02	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.00
Shawn Marion	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.02	5	20%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Darren Collison	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	0.02	-0.02	0.06	10	59%	-0.05	2	-0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jae Crowder	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.08	-0.00	-0.01	6	25%	-0.06	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
O.J. Mayo	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.03	-0.02	0.04	15	47%	-0.04	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.6	2.8	27.1	17.7	27.3	2.7	44.0	149.1
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +43.6%

DAL -0.0%

SAS +2.7%

SAS +2.4%

SAS +1.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DAL	NBA	SAS	DAL	NBA
this game	15.5	12.2	15.4	108.7	102.9	104.1
season	15.2	14.5		106.4	104.3
opponent	15.6	15.1		105.0	99.5

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	15.6	13.2	17.5	15.9	15.5
DAL	15.0	12.1	12.0	10.2	12.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kawhi Leonard	59	60	0.45	0.05	0.40	-0.17	21	-15	36	16.0	14.7	1.28	13.0	11.2	1.74
Danny Green	52	53	0.41	0.09	0.32	-0.03	15	-9	24	16.9	14.0	2.92	13.3	11.1	2.18
Tony Parker	63	63	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.06	15	-9	24	16.7	13.6	3.06	11.9	12.8	-0.87
Boris Diaw	62	60	0.31	0.19	0.12	-0.01	11	-5	16	16.8	13.5	3.25	12.5	11.8	0.75
DeJuan Blair	41	43	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.24	1	5	-4	14.2	16.3	-2.05	12.6	12.0	0.68
Gary Neal	65	64	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.43	-6	12	-18	14.7	16.7	-1.97	12.1	12.5	-0.44
Tiago Splitter	63	61	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	1	4	16.3	14.2	2.05	12.0	12.6	-0.68
Matt Bonner	40	43	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.36	-6	12	-18	13.5	16.7	-3.23	11.8	12.5	-0.67
Stephen Jackson	28	27	0.05	0.45	-0.39	0.08	-1	7	-8	15.0	15.6	-0.63	11.6	12.5	-0.91
Aron Baynes	4	3	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.23	-8	14	-22	5.0	15.9	-10.88	4.3	12.5	-8.13
Manu Ginobili	18	18	-0.01	0.51	-0.52	0.05	-2	8	-10	14.7	15.6	-0.96	11.8	12.3	-0.48
Nando De Colo	25	25	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.41	-15	21	-36	12.7	16.3	-3.66	11.4	12.5	-1.15

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jae Crowder	56	58	0.07	-0.57	0.64	-0.75	28	-34	62	10.7	14.0	-3.25	16.3	14.4	1.92
Mike James	22	24	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.34	13	-19	32	12.2	12.2	-0.06	18.0	14.7	3.30
Bernard James	23	23	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.32	10	-16	26	9.7	13.0	-3.31	15.5	15.4	0.08
Rodrigue Beaubois	37	36	-0.04	-0.46	0.41	-0.54	17	-23	40	10.4	13.2	-2.79	15.5	15.4	0.10
Vince Carter	51	52	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-4	2	11.5	12.9	-1.34	15.9	15.0	0.85
Chris Kaman	25	26	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.01	-6	0	-6	13.9	11.7	2.22	13.4	16.2	-2.77
Elton Brand	52	52	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.04	-8	2	-10	12.7	11.8	0.92	16.5	14.4	2.15
Dirk Nowitzki	72	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.39	-0.03	-14	8	-22	12.6	11.4	1.19	16.0	14.2	1.80
Shawn Marion	45	42	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	0.34	-28	22	-50	14.4	10.6	3.86	14.1	16.4	-2.25
Darren Collison	63	63	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	0.04	-18	12	-30	12.7	11.5	1.23	14.6	16.9	-2.30
O.J. Mayo	74	72	-0.57	0.07	-0.63	0.08	-22	16	-38	12.6	11.4	1.12	14.6	17.5	-2.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.47,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.39,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.35,0.34,0.29,0.25,0.33,0.33,0.3,0.3,0.31,0.36,0.3,0.27,0.22,0.21,0.14,0.05,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
IND 105, CHI 87	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.47,0.44,0.39,0.4,0.38,0.35,0.3,0.29,0.25,0.28,0.24,0.29,0.27,0.29,0.24,0.3,0.27,0.27,0.31,0.31,0.3,0.22,0.16,0.14,0.11,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	96.4%
SAS 115, ATL 101	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.55,0.5,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.39,0.31,0.29,0.32,0.32,0.34,0.31,0.34,0.31,0.33,0.37,0.3,0.25,0.24,0.21,0.25,0.18,0.14,0.12,0.07,0.05,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0	96.3%
LAC 111, ATL 91	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.45,0.43,0.41,0.37,0.33,0.33,0.32,0.34,0.34,0.31,0.36,0.31,0.35,0.3,0.21,0.24,0.31,0.33,0.27,0.22,0.13,0.09,0.08,0.09,0.1,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.02,0,0,0,0,0	96.2%