NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	92		Excitement	6.3 [526]		MVP	Aaron Brooks (SAC): +16.5%
Sacramento Kings	94		Comeback	1.9 [661]		LVP	Stephen Curry (GSW): -18.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Andrew Bogut	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09	0.07	0.04	0.02	7	71%	0.11	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Richard Jefferson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	3	62%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carl Landry	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	60%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Jarrett Jack	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	6	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Charles Jenkins	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Klay Thompson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,-0.02	0.06	-0.08	0.00	17	55%	0.00	1	-0.02	6	83%	0.06
Draymond Green	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Harrison Barnes	-0.04	0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	8	37%	-0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
David Lee	-0.04	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.03	-0.04	0.03	13	59%	0.04	3	-0.09	8	100%	0.04
Festus Ezeli	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.02	0.01	4	30%	-0.05	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Stephen Curry	-0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.17,-0.12,-0.12,-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	0.01	15	34%	-0.10	3	-0.09	5	80%	0.01

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Aaron Brooks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.18,0.16	0.16	0.04	0.12	-0.01	8	67%	0.20	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Jimmer Fredette	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	2	100%	0.09	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Marcus Thornton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.04	0.02	-0.01	15	50%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jason Thompson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.02	-0.01	2	75%	0.07	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
DeMarcus Cousins	0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.01	0.01	0.06	-0.04	0.00	16	62%	0.06	3	-0.05	5	60%	-0.01
Thomas Robinson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	-0.00	-0.00	3	67%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Isaiah Thomas	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	8	59%	0.04	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.01
Travis Outlaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.00	-0.02	4	25%	-0.02	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
James Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	0.04	8	32%	-0.09	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.04
Tyreke Evans	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.16	-0.01	-0.03	9	15%	-0.10	2	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.6	27.1	14.7	27.6	2.0	37.0	135.6
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC +51.0%

GSW -23.4%

SAC +9.0%

SAC +8.3%

SAC +5.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	SAC	NBA	GSW	SAC	NBA
this game	14.9	16.0	15.4	97.9	101.1	104.1
season	14.6	15.0		104.6	104.7
opponent	15.2	15.3		109.4	103.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.3	16.9	15.7	12.6	14.9
SAC	17.0	15.9	13.6	17.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Draymond Green	9	7	0.15	-0.65	0.81	0.07	3	-5	8	11.8	15.2	-3.40	17.1	15.9	1.28
Charles Jenkins	1	2	-0.05	-0.45	0.39	0.00	-2	0	-2	12.0	14.9	-2.88	10.5	16.1	-5.58
Festus Ezeli	31	30	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.09	0	-2	2	14.9	14.8	0.13	16.0	16.0	0.01
Richard Jefferson	26	23	-0.15	-0.35	0.19	-0.06	-3	1	-4	15.9	14.5	1.43	16.7	15.7	0.92
Jarrett Jack	34	32	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.10	-4	2	-6	15.9	14.2	1.66	16.5	15.7	0.88
Carl Landry	38	35	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.05	-8	6	-14	15.7	14.2	1.49	16.3	15.7	0.62
Harrison Barnes	60	61	-0.28	-0.22	-0.07	-0.34	2	-4	6	14.2	15.9	-1.66	15.7	16.5	-0.88
David Lee	80	81	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.42	2	-4	6	14.8	15.3	-0.51	16.1	14.9	1.19
Stephen Curry	76	77	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-2	2	14.8	14.9	-0.12	16.1	15.4	0.63
Andrew Bogut	38	40	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.48	2	-4	6	14.2	15.3	-1.08	15.3	16.5	-1.15
Klay Thompson	77	77	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.38	-2	0	-2	14.8	14.9	-0.04	15.7	17.3	-1.64

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tyreke Evans	58	59	0.56	-0.06	0.61	0.38	6	-4	10	14.9	17.7	-2.73	15.1	14.4	0.67
Charles Hayes	46	46	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.52	-2	4	-6	16.9	15.0	1.93	13.8	15.8	-2.01
DeMarcus Cousins	67	68	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.39	1	1	0	15.2	17.9	-2.68	14.9	14.7	0.22
Isaiah Thomas	43	44	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.44	-2	4	-6	14.8	16.9	-2.13	14.7	14.9	-0.19
James Johnson	56	57	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.16	6	-4	10	15.7	16.3	-0.61	15.8	13.4	2.47
Jason Thompson	52	53	0.17	0.33	-0.17	0.11	2	0	2	15.3	16.8	-1.47	15.3	14.3	0.99
Thomas Robinson	21	20	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.01	3	-1	4	17.8	15.4	2.39	16.1	14.5	1.65
Marcus Thornton	56	57	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.04	1	1	0	17.0	14.4	2.53	14.2	15.8	-1.54
Travis Outlaw	24	24	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.10	-2	4	-6	16.7	15.7	1.07	13.8	15.2	-1.42
Aaron Brooks	37	38	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.00	1	1	0	17.0	15.2	1.78	15.1	14.7	0.43
Jimmer Fredette	5	4	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.06	-4	6	-10	17.4	15.9	1.52	9.5	15.1	-5.59

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.39,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.58,0.57,0.56,0.61,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.77,0.64,0.73,0.65,0.72,0.61,0.55,0.64,0.71,0.8,0.86,0.93,0.94,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.86,0.88,0.79,0.89,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.85,0.95,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 95, MIA 104	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.83,0.76,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.99,1,1	93.8%
CLE 107, VAN 119	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.47,0.45,0.42,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.63,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.79,0.75,0.75,0.75,0.71,0.66,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.79,0.78,0.88,0.93,0.92,0.92,0.85,0.87,0.92,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.96,0.99,1,1	93.6%
MEM 80, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,1	93.6%