NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Jersey Nets	95		Excitement	5.2 [754]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +23.4%
Miami Heat	104		Comeback	1.4 [956]		LVP	Jason Kidd (NJN): -16.1%

New Jersey Nets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Rogers	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.04	-0.01	-0.02	9	70%	0.09	2	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Kerry Kittles	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.01	0.03	-0.01	8	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Lucious Harris	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	1	150%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Aaron Williams	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.03	-0.00	0.01	3	75%	0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Richard Jefferson	-0.01	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.15,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.05	16	68%	0.10	4	-0.11	5	80%	-0.02
Brandon Armstrong	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.02	0.00	4	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brian Scalabrine	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.05	0.00	8	62%	0.04	2	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Jason Collins	-0.06	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	-0.00	7	65%	0.03	4	-0.09	6	83%	0.01
Jason Kidd	-0.16	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.08	-0.08	0.00	12	48%	-0.01	4	-0.15	3	100%	0.02

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.15,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.24,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.13	0.09	-0.01	15	74%	0.26	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Rasual Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	2	125%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.01	-0.01	10	65%	0.13	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.00	-0.01	5	58%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	9	73%	0.09	4	-0.10	4	100%	0.02
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.05	-0.01	0.05	13	58%	-0.01	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.02
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	8	39%	-0.03	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.10	0.02	-0.00	9	50%	-0.02	3	-0.06	12	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.2	2.5	26.6	15.8	28.9	1.8	30.0	129.9
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIA +27.4%

NJN -2.6%

MIA +17.1%

MIA +9.8%

NJN -1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NJN	MIA	NBA	NJN	MIA	NBA
this game	15.6	16.0	15.7	104.4	114.3	100.5
season	15.3	16.2		98.1	99.3
opponent	15.9	16.2		98.8	95.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NJN	15.5	18.5	14.0	15.0	15.6
MIA	15.8	17.5	13.1	18.4	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Jersey Nets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Aaron Williams	23	22	-0.02	-0.48	0.45	-0.08	2	-11	13	13.9	16.2	-2.26	18.4	15.3	3.12
Lucious Harris	31	29	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	-0.06	-1	-8	7	14.9	16.0	-1.11	17.1	15.5	1.56
Brandon Armstrong	17	17	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	-0.07	-1	-8	7	17.4	15.2	2.22	20.4	15.0	5.37
Rodney Rogers	45	48	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.13	-2	-7	5	15.9	15.3	0.61	15.5	16.6	-1.06
Brian Scalabrine	48	46	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	-3	-3	14.7	16.6	-1.94	16.3	15.8	0.44
Richard Jefferson	78	77	-0.39	-0.11	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-1	-7	15.8	14.2	1.60	16.1	15.6	0.56
Kerry Kittles	74	74	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.16	-8	-1	-7	15.2	17.4	-2.22	15.0	20.4	-5.37
Jason Collins	64	64	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.09	-12	3	-15	16.7	13.1	3.60	15.3	17.7	-2.41
Jason Kidd	75	78	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.25	-9	0	-9	15.7	15.2	0.43	15.7	18.3	-2.64

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eddie Jones	70	70	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.22	9	0	9	15.3	18.5	-3.16	15.2	16.9	-1.69
Rafer Alston	59	58	0.47	0.03	0.44	0.18	10	-1	11	16.7	14.8	1.85	15.0	16.7	-1.76
Lamar Odom	73	71	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.18	9	0	9	15.2	19.3	-4.03	15.6	15.4	0.20
Brian Grant	64	64	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.20	4	5	-1	16.3	15.3	1.01	15.6	15.6	0.07
Caron Butler	78	77	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.27	1	8	-7	16.0	16.2	-0.22	15.1	18.6	-3.59
Udonis Haslem	45	47	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	4	1	16.9	15.2	1.72	15.5	15.7	-0.19
Rasual Butler	13	14	0.20	0.30	-0.09	-0.03	8	1	7	16.2	16.0	0.22	18.6	15.1	3.59
Dwyane Wade	53	54	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.07	-1	10	-11	16.3	15.7	0.57	16.8	13.9	2.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.46,0.5,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.5,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.58,0.66,0.72,0.74,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.64,0.67,0.67,0.79,0.83,0.76,0.91,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.86,0.85,0.86,0.85,0.78,0.9,0.85,0.99,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 80, HOU 88	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.49,0.45,0.51,0.58,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.76,0.67,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.74,0.66,0.68,0.7,0.73,0.77,0.81,0.78,0.85,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.92,0.93,0.97,0.93,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.99,1	94.6%
DET 95, GSW 103	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.48,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.37,0.44,0.47,0.56,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.7,0.67,0.69,0.77,0.7,0.78,0.74,0.79,0.67,0.7,0.7,0.74,0.78,0.78,0.9,0.89,0.93,0.94,0.91,0.82,0.76,0.73,0.84,0.94,0.87,0.9,0.85,0.91,0.96,1	94.6%
PHI 107, NJN 112	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.54,0.48,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.54,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.54,0.64,0.67,0.72,0.64,0.7,0.66,0.69,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.8,0.85,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.9,0.9,0.92,0.86,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.96,0.86,0.89,0.97,1,1	94.2%