NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	95		Excitement	4.5 [725]		MVP	Ty Lawson (DEN): +14.4%
Denver Nuggets	104		Comeback	1.0 [767]		LVP	Gerald Wallace (POR): -7.3%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jamal Crawford	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0.03,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.13	-0.02	0.01	15	70%	0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Camby	0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.08	0.00	0.02	5	100%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Wesley Matthews	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04	-0.03	0.03	-0.04	11	44%	0.09	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Elliot Williams	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	10	50%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.01	0,0,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	-0.01	16	53%	0.02	3	-0.03	6	100%	0.02
Craig Smith	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Chris Johnson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.02	2	67%	0.01	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Raymond Felton	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.00	-0.01	13	35%	-0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	0.00	-0.01	7	29%	-0.04	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ty Lawson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.05	0.04	-0.06	15	60%	0.16	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.10	0.00	0.03	6	93%	0.09	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Jordan Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	10	55%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Timofey Mozgov	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.00	-0.02	10	61%	0.08	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.00
Al Harrington	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.05	-0.00	-0.00	11	54%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	8	50%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	13	37%	-0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.06	0.00	-0.05	14	38%	0.01	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.09	0.01	-0.05	4	40%	0.01	4	-0.05	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	1.7	28.4	15.4	24.5	2.7	27.5	125.6
league avg	25.5	2.3	29.8	14.2	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +23.8%

POR -1.1%

DEN +14.8%

DEN +8.9%

DEN +3.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	16.3	15.7	15.6	106.7	114.3	102.8
season	15.7	14.5		104.1	107.5
opponent	15.8	15.4		104.5	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.0	15.8	17.7	17.1	16.3
DEN	15.6	13.5	15.8	18.0	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kurt Thomas	1	2	0.01	-0.51	0.51	-0.05	2	-11	13	14.0	16.4	-2.35	23.0	15.5	7.48
Chris Johnson	15	18	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.19	6	-15	21	17.5	16.1	1.45	15.8	15.7	0.12
Elliot Williams	21	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.03	-2	-7	5	17.7	15.9	1.75	15.1	15.9	-0.76
Marcus Camby	34	31	-0.10	-0.40	0.29	0.07	-6	-3	-3	15.8	16.7	-0.86	15.5	15.8	-0.35
Craig Smith	9	8	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	0.11	-9	0	-9	15.6	16.4	-0.86	12.0	16.0	-4.04
Raymond Felton	43	45	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.16	0	-9	9	16.8	15.9	0.85	15.8	15.5	0.28
Wesley Matthews	51	52	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.30	3	-12	15	16.4	16.2	0.16	16.6	14.5	2.09
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.24	-4	-5	1	16.1	17.6	-1.45	16.3	11.6	4.72
Jamal Crawford	66	68	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.19	-9	0	-9	16.5	15.9	0.62	15.0	17.6	-2.58
Nicolas Batum	61	63	-0.46	-0.04	-0.41	-0.10	-12	3	-15	15.9	17.3	-1.45	15.4	16.2	-0.77
Gerald Wallace	67	68	-0.50	0.00	-0.51	-0.09	-14	5	-19	16.2	16.7	-0.53	15.5	16.1	-0.60

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ty Lawson	72	72	0.55	-0.05	0.60	0.11	15	-6	21	15.1	17.8	-2.66	16.1	17.2	-1.12
Al Harrington	60	57	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.24	6	3	3	15.7	15.7	-0.04	16.4	16.3	0.07
Arron Afflalo	70	69	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.14	7	2	5	15.3	16.9	-1.53	16.4	16.1	0.23
Andre Miller	55	52	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.28	-1	10	-11	16.3	14.7	1.68	16.7	15.8	0.88
Kosta Koufos	46	45	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.19	1	8	-7	15.4	16.0	-0.63	16.8	15.8	1.00
Corey Brewer	51	49	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	5	-1	15.8	15.5	0.28	15.9	16.8	-0.86
Kenneth Faried	33	34	0.19	0.31	-0.12	-0.04	8	1	7	15.2	16.0	-0.83	16.0	16.5	-0.53
Timofey Mozgov	43	42	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.08	3	6	-3	16.4	15.0	1.44	16.0	16.6	-0.57
Jordan Hamilton	25	25	0.16	0.34	-0.18	0.10	2	7	-5	16.6	15.3	1.21	16.8	16.1	0.66

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.76,0.78,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
SAC 89, POR 102	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.63,0.65,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.74,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.87,0.82,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.91,0.92,0.85,0.9,0.83,0.93,0.92,0.95,0.93,0.99,1,1,1,1	95.6%
DEN 106, ATL 117	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.91,1,1	95.6%
MIL 87, ORL 97	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.98,1,1,1	95.5%