NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	87		Excitement	4.4 [972]		MVP	Dwight Howard (ORL): +12.7%
Orlando Magic	97		Comeback	1.1 [1281]		LVP	Keyon Dooling (MIL): -7.5%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Corey Maggette	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	9	81%	0.13	3	-0.05	8	75%	0.02
Luc Mbah a Moute	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	5	43%	0.01	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.01
Larry Sanders	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.04	10	62%	0.00	1	-0.02	4	25%	-0.03
Chris Douglas-Roberts	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	8	44%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jon Brockman	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.01	-0.02	-0.00	2	33%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
John Salmons	-0.05	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.07	-0.01	-0.03	17	36%	-0.05	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Ersan Ilyasova	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	10	25%	-0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andrew Bogut	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	5	30%	-0.05	1	-0.02	10	20%	-0.08
Earl Boykins	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.03	-0.01	14	40%	-0.06	2	-0.01	2	100%	0.00
Keyon Dooling	-0.07	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	-0.02	4	0%	-0.06	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.15,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.07	0.03	-0.03	16	60%	0.17	3	-0.04	15	67%	-0.04
Hedo Turkoglu	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.01	-0.02	8	62%	0.09	2	-0.03	5	40%	-0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	-0.03	9	50%	0.04	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	0.01	8	56%	0.02	1	-0.01	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.04	0.00	0.03	5	54%	0.00	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Jason Richardson	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	0.01	13	46%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.00	-0.01	9	33%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Jameer Nelson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.00	9	45%	0.00	3	-0.06	4	75%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.1	2.4	26.9	16.0	33.1	3.5	34.6	141.5
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +32.3%

ORL +16.6%

MIL -1.3%

ORL +0.8%

ORL +1.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	ORL	NBA	MIL	ORL	NBA
this game	15.8	14.2	15.5	90.6	101.0	105.7
season	16.2	15.2		100.1	106.3
opponent	16.2	15.4		101.1	100.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	17.9	14.6	15.1	15.6	15.8
ORL	12.8	16.0	14.2	13.8	14.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jon Brockman	24	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.04	-2	-8	6	15.5	15.9	-0.32	13.2	14.6	-1.35
Larry Sanders	63	62	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.36	8	-18	26	14.9	17.5	-2.64	14.6	13.5	1.11
Corey Maggette	53	53	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	-0.18	0	-10	10	14.6	17.2	-2.59	14.0	14.5	-0.49
Luc Mbah a Moute	37	37	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.00	-7	-3	-4	17.6	14.6	3.04	14.1	14.3	-0.18
Earl Boykins	53	53	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.22	0	-10	10	14.6	17.3	-2.67	13.4	15.2	-1.79
Chris Douglas-Roberts	56	55	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.22	-1	-9	8	14.9	17.0	-2.05	14.8	13.5	1.28
Keyon Dooling	43	43	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.01	-10	0	-10	17.3	14.6	2.67	15.2	13.4	1.79
Andrew Bogut	60	61	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.08	-7	-3	-4	15.7	15.9	-0.26	14.3	14.0	0.34
Ersan Ilyasova	32	32	-0.33	-0.17	-0.16	0.08	-14	4	-18	17.4	15.0	2.39	14.5	14.1	0.37
John Salmons	59	60	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.02	-17	7	-24	16.8	14.2	2.55	13.7	15.1	-1.34

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Richardson	68	68	0.51	-0.01	0.51	0.12	13	-3	16	13.7	15.4	-1.61	16.6	13.7	2.97
Jameer Nelson	66	67	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.08	14	-4	18	14.3	14.1	0.22	17.1	12.8	4.23
Dwight Howard	85	84	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.19	9	1	8	14.1	15.3	-1.19	16.3	12.0	4.32
JJ Redick	69	69	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.22	4	6	-2	14.1	14.6	-0.57	15.0	17.7	-2.73
Hedo Turkoglu	69	68	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.11	7	3	4	14.5	13.4	1.08	15.9	15.4	0.50
Ryan Anderson	47	48	0.24	0.26	-0.02	0.09	5	5	0	14.1	14.3	-0.22	14.8	16.8	-2.02
Brandon Bass	46	47	0.15	0.35	-0.20	0.09	2	8	-6	15.1	13.4	1.63	15.5	16.0	-0.53
Gilbert Arenas	30	29	0.01	0.49	-0.48	0.13	-4	14	-18	14.1	14.3	-0.22	12.8	17.1	-4.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.5,0.58,0.62,0.63,0.61,0.69,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.68,0.64,0.71,0.75,0.72,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.79,0.83,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.93,0.95,0.94,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.91,0.96,0.92,0.9,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.86,0.98,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
HOU 101, DET 114	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.63,0.62,0.66,0.77,0.75,0.73,0.72,0.71,0.75,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.92,0.91,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.94,0.95,0.96,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.93,0.91,0.86,0.91,0.83,0.8,0.9,0.9,0.96,0.97,1,1	96.1%
DAL 104, PHX 117	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.72,0.72,0.74,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.82,0.88,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.91,0.84,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.94,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.91,0.9,0.89,0.99,1,1,1	95.8%
ATL 84, NJN 90	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.52,0.58,0.61,0.53,0.59,0.57,0.61,0.57,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.69,0.71,0.75,0.8,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.85,0.83,0.84,0.8,0.84,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.95,0.93,0.91,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.88,0.87,0.95,0.97,0.99,1,1	95.7%