NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	106		Excitement	5.6 [704]		MVP	Paul Millsap (ATL): +16.6%
Atlanta Hawks	117		Comeback	1.0 [995]		LVP	Will Barton (DEN): -15.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wilson Chandler	0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06	0.07	0.00	0.01	17	62%	0.12	3	-0.05	5	40%	-0.03
Nikola Jokic	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.06	-0.02	0.02	17	53%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Beasley	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johnny O'Bryant III	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Juan Hernangomez	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	-0.00	4	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.02
Darrell Arthur	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.00	10	50%	0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jamal Murray	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.03	-0.04	0.01	9	55%	-0.02	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	8	37%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Gary Harris	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	14	42%	-0.03	2	-0.03	3	67%	-0.01
Will Barton	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.08	-0.07	0.01	19	38%	-0.12	1	-0.03	7	71%	0.00

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Millsap	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.16	0.03	0.02	15	70%	0.17	0	0.00	3	100%	0.00
DeAndre' Bembry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.07	0.01	-0.00	7	71%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kris Humphries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.00	4	87%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dennis Schroder	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	19	57%	0.09	3	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Tim Hardaway Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	-0.00	0.00	15	47%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Muscala	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	7	53%	0.03	1	-0.02	5	80%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.01	9	55%	0.01	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Kent Bazemore	0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.03	-0.00	8	70%	0.10	4	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Malcolm Delaney	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.08	-0.00	-0.02	8	25%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	1.7	30.2	15.4	21.3	2.5	29.5	126.3
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +55.4%

ATL +2.3%

DEN -2.8%

DEN -4.3%

DEN -0.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	ATL	NBA	DEN	ATL	NBA
this game	15.1	14.8	14.8	110.4	120.6	107.7
season	14.4	14.4		111.6	104.2
opponent	14.9	14.5		104.6	111.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DEN	14.5	17.1	14.1	14.5	15.1
ATL	14.8	12.4	14.7	17.6	14.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Malik Beasley	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-11	11	0.0	15.1	-15.05	2.0	14.9	-12.93
Johnny O'Bryant III	0	1	0.00	-0.50	0.51	0.00	0	-11	11	0.0	15.1	-15.05	2.0	14.9	-12.93
Darrell Arthur	42	39	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.12	3	-14	17	14.8	15.2	-0.43	15.4	14.4	1.03
Kenneth Faried	19	21	-0.09	-0.41	0.33	0.00	-3	-8	5	14.7	15.1	-0.46	16.3	14.4	1.96
Jamal Murray	41	42	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.25	3	-14	17	15.1	15.0	0.04	16.3	13.7	2.59
Juan Hernangomez	29	29	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.15	-2	-9	7	14.0	15.5	-1.51	14.9	14.7	0.15
Jameer Nelson	63	63	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	0.02	-12	1	-13	15.0	15.1	-0.11	13.9	16.5	-2.58
Will Barton	77	76	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.16	-7	-4	-3	15.2	14.5	0.66	14.4	16.4	-2.03
Gary Harris	70	71	-0.41	-0.09	-0.33	-0.00	-14	3	-17	15.5	13.9	1.55	14.4	15.9	-1.54
Wilson Chandler	71	72	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.13	-11	0	-11	15.5	13.8	1.64	14.6	15.2	-0.60
Nikola Jokic	68	70	-0.46	-0.04	-0.42	-0.11	-12	1	-13	14.7	15.8	-1.04	15.3	13.5	1.82

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Millsap	75	75	0.39	0.11	0.27	0.09	10	1	9	14.6	15.4	-0.80	15.5	13.5	2.02
Tim Hardaway Jr.	75	75	0.37	0.13	0.24	0.08	10	1	9	14.4	16.0	-1.56	15.3	14.0	1.35
Dennis Schroder	71	70	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.08	9	2	7	14.5	15.5	-1.02	15.2	14.7	0.44
Mike Muscala	44	44	0.34	0.16	0.19	0.11	8	3	5	13.7	15.7	-1.91	13.5	16.4	-2.87
Dwight Howard	50	48	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.06	8	3	5	15.5	14.1	1.37	16.6	13.5	3.06
Kent Bazemore	42	41	0.27	0.23	0.04	0.01	9	2	7	15.9	13.9	1.96	15.6	14.7	0.89
DeAndre' Bembry	36	35	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.08	6	5	1	14.8	14.8	0.06	14.3	15.5	-1.21
Malcolm Delaney	50	50	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.20	2	9	-7	14.3	15.3	-0.98	15.3	14.8	0.43
Mike Dunleavy	17	17	-0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.09	-3	14	-17	16.1	14.5	1.53	13.0	15.5	-2.49
Kris Humphries	25	25	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	15	-19	15.8	14.4	1.41	13.5	15.6	-2.07

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.6,0.59,0.62,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.68,0.7,0.71,0.7,0.79,0.8,0.82,0.75,0.8,0.8,0.79,0.87,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.89,0.92,0.9,0.82,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.89,0.94,0.95,0.93,0.87,0.8,0.87,0.93,0.91,0.91,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 105, OKC 122	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.64,0.63,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.73,0.68,0.68,0.73,0.75,0.77,0.82,0.78,0.71,0.78,0.77,0.79,0.78,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.84,0.87,0.8,0.81,0.8,0.88,0.87,0.81,0.92,0.94,0.86,0.93,0.9,0.81,0.83,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	96.1%
POR 95, DEN 104	0.5,0.51,0.5,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.58,0.61,0.66,0.69,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.65,0.64,0.64,0.68,0.71,0.78,0.84,0.83,0.83,0.82,0.76,0.78,0.91,0.91,0.93,0.93,0.92,0.9,0.91,0.9,0.87,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.95,0.91,0.88,0.91,0.92,0.82,0.85,0.91,0.97,0.99,0.98,1,1	95.6%
MIA 76, BOS 88	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.62,0.61,0.65,0.69,0.72,0.78,0.74,0.8,0.79,0.79,0.74,0.84,0.84,0.8,0.82,0.87,0.84,0.91,0.88,0.94,0.92,0.83,0.88,0.84,0.8,0.72,0.85,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.93,0.94,0.94,0.85,0.79,0.76,0.73,0.89,0.89,0.98,1,1	94.9%