NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	111		Excitement	7.1 [404]		MVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): +20.9%
New York Knicks	99		Comeback	2.7 [481]		LVP	Amar'e Stoudemire (NYK): -17.6%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jameer Nelson	0.21	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.14	0.10	0.03	10	79%	0.23	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0.14	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.14	0.15	0.04	0.05	15	77%	0.28	5	-0.14	13	85%	-0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.11	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.04	-0.01	14	57%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Jason Richardson	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1	-0.01	0.10	-0.01	13	46%	0.14	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Bass	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.01	9	56%	0.06	1	-0.03	9	100%	0.04
Gilbert Arenas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.02,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.01	0.02	0.00	5	75%	0.14	3	-0.12	2	100%	0.02
Quentin Richardson	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Duhon	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Anderson	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.01	-0.03	0.00	3	50%	-0.00	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Earl Clark	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.02	-0.04	0.00	2	50%	-0.00	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00

New York Knicks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.16,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.09	0.06	-0.00	12	69%	0.22	3	-0.07	11	91%	0.05
Toney Douglas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.04,0,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	14	61%	0.10	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	0.00	5	67%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.05	-0.02	-0.01	12	61%	0.10	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.03
Ronny Turiaf	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.01	0.00	5	75%	0.07	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.02
Shawne Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.04	-0.00	-0.03	7	37%	-0.00	1	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Jared Jeffries	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.02	-0.00	2	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Landry Fields	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.04	-0.04	0.02	7	36%	-0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Amar'e Stoudemire	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.25,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.12	-0.07	-0.01	20	30%	-0.12	1	-0.06	3	33%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.7	2.7	28.7	17.8	28.4	2.0	37.2	143.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.4	27.2	2.4	33.9	140.0

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +56.6%

ORL +6.2%

ORL +7.0%

NYK -21.5%

ORL +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	NYK	NBA	ORL	NYK	NBA
this game	14.9	15.9	15.5	116.8	107.6	105.7
season	15.2	14.3		106.3	108.6
opponent	15.5	16.2		108.4	101.1

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ORL	16.0	17.4	12.5	14.1	14.9
NYK	16.0	14.7	17.5	15.4	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Dwight Howard	85	81	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.16	12	0	12	14.3	20.5	-6.24	15.7	17.2	-1.45
Jason Richardson	71	68	0.48	0.02	0.47	0.10	13	-1	14	14.7	15.5	-0.84	15.8	16.1	-0.25
Hedo Turkoglu	71	68	0.44	0.06	0.39	-0.08	18	-6	24	15.0	14.7	0.33	15.5	17.0	-1.49
Brandon Bass	58	59	0.42	0.08	0.35	-0.16	20	-8	28	16.2	12.9	3.32	15.9	15.9	-0.06
Jameer Nelson	68	66	0.37	0.13	0.23	-0.04	14	-2	16	14.7	15.5	-0.84	15.4	17.3	-1.91
Gilbert Arenas	38	36	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.19	2	10	-8	14.3	15.4	-1.09	16.7	15.4	1.39
Ryan Anderson	26	25	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.13	-1	13	-14	15.2	14.8	0.43	17.0	15.5	1.51
Quentin Richardson	27	25	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.26	-6	18	-24	13.9	15.3	-1.49	16.6	15.7	0.90
Earl Clark	18	18	-0.05	0.55	-0.61	0.15	-7	19	-26	14.7	15.0	-0.31	15.8	15.9	-0.15
Chris Duhon	13	14	-0.10	0.60	-0.69	0.05	-5	17	-22	19.2	14.2	5.00	16.6	15.8	0.79

New York Knicks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ronny Turiaf	38	39	0.04	-0.54	0.59	0.04	0	-12	12	14.7	16.7	-1.99	14.7	15.1	-0.34
Jared Jeffries	24	25	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.13	-2	-10	8	17.7	15.3	2.44	13.6	15.4	-1.84
Carmelo Anthony	72	76	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.05	-5	-7	2	15.5	17.3	-1.79	14.5	16.6	-2.14
Chauncey Billups	66	68	-0.23	-0.27	0.03	0.03	-9	-3	-6	15.7	16.3	-0.57	14.8	15.1	-0.32
Landry Fields	58	57	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	0.03	-11	-1	-10	15.5	16.6	-1.13	15.5	14.1	1.44
Roger Mason Jr.	28	28	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.19	-4	-8	4	17.0	15.4	1.58	15.1	14.9	0.22
Shawne Williams	44	47	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.15	-7	-5	-2	16.8	15.1	1.67	15.1	14.7	0.42
Toney Douglas	52	56	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.26	-7	-5	-2	16.5	15.1	1.42	14.9	14.9	0.07
Amar'e Stoudemire	78	79	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.06	-15	3	-18	15.4	18.6	-3.15	15.3	12.9	2.38

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.45,0.43,0.39,0.37,0.37,0.34,0.39,0.35,0.33,0.38,0.43,0.42,0.44,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.59,0.58,0.66,0.57,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.62,0.55,0.48,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.46,0.38,0.57,0.29,0.19,0.14,0.24,0.17,0.05,0.07,0.07,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 100, TOR 93	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.46,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.37,0.35,0.35,0.34,0.34,0.34,0.32,0.36,0.44,0.42,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.63,0.69,0.64,0.58,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.41,0.44,0.48,0.46,0.34,0.33,0.28,0.19,0.1,0.24,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.01,0	93.9%
ORL 103, UTA 94	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.4,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.35,0.37,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.47,0.47,0.53,0.45,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.51,0.46,0.54,0.54,0.6,0.69,0.67,0.61,0.61,0.62,0.65,0.59,0.52,0.47,0.6,0.54,0.48,0.53,0.43,0.42,0.31,0.29,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.04,0.01,0	92.8%
OKC 111, SAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.11,0.09,0,0	92.7%