NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	111		Excitement	6.8 [473]		MVP	Reggie Jackson (OKC): +36.2%
San Antonio Spurs	105		Comeback	2.0 [305]		LVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): -18.0%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Reggie Jackson	0.36	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.25,0.3,0.41,0.38,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.22	0.17	0.03	17	79%	0.36	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.08	0.06	-0.00	4	112%	0.17	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jeremy Lamb	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	-0.01	0.12	-0.01	11	41%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Collison	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.06	0.03	0.00	3	100%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Perry Jones	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.04	0.03	0.00	3	83%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Serge Ibaka	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	0.01	0.02	14	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Kendrick Perkins	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Durant	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	0.00	22	65%	0.20	11	-0.23	11	91%	0.05
Thabo Sefolosha	-0.07	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	4	18%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	0%	-0.08
Steven Adams	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	2	17%	-0.03	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Parker	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.14,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.19	0.09	0.06	22	71%	0.32	3	-0.09	8	100%	0.05
Boris Diaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.09	0.06	-0.01	8	78%	0.18	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Patty Mills	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.05	0.07	-0.02	6	75%	0.15	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Ayres	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.01	-0.03	0.03	-0.02	3	37%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	50%	-0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0	0.00	-0.00	0.01	0.00	10	54%	0.04	2	-0.04	6	33%	-0.05
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.01	0.00	3	33%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kawhi Leonard	0,0,0,-0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	2	75%	0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marco Belinelli	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.04	0.02	10	65%	0.03	4	-0.11	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.06	-0.09	0.04	9	45%	-0.05	3	-0.13	4	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.1	3.4	35.4	18.5	26.5	3.6	43.2	154.8
league avg	24.7	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.4	136.7

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

OKC +32.7%

SAS -7.3%

OKC +8.0%

OKC +11.1%

OKC +5.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAS	NBA	OKC	SAS	NBA
this game	16.0	15.0	15.1	119.4	112.9	105.2
season	14.4	15.0		107.8	109.8
opponent	15.0	15.4		101.1	102.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	14.3	15.4	17.9	16.7	16.0
SAS	15.1	13.4	17.2	14.7	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Reggie Jackson	75	73	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.30	6	0	6	16.0	15.9	0.10	15.2	14.1	1.15
Kevin Durant	77	77	0.46	0.04	0.42	0.25	7	-1	8	15.8	16.9	-1.17	14.6	17.1	-2.57
Jeremy Lamb	44	46	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	5	-4	16.4	15.6	0.84	14.5	15.5	-0.95
Serge Ibaka	74	74	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.13	7	-1	8	15.8	16.6	-0.77	14.7	16.3	-1.65
Derek Fisher	35	37	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.23	3	3	0	15.3	16.3	-1.00	13.8	15.8	-1.93
Nick Collison	29	28	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.26	-2	8	-10	17.1	15.5	1.65	16.7	14.2	2.50
Thabo Sefolosha	47	46	0.15	0.35	-0.20	-0.05	7	-1	8	15.2	16.7	-1.48	15.7	14.4	1.29
Steven Adams	26	26	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.09	0	6	-6	17.0	15.6	1.38	14.7	15.1	-0.48
Kendrick Perkins	42	42	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.02	2	4	-2	15.7	16.2	-0.51	15.0	15.0	0.09
Perry Jones	16	16	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.07	-1	7	-8	16.9	15.8	1.17	17.1	14.6	2.57

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Boris Diaw	60	62	0.08	-0.58	0.66	-0.30	13	-19	32	14.8	15.3	-0.52	16.6	14.7	1.84
Kawhi Leonard	30	32	-0.08	-0.42	0.35	-0.02	-2	-4	2	14.8	15.1	-0.34	13.9	17.0	-3.10
Jeff Ayres	41	43	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.03	-6	0	-6	15.8	14.4	1.40	15.8	16.1	-0.29
Manu Ginobili	54	54	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.23	0	-6	6	13.2	17.5	-4.28	16.7	15.0	1.67
Patty Mills	30	27	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.22	-2	-4	2	15.3	14.9	0.39	17.8	15.2	2.60
Matt Bonner	11	10	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.12	-6	0	-6	20.2	14.3	5.88	17.5	15.8	1.72
Cory Joseph	22	22	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	-0.05	-9	3	-12	18.0	14.1	3.93	16.6	15.8	0.88
Tony Parker	75	77	-0.32	-0.18	-0.13	-0.26	-2	-4	2	14.6	16.8	-2.27	15.6	17.5	-1.85
Marco Belinelli	75	72	-0.38	-0.12	-0.27	-0.21	-6	0	-6	15.0	14.9	0.14	15.5	17.6	-2.13
Tim Duncan	67	66	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.19	-10	4	-14	14.7	15.7	-0.91	15.6	16.9	-1.30

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.11,0.09,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
SAS 87, LAL 82	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.07,0.03,0.04,0,0	93.8%
WAS 97, DAL 95	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.34,0.32,0.3,0.22,0.3,0.35,0.32,0.35,0.32,0.32,0.38,0.38,0.42,0.35,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.41,0.5,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.48,0.48,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.29,0.43,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.17,0.1,0.09,0.04,0.08,0	93.5%
SAS 97, SAC 91	0.5,0.49,0.47,0.48,0.48,0.42,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.44,0.51,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.39,0.44,0.44,0.5,0.54,0.58,0.55,0.58,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.41,0.56,0.48,0.56,0.38,0.43,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.26,0.24,0.13,0.15,0.04,0.06,0.17,0	93.1%