NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	87		Excitement	7.0 [399]		MVP	Danny Ferry (SAS): +7.3%
Los Angeles Lakers	82		Comeback	2.0 [600]		LVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): -31.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danny Ferry	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.02	0.05	-0.00	3	62%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Steven Smith	0.07	0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.08	0.01	0.01	7	75%	0.07	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Malik Rose	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	7	67%	0.10	3	-0.08	10	80%	-0.01
Manu Ginobili	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0	-0.06	0.01	-0.05	9	39%	0.06	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Steve Kerr	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Willis	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	3	81%	0.04	2	-0.06	10	70%	-0.02
Speedy Claxton	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	10	50%	0.00	3	-0.06	6	50%	-0.02
Stephen Jackson	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.00	5	45%	0.00	4	-0.10	1	100%	0.01
Tony Parker	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2	-0.21	-0.04	-0.04	10	9%	-0.14	3	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.24	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.15,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.23,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24	-0.19	-0.09	-0.04	14	34%	-0.18	2	-0.06	13	62%	-0.03

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kareem Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.00	2	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	10	35%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tracy Murray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	0.01	9	50%	-0.00	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Soumaila Samake	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Brian Shaw	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	6	33%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Samaki Walker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.06	-0.05	0.01	4	58%	-0.01	3	-0.11	4	75%	0.01
Devean George	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	-0.00	8	45%	-0.05	3	-0.08	6	100%	0.02
Derek Fisher	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	9	32%	-0.12	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Kobe Bryant	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.12,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.23,-0.28,-0.29,-0.29,-0.32,-0.32	-0.32	-0.26	-0.11	-0.06	29	39%	-0.13	6	-0.19	12	67%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	27.2	3.3	35.4	19.4	27.6	2.7	38.3	153.9
league avg	46.1	2.3	28.0	14.7	24.5	2.3	29.9	149.2

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +36.5%

SAS +4.5%

SAS +4.0%

SAS +5.1%

LAL -0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	LAL	NBA	SAS	LAL	NBA
this game	14.0	15.0	15.5	87.9	82.0	101.6
season	15.7	15.4		102.5	105.0
opponent	15.1	15.4		102.8	96.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.0	14.1	14.2	13.7	14.0
LAL	18.0	15.9	13.0	13.5	15.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tim Duncan	75	76	0.68	-0.18	0.87	0.33	12	-7	19	14.2	13.3	0.85	15.1	14.5	0.55
Speedy Claxton	58	58	0.61	-0.11	0.71	0.40	7	-2	9	13.3	14.9	-1.62	14.5	15.5	-1.01
Manu Ginobili	45	44	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.40	3	2	1	12.9	14.9	-1.92	13.7	16.0	-2.32
Malik Rose	67	67	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.36	0	5	-5	14.1	13.8	0.29	13.6	17.8	-4.27
Danny Ferry	27	25	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	0	5	13.0	14.3	-1.30	15.8	14.7	1.17
Bruce Bowen	74	74	0.18	0.32	-0.15	0.15	1	4	-3	14.1	13.8	0.29	14.9	15.2	-0.37
Steve Kerr	8	8	0.10	0.40	-0.30	0.07	1	4	-3	12.5	14.1	-1.61	14.4	15.0	-0.64
Steven Smith	51	55	0.08	0.42	-0.35	-0.01	3	2	1	14.6	13.3	1.34	16.0	13.7	2.35
David Robinson	36	39	0.04	0.46	-0.42	-0.02	2	3	-1	15.3	13.2	2.04	16.6	13.9	2.63
Stephen Jackson	8	8	-0.01	0.51	-0.53	0.04	-2	7	-9	15.6	13.8	1.79	17.9	14.7	3.17
Tony Parker	44	44	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	-0.01	-3	8	-11	14.2	13.8	0.40	15.5	14.6	0.88
Kevin Willis	2	2	-0.11	0.61	-0.72	0.01	-4	9	-13	10.5	14.1	-3.55	10.0	15.1	-5.06

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Slava Medvedenko	46	47	0.06	-0.56	0.62	-0.32	13	-18	31	13.6	16.1	-2.58	14.3	13.7	0.65
Kareem Rush	6	6	-0.04	-0.46	0.43	0.02	-2	-3	1	17.5	14.8	2.70	10.7	14.2	-3.53
Soumaila Samake	24	22	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	0.09	-7	2	-9	17.2	14.2	3.01	15.6	13.5	2.07
Tracy Murray	31	31	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.16	1	-6	7	16.2	14.4	1.83	13.1	14.4	-1.24
Brian Shaw	27	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.13	0	-5	5	15.6	14.7	0.87	14.8	13.7	1.12
Derek Fisher	70	70	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.21	-1	-4	3	14.8	15.2	-0.39	13.7	14.6	-0.86
Jannero Pargo	30	30	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.19	-3	-2	-1	13.2	15.7	-2.47	13.2	14.3	-1.17
Devean George	62	62	-0.31	-0.19	-0.11	-0.19	-4	-1	-3	14.8	15.2	-0.36	14.0	14.0	-0.08
Samaki Walker	51	50	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.17	-6	1	-7	15.5	14.4	1.16	13.5	14.5	-1.05
Kobe Bryant	89	87	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-1	-3	15.4	11.7	3.63	13.9	14.2	-0.31
Robert Horry	64	64	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.22	-12	7	-19	14.0	16.6	-2.54	14.7	12.7	2.05

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.35,0.36,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.37,0.42,0.44,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.5,0.58,0.48,0.44,0.52,0.55,0.63,0.55,0.59,0.59,0.56,0.48,0.38,0.52,0.38,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.16,0.17,0.07,0.03,0.04,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 104, DET 96	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.43,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.34,0.32,0.34,0.42,0.44,0.46,0.42,0.37,0.34,0.42,0.49,0.44,0.54,0.51,0.45,0.36,0.48,0.52,0.55,0.59,0.52,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.38,0.23,0.17,0.06,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0,0	94.0%
OKC 111, SAS 105	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.42,0.48,0.44,0.4,0.39,0.34,0.33,0.35,0.35,0.4,0.35,0.4,0.38,0.47,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.49,0.54,0.41,0.39,0.49,0.54,0.58,0.64,0.61,0.52,0.62,0.48,0.45,0.52,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.48,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.15,0.13,0.19,0.11,0.09,0,0	93.8%
NOH 92, POR 77	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.56,0.5,0.45,0.45,0.37,0.45,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.38,0.36,0.34,0.35,0.33,0.34,0.46,0.41,0.46,0.44,0.41,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.48,0.55,0.52,0.66,0.68,0.65,0.7,0.6,0.48,0.5,0.48,0.29,0.28,0.24,0.11,0.16,0.05,0.01,0.01,0,0,0	93.8%