NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	101		Excitement	8.1 [212]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +26.7%
Detroit Pistons	109		Comeback	1.6 [398]		LVP	Will Bynum (DET): -10.2%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.27	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.1,-0.04,0.14,0.34,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27	0.01	0.28	0.01	15	55%	0.40	4	-0.13	8	100%	0.07
DeJuan Blair	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.00	0.00	3	55%	0.03	0	0.00	5	80%	0.00
Keith Bogans	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01	0.10	-0.05	0.06	21	58%	0.06	2	-0.07	8	75%	-0.01
George Hill	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.04	-0.05	0.00	16	49%	-0.01	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Richard Jefferson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	8	75%	0.01
Antonio McDyess	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.04	0.01	10	62%	0.05	3	-0.10	1	100%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.02	6	17%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.11,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.12,0.19,0.18	0.18	0.08	0.11	0.00	15	59%	0.22	1	-0.04	4	75%	0.01
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.17,0.17,0.18	0.18	0.06	0.14	0.02	19	57%	0.27	3	-0.09	9	100%	0.09
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.00	0.04	-0.01	8	44%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	7	44%	0.00	1	-0.01	2	50%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	40%	-0.02	0	0.00	10	40%	-0.05
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	3	40%	-0.03	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.03
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	0.08	-0.08	0.03	14	66%	0.03	2	-0.06	4	100%	0.00
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.1,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	13	53%	0.04	3	-0.08	4	75%	-0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	-0.02	3	-0.08	3	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.6	1.8	34.4	17.7	26.2	3.5	36.8	1.8	18.4	166.2
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	2.0	39.8	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +10.1%

SAS -2.1%

DET +52.2%

DET +0.3%

SAS -10.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	15.6	17.5	15.3	105.2	113.5	106.0
season	15.9	16.8		108.2	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.1		109.8	103.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAS	15.9	17.1	14.7	14.2	17.2	15.6
DET	16.8	17.2	18.0	17.7	18.1	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Roger Mason Jr.	53	56	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.25	-11	3	-14	16.3	14.8	1.53	17.1	18.0	-0.92
DeJuan Blair	25	25	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.07	-1	-7	6	15.5	15.6	-0.13	18.0	17.3	0.72
Antonio McDyess	57	56	-0.12	-0.38	0.25	-0.24	4	-12	16	15.3	16.1	-0.82	17.6	17.3	0.28
Manu Ginobili	71	71	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.34	7	-15	22	14.3	19.3	-4.96	17.7	16.9	0.85
George Hill	78	76	-0.38	-0.12	-0.25	-0.20	-6	-2	-4	15.7	15.1	0.62	17.5	17.5	0.01
Tim Duncan	71	71	-0.40	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	-1	-6	15.6	15.5	0.13	17.3	18.0	-0.72
Richard Jefferson	55	56	-0.58	0.08	-0.66	-0.14	-15	7	-22	15.9	15.2	0.77	17.1	18.1	-0.97
Keith Bogans	70	69	-0.72	0.22	-0.94	-0.40	-11	3	-14	16.3	13.8	2.48	17.8	16.7	1.12

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Stuckey	67	69	0.40	0.10	0.31	0.11	10	-2	12	17.4	17.8	-0.36	15.6	15.8	-0.23
Ben Wallace	61	62	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.25	4	4	0	16.9	18.5	-1.62	15.6	15.7	-0.14
Ben Gordon	62	61	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.20	5	3	2	17.2	18.0	-0.76	15.8	15.3	0.56
Jason Maxiell	33	33	0.32	0.18	0.15	0.12	7	1	6	18.2	17.1	1.07	16.1	15.4	0.68
Jonas Jerebko	55	56	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	6	-4	17.6	17.4	0.25	15.3	16.0	-0.75
Richard Hamilton	62	62	0.29	0.21	0.08	-0.00	10	-2	12	18.2	16.3	1.84	15.2	16.4	-1.28
Charlie Villanueva	30	29	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.13	2	6	-4	17.5	17.5	-0.06	16.1	15.4	0.70
Tayshaun Prince	81	81	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.12	2	6	-4	17.3	18.5	-1.21	15.7	15.1	0.57
Will Bynum	29	27	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.15	-2	10	-12	17.8	17.4	0.36	15.8	15.6	0.23

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.59,0.63,0.6,0.61,0.61,0.57,0.55,0.47,0.5,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.44,0.47,0.48,0.46,0.54,0.64,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.43,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.65,0.71,0.69,0.66,0.77,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.79,0.76,0.88,0.86,0.89,0.95,0.98,0.98,0.91,0.83,0.39,0.38,0.64,0.91,0.97,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 111, DEN 115	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.74,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.77,0.73,1	90.7%
MEM 89, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.59,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.94,0.78,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.77,0.98,1	90.0%
SAC 110, POR 116	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.85,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.78,0.99,1	89.4%