NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	110		Excitement	8.7 [140]		MVP	Bonzi Wells (POR): +39.0%
Portland Trail Blazers	116		Comeback	2.3 [496]		LVP	Scottie Pippen (POR): -30.4%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.31	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.23,0.19,0.19,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.37,0.31,0.31	0.13	0.19	0.00	18	67%	0.34	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.03
Doug Christie	0.06	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.02	0.08	-0.00	9	50%	0.11	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Hedo Turkoglu	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.02	4	67%	0.03	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.04
Vlade Divac	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	5	64%	0.02	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.01
Chris Webber	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.08,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.07,0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03	0.05	-0.06	0.03	24	68%	0.18	7	-0.21	2	50%	-0.01
Bobby Jackson	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	0.00	7	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Scot Pollard	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.03	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Peja Stojakovic	-0.22	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.05	-0.18	-0.01	18	50%	-0.13	3	-0.09	6	83%	0.00

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Bonzi Wells	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13,0.18,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.26,0.26,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.14	0.25	-0.00	25	63%	0.40	1	-0.01	4	75%	-0.01
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.19,0.16,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.19,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.12,0.12,0.12,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.15,0.15,0.14	0.14	0.17	-0.01	0.01	21	69%	0.18	1	-0.04	6	83%	0.04
Shawn Kemp	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.03	0.08	0.00	5	60%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Dale Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.03	0.02	0.00	11	59%	0.05	0	0.00	7	71%	0.00
Chris Dudley	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ruben Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Damon Stoudamire	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	0.01	15	47%	-0.01	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.00
Derek Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.05	0.00	5	30%	-0.04	3	-0.09	0	0%	0.00
Scottie Pippen	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.11,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3	-0.30	-0.15	-0.17	-0.02	11	21%	-0.20	2	-0.10	2	50%	-0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	22.3	2.7	25.7	19.0	27.2	2.8	38.7	1.7	18.2	158.2
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

POR +13.5%

SAC -3.8%

POR +45.8%

SAC -2.1%

SAC -3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	POR	NBA	SAC	POR	NBA
this game	13.2	16.5	15.6	102.8	108.4	102.3
season	14.2	16.0		106.6	105.0
opponent	15.6	15.5		102.2	99.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
SAC	12.6	15.5	13.1	12.3	11.6	13.2
POR	14.5	15.8	17.7	19.0	15.6	16.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike Bibby	84	85	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.25	5	-11	16	12.3	16.4	-4.15	16.6	16.3	0.28
Hedo Turkoglu	41	42	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.10	-1	-5	4	13.4	13.0	0.42	15.3	17.4	-2.07
Scot Pollard	37	35	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.03	-8	2	-10	14.6	12.4	2.17	16.5	16.6	-0.08
Bobby Jackson	24	22	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.04	-11	5	-16	15.8	12.4	3.42	16.3	16.6	-0.28
Doug Christie	88	87	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	-0.33	0	-6	6	12.6	15.8	-3.18	16.7	16.0	0.67
Chris Webber	103	103	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.37	-1	-5	4	12.9	20.7	-7.87	16.5	17.0	-0.48
Vlade Divac	70	72	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.35	-3	-3	0	13.4	12.8	0.60	17.2	15.1	2.08
Peja Stojakovic	88	89	-0.56	0.06	-0.61	-0.23	-11	5	-16	13.3	12.5	0.86	16.5	16.7	-0.22

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bonzi Wells	89	88	0.63	-0.13	0.76	0.25	13	-7	20	16.4	17.1	-0.62	13.0	13.8	-0.74
Dale Davis	79	80	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.38	7	-1	8	17.0	15.2	1.85	13.4	12.4	0.98
Rasheed Wallace	99	98	0.57	-0.07	0.64	0.31	9	-3	12	16.6	15.6	0.99	12.9	16.0	-3.08
Damon Stoudamire	91	93	0.53	-0.03	0.57	0.21	11	-5	16	16.6	16.1	0.56	13.1	13.4	-0.29
Scottie Pippen	94	93	0.24	0.26	-0.03	0.33	-3	9	-12	16.6	15.8	0.79	12.9	15.2	-2.34
Derek Anderson	40	40	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.03	3	3	0	15.3	17.3	-1.90	12.9	13.3	-0.40
Chris Dudley	5	5	0.10	0.40	-0.29	-0.04	5	1	4	16.8	16.5	0.27	18.0	12.9	5.06
Ruben Patterson	11	11	-0.13	0.63	-0.76	0.05	-6	12	-18	16.1	16.6	-0.50	14.7	13.0	1.73
Shawn Kemp	27	27	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	0.11	-9	15	-24	16.5	16.6	-0.08	13.9	12.9	0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.85,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.78,0.99,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 118, LAL 124	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.43,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.74,0.64,0.76,0.87,0.86,0.96,0.78,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.63,0.77,0.83,1	90.6%
LAL 115, UTA 123	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.61,0.61,0.68,0.66,0.68,0.61,0.68,0.68,0.7,0.64,0.68,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.7,0.73,0.74,0.67,0.61,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.55,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.66,0.82,0.85,0.89,0.92,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.99,0.96,0.9,0.84,0.54,0.45,0.71,0.85,0.83,1	90.2%
ORL 103, DAL 109	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.39,0.55,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.95,0.89,0.68,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.85,1	89.8%