NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	103		Excitement	8.4 [204]		MVP	Josh Howard (DAL): +28.9%
Dallas Mavericks	109		Comeback	2.1 [796]		LVP	Adrian Griffin (DAL): -12.2%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Grant Hill	0.25	0,0,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.05,0.13,0.37,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.27,0.25	0.11	0.14	0.00	19	58%	0.28	1	-0.03	10	80%	0.08
Hedo Turkoglu	0.20	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.12	0.08	-0.00	11	77%	0.23	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Pat Garrity	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.02	-0.02	2	100%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Dwight Howard	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.02	0.04	-0.00	11	45%	0.05	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Steve Francis	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,0.03,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	13	52%	0.05	2	-0.06	5	80%	0.01
Mario Kasun	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	-0.02	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.01	8	43%	-0.00	1	-0.02	7	57%	-0.02
Jameer Nelson	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,-0.03,-0.03	0.02	-0.06	-0.01	9	61%	0.12	2	-0.15	5	60%	-0.02
Tony Battie	-0.06	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.04	-0.02	0.00	7	29%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Dallas Mavericks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Josh Howard	0,0,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.13,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.2,0.3,0.3,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29	0.29	0.18	0.14	0.03	14	75%	0.30	1	-0.02	4	100%	0.02
Dirk Nowitzki	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.09,-0.04,0.03,0.1,0.2,0.2,0.29	0.29	0.12	0.19	0.02	19	67%	0.37	3	-0.08	8	87%	0.03
Jason Terry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.27,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.03	-0.01	15	58%	0.14	0	0.00	8	62%	0.03
Devin Harris	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.09	0.08	-0.04	18	45%	0.15	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03
DJ Mbenga	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	2	100%	0.06	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeSagana Diop	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Keith Van Horn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	5	50%	0.02	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Darrell Armstrong	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	50%	0.00	1	-0.02	2	50%	0.00
Erick Dampier	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	5	40%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Adrian Griffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.09	-0.04	-0.01	6	0%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	27.4	2.6	26.8	15.4	22.5	2.6	31.1	1.6	16.2	146.2
league avg	33.9	2.4	29.5	14.7	26.7	2.4	34.0	1.8	17.8	144.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DAL +32.6%

ORL -12.0%

DAL +23.5%

ORL -0.3%

DAL +6.2%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	DAL	NBA	ORL	DAL	NBA
this game	15.3	17.0	15.6	103.0	112.4	104.4
season	16.4	16.4		104.4	109.0
opponent	15.6	15.7		102.9	105.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	16.6	13.5	15.9	16.3	13.3	15.3
DAL	14.0	17.2	17.7	20.6	15.4	17.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mario Kasun	18	17	0.04	-0.54	0.58	0.01	1	-7	8	14.0	15.5	-1.55	16.0	17.3	-1.26
Pat Garrity	33	32	-0.19	-0.31	0.13	-0.19	0	-6	6	13.9	15.9	-1.99	15.8	17.6	-1.79
DeShawn Stevenson	57	54	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.13	-11	5	-16	15.7	14.7	1.09	15.7	18.7	-3.06
Tony Battie	46	44	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	0.04	-8	2	-10	16.5	14.3	2.20	15.0	18.7	-3.65
Steve Francis	78	74	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.22	-1	-5	4	15.3	15.3	-0.00	17.1	16.9	0.23
Jameer Nelson	56	56	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.44	6	-12	18	14.6	16.2	-1.59	17.7	16.1	1.63
Grant Hill	70	69	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.26	-6	0	-6	15.0	15.9	-0.85	17.5	15.8	1.71
Hedo Turkoglu	70	69	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.40	-2	-4	2	15.0	16.0	-1.04	18.0	14.7	3.22
Dwight Howard	72	70	-0.56	0.06	-0.63	-0.30	-9	3	-12	16.2	13.0	3.20	18.1	14.2	3.91

Dallas Mavericks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jason Terry	74	78	0.56	-0.06	0.62	0.24	11	-5	16	17.0	17.3	-0.29	15.4	14.6	0.81
Dirk Nowitzki	79	82	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.21	8	-2	10	17.4	15.6	1.82	14.9	16.8	-1.91
Erick Dampier	56	60	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.08	9	-3	12	15.8	18.8	-2.97	15.6	14.7	0.87
Keith Van Horn	43	43	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.22	1	5	-4	17.8	16.4	1.43	14.8	15.6	-0.76
Josh Howard	49	53	0.20	0.30	-0.09	0.03	6	0	6	16.2	17.9	-1.73	16.2	14.2	2.08
DeSagana Diop	19	18	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.25	-3	9	-12	18.7	16.6	2.04	16.7	15.0	1.70
Devin Harris	70	69	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.30	-6	12	-18	17.9	14.9	3.03	14.6	16.7	-2.04
DJ Mbenga	17	17	0.05	0.45	-0.39	-0.00	2	4	-2	19.1	16.6	2.45	15.5	15.2	0.24
Adrian Griffin	58	60	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.09	2	4	-2	16.7	17.5	-0.79	15.5	15.0	0.49
Darrell Armstrong	10	9	-0.11	0.61	-0.71	0.07	-6	12	-18	13.7	17.4	-3.73	13.7	15.4	-1.76

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.6,0.56,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.53,0.56,0.55,0.55,0.54,0.54,0.56,0.5,0.48,0.48,0.45,0.48,0.36,0.39,0.55,0.66,0.59,0.63,0.56,0.46,0.57,0.71,0.72,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.83,0.95,0.89,0.68,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.55,0.57,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIA 118, LAL 124	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.62,0.68,0.61,0.6,0.51,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.58,0.65,0.65,0.56,0.57,0.56,0.57,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.55,0.48,0.43,0.58,0.71,0.69,0.79,0.63,0.6,0.54,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.74,0.64,0.76,0.87,0.86,0.96,0.78,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.63,0.77,0.83,1	91.2%
SAC 110, POR 116	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.48,0.47,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.64,0.68,0.63,0.58,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.64,0.68,0.65,0.65,0.7,0.7,0.64,0.54,0.49,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.59,0.72,0.66,0.67,0.72,0.58,0.7,0.71,0.71,0.77,0.79,0.76,0.72,0.81,0.85,0.94,0.85,0.46,0.46,0.46,0.78,0.99,1	89.8%
MEM 123, NOH 125	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.6,0.62,0.64,0.65,0.69,0.69,0.7,0.68,0.62,0.64,0.55,0.49,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.39,0.4,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.52,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.59,0.56,0.52,0.5,0.52,0.47,0.58,0.53,0.64,0.76,0.86,0.86,0.84,0.9,0.91,0.54,0.64,0.45,0.57,0.73,1	89.0%