NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	111		Excitement	10.4 [52]		MVP	LaMarcus Aldridge (POR): +41.8%
Denver Nuggets	115		Comeback	1.8 [830]		LVP	Damian Lillard (POR): -21.3%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
LaMarcus Aldridge	0.42	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.27,0.12,0.12,0.42	0.10	0.31	-0.00	22	58%	0.48	2	-0.06	8	100%	0.12
JJ Hickson	0.16	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.03,0.16,0.16	0.12	0.06	0.01	8	90%	0.33	3	-0.17	5	100%	0.08
Wesley Matthews	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.09,0,0,0,-0.04,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.16	-0.01	0.13	-0.04	13	54%	0.21	3	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Nicolas Batum	0.05	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.08,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.05,0.05	0.02	0.04	-0.00	17	55%	0.14	3	-0.09	6	67%	-0.00
Jared Jeffries	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luke Babbitt	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	3	50%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Will Barton	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	7	44%	0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Joel Freeland	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Ronnie Price	-0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	3	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.21	-0.02	-0.18	0.01	14	47%	-0.14	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Danilo Gallinari	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.13,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.05,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.37,0.37	0.37	0.12	0.26	0.01	14	69%	0.45	2	-0.08	8	75%	-0.01
Wilson Chandler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.28	0.28	-0.01	0.29	-0.00	13	48%	0.35	2	-0.06	1	100%	0.00
Kenneth Faried	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.17	0.06	0.01	12	78%	0.22	0	0.00	3	100%	0.03
Ty Lawson	0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.16,0.22,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.06	0.12	0.02	19	57%	0.22	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.01
JaVale McGee	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.11	0.11	-0.04	0.15	-0.00	7	29%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Corey Brewer	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	0.00	6	58%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.05	0.02	-0.00	6	67%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.00	6	33%	-0.02	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Andre Iguodala	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.16,-0.16,-0.19,-0.35,-0.35,-0.2,-0.09,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.15	-0.05	-0.02	16	26%	-0.13	2	-0.05	3	0%	-0.04

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	25.9	2.4	22.5	15.4	25.5	1.6	27.5	1.8	19.0	141.7
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.5	14.0	26.8	2.3	33.1	2.0	17.3	134.3

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DEN +73.0%

POR -38.8%

POR -31.4%

DEN +32.7%

DEN +14.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	DEN	NBA	POR	DEN	NBA
this game	15.4	15.8	15.4	108.8	112.7	104.1
season	15.8	14.4		104.3	108.4
opponent	15.4	15.3		104.0	107.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
POR	14.4	16.7	15.1	15.5	15.3	15.4
DEN	13.9	16.8	13.1	19.5	18.0	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
JJ Hickson	67	68	0.04	-0.54	0.57	-0.02	2	-6	8	15.3	15.5	-0.13	14.9	17.6	-2.72
Joel Freeland	6	5	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	0.04	-2	-2	0	15.5	15.4	0.14	17.2	15.7	1.47
Ronnie Price	20	19	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.06	1	-5	6	14.4	15.6	-1.15	19.3	15.0	4.25
Luke Babbitt	29	30	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.09	2	-6	8	14.8	15.6	-0.81	15.1	16.1	-0.95
Will Barton	34	34	-0.13	-0.37	0.23	-0.08	-2	-2	0	14.6	15.7	-1.13	16.7	15.4	1.31
Nicolas Batum	87	88	-0.35	-0.15	-0.20	-0.47	4	-8	12	15.3	15.7	-0.34	15.6	17.4	-1.80
Jared Jeffries	16	16	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.35	-3	-1	-2	14.0	15.6	-1.63	20.1	15.0	5.05
Damian Lillard	82	83	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.32	-5	1	-6	15.6	14.4	1.15	15.0	19.3	-4.25
Wesley Matthews	83	82	-0.52	0.02	-0.53	-0.22	-10	6	-16	15.7	13.8	1.95	15.7	16.2	-0.49
LaMarcus Aldridge	86	85	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.35	-7	3	-10	15.8	12.8	3.04	15.9	15.4	0.47

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Andre Iguodala	79	81	0.54	-0.04	0.57	0.27	9	-5	14	15.6	16.4	-0.81	15.4	15.2	0.23
Ty Lawson	76	76	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.27	7	-3	10	15.5	16.7	-1.14	16.0	13.6	2.36
Wilson Chandler	39	39	0.44	0.06	0.38	0.44	0	4	-4	15.5	16.0	-0.47	13.0	16.9	-3.88
Kosta Koufos	45	46	0.39	0.11	0.28	-0.05	15	-11	26	13.0	18.1	-5.10	16.2	14.7	1.58
Danilo Gallinari	83	82	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.40	-1	5	-6	15.3	17.9	-2.63	15.4	15.2	0.15
Kenneth Faried	60	60	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.11	7	-3	10	14.8	17.2	-2.32	16.5	13.7	2.78
Corey Brewer	37	35	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.14	-4	8	-12	17.4	14.9	2.43	14.5	15.8	-1.35
JaVale McGee	37	37	-0.06	0.56	-0.62	0.20	-9	13	-22	18.5	14.3	4.25	14.7	15.8	-1.05
Andre Miller	45	45	-0.28	0.78	-1.05	-0.04	-8	12	-20	18.0	14.1	3.85	15.1	15.6	-0.43

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.59,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.59,0.59,0.57,0.57,0.45,0.42,0.46,0.38,0.36,0.44,0.44,0.4,0.41,0.51,0.56,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.48,0.58,0.48,0.62,0.71,0.62,0.66,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.87,0.88,0.83,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.78,0.93,0.93,0.91,0.74,0.54,0.54,0.54,0.77,0.73,1
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 111, MIA 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.66,0.8,0.89,0.85,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.68,0.83,1	91.3%
MIA 96, CLE 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.85,0.73,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.56,0.85,1	91.0%
MEM 89, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.59,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.94,0.78,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.77,0.98,1	90.9%