NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Miami Heat	96		Excitement	9.2 [91]		MVP	Eddie Jones (MIA): +41.9%
Cleveland Cavaliers	100		Comeback	1.7 [412]		LVP	Lamond Murray (CLE): -39.0%

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Eddie Jones	0.42	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.11,0.11,0.42,0.42,0.36,0.36,0.42,0.42	0.10	0.31	-0.01	15	67%	0.47	1	-0.05	10	80%	0.10
Chris Gatling	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.01	0.01	7	74%	0.09	1	-0.04	9	56%	-0.03
Eddie House	0.01	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.05	0.01	0.05	14	61%	0.05	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tang Hamilton	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Alonzo Mourning	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.06	-0.10	0.02	-0.02	10	61%	0.14	7	-0.20	3	67%	-0.00
Sean Marks	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.05	-0.03	0.00	3	30%	-0.08	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.01
LaPhonso Ellis	-0.14	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.12,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	0.01	-0.15	0.01	9	56%	-0.12	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Rod Strickland	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17	-0.12	-0.06	-0.01	10	27%	-0.08	2	-0.08	2	100%	0.01
Anthony Carter	-0.36	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.18,-0.3,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36,-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	8	11%	-0.33	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.02

Cleveland Cavaliers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Wesley Person	0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.41,0.41	0.41	0.15	0.25	0.00	16	74%	0.45	1	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Andre Miller	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.11,0.1,0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.11,0.15	0.15	0.01	0.14	0.00	15	58%	0.20	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.05	0.04	-0.03	10	43%	0.02	0	0.00	8	75%	0.04
Chris Mihm	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.02	-0.02	8	50%	0.03	1	-0.01	4	100%	0.02
Brian Skinner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	5	75%	0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Jumaine Jones	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	5	62%	0.03	2	-0.07	3	67%	0.00
Jeff Trepagnier	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bimbo Coles	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.09	-0.02	-0.02	3	0%	-0.03	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Lamond Murray	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.26,-0.37,-0.39	-0.39	-0.13	-0.23	0.03	19	35%	-0.34	2	-0.05	5	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1	Total
this game	28.4	2.6	32.2	15.7	24.1	2.3	36.8	1.7	15.9	159.7
league avg	46.4	2.2	28.5	14.6	24.5	2.3	30.0	1.7	16.7	149.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

CLE +22.7%

CLE +13.1%

CLE +5.4%

CLE +7.8%

CLE +1.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIA	CLE	NBA	MIA	CLE	NBA
this game	15.9	17.7	15.6	102.1	105.3	102.3
season	16.5	15.8		96.6	102.6
opponent	15.5	15.8		106.2	98.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
MIA	12.9	15.9	19.2	15.3	18.1	15.9
CLE	16.9	17.6	15.1	19.9	22.1	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tang Hamilton	16	13	0.17	-0.67	0.85	0.06	4	-8	12	16.4	15.9	0.52	19.5	17.4	2.05
Chris Gatling	40	42	-0.04	-0.46	0.42	-0.25	7	-11	18	14.9	16.7	-1.78	18.9	16.8	2.08
Sean Marks	22	24	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.13	1	-5	6	17.3	15.5	1.73	15.4	18.5	-3.05
Anthony Carter	70	72	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.01	-4	0	-4	16.7	13.9	2.78	17.4	18.5	-1.03
Eddie Jones	84	86	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.33	-4	0	-4	15.3	21.1	-5.77	17.7	17.6	0.15
Alonzo Mourning	63	63	-0.47	-0.03	-0.45	-0.24	-8	4	-12	16.0	15.7	0.31	18.0	17.2	0.76
Eddie House	78	80	-0.48	-0.02	-0.47	-0.40	-3	-1	-2	15.9	16.0	-0.06	17.4	19.0	-1.55
Rod Strickland	39	38	-0.48	-0.01	-0.47	-0.46	-1	-3	2	15.1	16.5	-1.44	18.7	17.0	1.65
LaPhonso Ellis	58	57	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.17	-12	8	-20	16.5	15.0	1.53	17.1	18.6	-1.52

Cleveland Cavaliers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jumaine Jones	51	49	0.75	-0.25	0.99	0.37	13	-9	22	16.6	18.9	-2.26	16.1	15.8	0.37
Andre Miller	82	82	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.38	8	-4	12	17.4	19.5	-2.14	16.6	11.6	5.00
Wesley Person	85	82	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.29	7	-3	10	18.0	15.1	2.90	15.3	20.1	-4.74
Lamond Murray	62	65	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.10	12	-8	20	17.1	18.8	-1.67	16.1	15.6	0.57
Ricky Davis	54	55	0.23	0.27	-0.05	0.43	-7	11	-18	19.1	15.8	3.32	15.7	16.2	-0.49
Chris Mihm	61	62	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.04	1	3	-2	17.0	19.0	-1.99	17.2	13.5	3.71
Jeff Trepagnier	10	9	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	2	0	17.3	17.7	-0.44	10.2	16.6	-6.33
Brian Skinner	50	45	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	0.29	-11	15	-26	18.6	16.7	1.95	15.0	16.8	-1.77
Bimbo Coles	20	21	-0.10	0.60	-0.70	0.05	-5	9	-14	18.2	17.5	0.70	16.1	15.9	0.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.52,0.63,0.58,0.62,0.59,0.51,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.52,0.47,0.45,0.38,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.44,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.5,0.48,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.62,0.63,0.63,0.68,0.74,0.74,0.66,0.76,0.72,0.69,0.85,0.73,0.81,0.85,0.78,0.58,0.46,0.61,0.63,0.56,0.85,1
Game		Similarity Score
MEM 89, SAS 95	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.62,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.4,0.4,0.42,0.4,0.47,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.42,0.51,0.46,0.49,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.55,0.64,0.68,0.59,0.65,0.59,0.67,0.79,0.85,0.87,0.82,0.8,0.84,0.94,0.94,0.91,0.86,0.94,0.78,0.58,0.54,0.61,0.63,0.77,0.98,1	91.9%
BKN 111, CHA 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.48,0.44,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.4,0.51,0.51,0.47,0.42,0.49,0.46,0.39,0.39,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.49,0.61,0.58,0.48,0.68,0.74,0.72,0.73,0.74,0.64,0.7,0.74,0.7,0.76,0.63,0.7,0.81,0.67,0.69,0.84,0.91,0.72,0.54,0.61,0.54,0.67,0.69,1	91.8%
LAL 111, MIA 114	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.48,0.54,0.49,0.43,0.53,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.44,0.46,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.52,0.52,0.45,0.66,0.73,0.67,0.62,0.74,0.74,0.85,0.86,0.77,0.74,0.81,0.66,0.8,0.89,0.85,0.58,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.68,0.83,1	91.3%