NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	99		Excitement	9.1 [112]		MVP	Keith Bogans (SAS): +16.5%
San Antonio Spurs	100		Comeback	15.5 [259]		LVP	T.J. Ford (IND): -38.3%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Troy Murphy	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.14	0.04	0.02	13	75%	0.20	1	-0.04	2	100%	0.02
Brandon Rush	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11	0.04	0.06	-0.01	8	56%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luther Head	0.09	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.07	0.03	0.01	6	75%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,-0.07,0.08,0.08	0.06	0.02	0.00	15	62%	0.22	2	-0.13	2	100%	0.02
Dahntay Jones	0.01	0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.05	0.04	-0.02	2	37%	0.04	2	-0.03	4	75%	0.02
Tyler Hansbrough	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.02	0.01	0.01	9	43%	0.02	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.02
Jeff Foster	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mike Dunleavy	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	0.01	-0.06	0.01	10	48%	-0.05	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Earl Watson	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	-0.38	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0,-0.11,-0.38	-0.02	-0.38	-0.01	12	50%	-0.23	2	-0.15	4	50%	-0.02

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Keith Bogans	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12,0.15,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.13	0.05	0.01	8	87%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09	0.09	-0.02	0.10	-0.00	18	46%	0.13	2	-0.04	5	60%	-0.01
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.06	-0.00	7	55%	0.09	0	0.00	8	62%	-0.02
Richard Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	8	56%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.00	4	78%	0.07	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Malik Hairston	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeJuan Blair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	25%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.05
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	4	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.03
Tony Parker	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.12,-0.18,-0.18,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.04	0.00	17	33%	-0.15	1	-0.01	12	58%	-0.02
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.23	-0.23	-0.03	-0.19	0.00	8	59%	-0.13	4	-0.10	6	100%	0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.0	1.8	29.0	14.8	27.2	2.5	35.3	136.6
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND -16.7%

IND -6.3%

SAS +39.4%

SAS +26.7%

SAS +6.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	SAS	NBA	IND	SAS	NBA
this game	15.5	15.7	15.3	106.5	108.7	106.0
season	14.2	15.9		102.2	108.2
opponent	15.1	15.1		103.4	105.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	14.6	14.6	14.4	18.9	15.5
SAS	16.7	14.8	15.0	16.2	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Luther Head	40	40	0.42	-0.92	1.35	0.10	11	-12	23	15.3	15.6	-0.32	16.3	15.2	1.10
Tyler Hansbrough	49	46	0.10	-0.60	0.71	0.25	-5	4	-9	15.0	16.1	-1.11	15.2	16.1	-0.96
Troy Murphy	52	52	0.04	-0.54	0.59	-0.04	3	-4	7	15.5	15.5	-0.05	15.8	15.4	0.45
Jeff Foster	5	6	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	0.04	-5	4	-9	16.4	15.4	0.97	15.0	15.7	-0.70
Earl Watson	45	45	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.49	13	-14	27	14.5	16.4	-1.88	15.6	15.7	-0.10
Roy Hibbert	68	67	-0.22	-0.28	0.07	-0.57	12	-13	25	15.3	16.0	-0.71	16.0	14.7	1.33
Mike Dunleavy	56	55	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.33	2	-3	5	15.0	16.2	-1.22	14.9	16.7	-1.80
Dahntay Jones	45	48	-0.78	0.28	-1.07	-0.64	-5	4	-9	16.7	14.4	2.33	15.8	15.5	0.25
T.J. Ford	49	47	-0.79	0.28	-1.07	-0.32	-16	15	-31	16.1	14.7	1.39	15.7	15.6	0.10
Brandon Rush	56	54	-0.80	0.30	-1.10	-0.36	-15	14	-29	16.0	14.8	1.21	15.7	15.6	0.04

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Richard Jefferson	46	46	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.50	11	-10	21	15.4	15.9	-0.43	16.4	14.6	1.80
George Hill	50	50	0.83	-0.33	1.15	0.39	15	-14	29	15.9	15.3	0.59	15.8	15.2	0.60
Tim Duncan	59	60	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.65	-4	5	-9	15.4	16.2	-0.78	15.8	14.9	0.89
Manu Ginobili	47	51	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.23	7	-6	13	15.9	15.4	0.54	16.0	14.9	1.06
Roger Mason Jr.	44	46	0.42	0.08	0.33	0.30	4	-3	7	16.4	14.9	1.49	14.5	16.5	-1.99
Matt Bonner	10	11	0.19	0.31	-0.11	-0.10	10	-9	19	13.6	15.9	-2.30	13.5	15.7	-2.20
Keith Bogans	51	50	0.04	0.46	-0.42	0.27	-8	9	-17	14.5	17.0	-2.52	15.8	15.1	0.68
Malik Hairston	2	2	0.03	0.47	-0.44	-0.03	2	-1	3	19.5	15.6	3.93	19.5	15.4	4.10
DeJuan Blair	39	40	-0.04	0.54	-0.57	-0.15	4	-3	7	15.5	15.8	-0.24	15.6	15.4	0.20
Tony Parker	65	63	-0.19	0.69	-0.87	0.28	-16	17	-33	15.6	15.8	-0.18	15.5	15.5	-0.02
Antonio McDyess	47	46	-0.57	1.07	-1.65	0.01	-20	21	-41	16.6	14.6	1.97	14.2	16.7	-2.55

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.26,0.2,0.15,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.09,0.18,0.19,0.28,0.38,0.54,0.68,0.42,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 111, WAS 116	0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.82,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.43,0.57,0.77,1	91.5%
BOS 104, NYK 106	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.55,0.57,0.6,0.62,0.61,0.59,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.66,0.77,0.79,0.85,0.8,0.79,0.74,0.74,0.77,0.8,0.78,0.81,0.8,0.72,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.28,0.34,0.3,0.25,0.19,0.12,0.21,0.21,0.27,0.26,0.35,0.18,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.58,1	89.0%
MEM 111, NOH 113	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.62,0.58,0.55,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.65,0.72,0.7,0.75,0.75,0.78,0.76,0.71,0.71,0.64,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.77,0.69,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.48,0.41,0.32,0.23,0.2,0.21,0.38,0.3,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.21,0.09,0.05,0.07,0.46,0.55,0.74,1	89.0%