NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	111		Excitement	8.3 [230]		MVP	Antawn Jamison (WAS): +15.4%
Washington Wizards	116		Comeback	9.7 [233]		LVP	Andrew Bogut (MIL): -8.3%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Dan Gadzuric	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.08	0.04	0.00	10	60%	0.11	0	0.00	5	60%	-0.01
Charlie Bell	0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.00	0.10	-0.00	7	47%	0.13	1	-0.03	3	100%	0.03
Michael Redd	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.1,0.14,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,0.07	0.08	0.00	0.01	21	58%	0.14	3	-0.07	6	100%	0.05
Ruben Patterson	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	7	60%	0.10	3	-0.08	1	100%	0.01
Mo Williams	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.02	-0.04	0.05	-0.02	15	40%	0.04	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Brian Skinner	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.00	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Villanueva	-0.05	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.06,-0.05	0.00	-0.05	0.00	14	56%	0.01	3	-0.06	4	75%	-0.01
Andrew Bogut	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.08,-0.08	0.04	-0.09	0.03	10	58%	0.03	1	-0.12	6	50%	-0.02

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antawn Jamison	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.08	0.01	19	59%	0.20	2	-0.05	3	67%	0.00
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.13	0.13	0.08	0.05	-0.00	22	56%	0.14	2	-0.01	8	100%	0.05
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.04	-0.01	8	57%	0.20	2	-0.12	7	100%	0.06
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.06	0.00	-0.01	7	75%	0.12	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.05
Brendan Haywood	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.04	-0.00	0.00	2	83%	0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.03	0.01	3	50%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.03
Caron Butler	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,0.13,0.12,0.12,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.05	0.06	-0.02	13	44%	0.09	3	-0.06	6	67%	0.03
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.05	-0.02	0.01	5	71%	0.05	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.02

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.3	2.3	30.5	16.3	31.6	2.5	42.2	148.7
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

WAS +4.5%

WAS +28.6%

WAS +4.6%

WAS +12.3%

WAS +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	WAS	NBA	MIL	WAS	NBA
this game	14.5	14.7	15.4	112.1	118.4	104.5
season	15.2	14.8		105.3	107.8
opponent	15.3	15.5		108.7	109.9

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	16.5	13.1	14.5	14.1	14.5
WAS	12.8	16.4	14.9	14.7	14.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Ruben Patterson	43	43	-0.03	-0.47	0.43	-0.03	0	-5	5	16.1	13.3	2.75	15.5	14.1	1.36
Dan Gadzuric	35	35	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.06	0	-5	5	13.8	14.9	-1.14	15.9	14.1	1.79
Mo Williams	75	76	-0.10	-0.40	0.30	-0.42	11	-16	27	14.3	15.1	-0.78	14.5	15.5	-0.97
Andrew Bogut	73	73	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.36	6	-11	17	14.9	13.6	1.30	15.1	13.5	1.64
Brian Skinner	14	13	-0.19	-0.31	0.11	0.10	-10	5	-15	14.4	14.6	-0.12	13.6	14.9	-1.26
Steve Blake	38	37	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	0.17	-15	10	-25	14.6	14.5	0.11	15.9	14.0	2.00
Charlie Villanueva	65	65	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.36	3	-8	11	14.1	15.3	-1.20	14.1	15.8	-1.73
Michael Redd	87	85	-0.60	0.10	-0.70	-0.42	-6	1	-7	14.6	14.3	0.23	14.1	18.4	-4.24
Charlie Bell	65	63	-0.79	0.28	-1.07	-0.37	-14	9	-23	14.1	15.4	-1.29	14.2	15.7	-1.48

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Antonio Daniels	53	54	0.78	-0.28	1.07	0.34	15	-10	25	15.3	14.0	1.38	14.4	14.8	-0.40
Antawn Jamison	81	82	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.41	7	-2	9	14.3	16.8	-2.56	14.1	16.8	-2.69
Etan Thomas	47	47	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.43	2	3	-1	14.7	14.7	-0.09	14.7	14.4	0.36
Gilbert Arenas	93	94	0.45	0.05	0.39	0.36	3	2	1	14.3	22.2	-7.90	14.3	18.8	-4.49
Caron Butler	76	76	0.43	0.07	0.35	0.43	0	5	-5	14.2	16.3	-2.08	14.4	14.8	-0.38
Brendan Haywood	33	33	0.18	0.32	-0.14	-0.17	12	-7	19	15.9	14.1	1.86	15.3	14.1	1.20
Michael Ruffin	18	19	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	0.09	-4	9	-13	15.7	14.5	1.25	14.2	14.6	-0.40
Jarvis Hayes	29	29	-0.15	0.65	-0.80	-0.06	-3	8	-11	15.4	14.4	0.96	15.7	14.1	1.63
DeShawn Stevenson	60	61	-0.26	0.76	-1.01	-0.05	-7	12	-19	14.7	14.7	-0.05	14.8	14.2	0.57

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.46,0.43,0.49,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.64,0.7,0.79,0.74,0.73,0.75,0.82,0.82,0.79,0.82,0.82,0.77,0.78,0.73,0.63,0.55,0.55,0.39,0.39,0.35,0.37,0.35,0.27,0.19,0.18,0.15,0.13,0.12,0.14,0.19,0.27,0.35,0.34,0.47,0.43,0.57,0.77,1
Game		Similarity Score
IND 99, SAS 100	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.64,0.68,0.66,0.73,0.73,0.75,0.78,0.74,0.73,0.74,0.8,0.72,0.64,0.63,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.45,0.45,0.52,0.45,0.38,0.26,0.2,0.15,0.06,0.13,0.1,0.17,0.09,0.18,0.19,0.28,0.38,0.54,0.68,0.42,1	91.5%
PHX 95, SAS 100	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.5,0.56,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.65,0.62,0.71,0.72,0.7,0.66,0.67,0.69,0.78,0.8,0.81,0.73,0.78,0.75,0.8,0.67,0.72,0.66,0.51,0.39,0.36,0.29,0.26,0.35,0.17,0.12,0.12,0.13,0.19,0.22,0.29,0.37,0.41,0.46,0.47,0.62,0.64,0.78,0.73,1	91.3%
NYK 86, BOS 90	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.48,0.49,0.56,0.58,0.49,0.59,0.51,0.45,0.47,0.49,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.73,0.84,0.83,0.82,0.84,0.85,0.82,0.77,0.75,0.67,0.6,0.66,0.58,0.61,0.52,0.45,0.45,0.38,0.27,0.29,0.32,0.3,0.15,0.1,0.17,0.42,0.36,0.29,0.33,0.32,0.36,0.77,0.91,1	90.3%