NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Charlotte Bobcats	91		Excitement	7.2 [363]		MVP	Ronald Murray (CHA): +15.6%
Orlando Magic	97		Comeback	1.6 [731]		LVP	Stephen Jackson (CHA): -27.8%

Charlotte Bobcats
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ronald Murray	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.02,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.18,0.23,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.11	0.05	-0.00	21	65%	0.29	3	-0.13	6	50%	-0.08
Boris Diaw	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.02,0.06,0.06	0.11	-0.03	0.02	13	75%	0.11	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Tyson Chandler	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.03	0.01	-0.06	3	33%	0.07	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Wallace	0.02	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02	0.03	-0.01	0.00	5	61%	0.04	1	-0.02	8	75%	0.02
Nazr Mohammed	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.01	0.00	5	45%	-0.00	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
D.J. Augustin	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.09	-0.02	-0.03	4	22%	-0.06	2	-0.02	1	0%	-0.02
Raymond Felton	-0.15	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.15	-0.05	-0.11	-0.00	6	50%	0.00	3	-0.15	0	0%	0.00
Stephen Jackson	-0.28	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.27,-0.28	-0.14	-0.11	0.02	14	36%	-0.18	4	-0.10	8	50%	-0.12

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Ryan Anderson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.08	0.05	-0.02	9	63%	0.15	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Dwight Howard	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.04	0.07	0.00	5	58%	0.15	1	-0.03	14	43%	-0.13
Jameer Nelson	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.04	0.06	0.01	10	62%	0.15	2	-0.06	6	67%	-0.07
Brandon Bass	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	-0.01	8	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
JJ Redick	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	150%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02	0.02	0.04	-0.00	0.02	12	58%	0.08	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.00
Jason Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.01	0.00	-0.00	3	50%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mickael Pietrus	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.02,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	-0.00	7	62%	0.11	2	-0.09	2	50%	-0.02
Rashard Lewis	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.15,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.14	-0.03	-0.01	15	31%	-0.07	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01
Matt Barnes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.12	-0.05	-0.00	7	25%	-0.07	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	29.0	2.6	29.9	16.0	25.5	2.6	43.7	149.3
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ORL +21.4%

ORL +14.2%

ORL +3.8%

ORL +11.9%

CHA -1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	CHA	ORL	NBA	CHA	ORL	NBA
this game	15.8	15.5	15.3	98.9	105.4	106.0
season	16.2	15.4		103.0	110.1
opponent	15.9	15.4		101.9	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
CHA	14.9	17.0	16.8	14.9	15.8
ORL	13.4	15.0	18.4	15.8	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Charlotte Bobcats
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Raymond Felton	47	45	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.05	8	-14	22	14.3	17.4	-3.12	15.0	15.9	-0.89
Nazr Mohammed	23	20	0.12	-0.62	0.74	-0.09	7	-13	20	15.3	16.0	-0.70	15.1	15.6	-0.42
Ronald Murray	64	65	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.25	0	-6	6	16.6	14.1	2.42	15.0	16.7	-1.68
Tyson Chandler	43	44	-0.41	-0.10	-0.31	-0.20	-7	1	-8	16.4	15.3	1.03	17.0	14.0	3.00
Boris Diaw	84	84	-0.45	-0.05	-0.40	-0.36	-3	-3	0	15.8	16.2	-0.46	15.8	12.4	3.40
D.J. Augustin	25	27	-0.46	-0.04	-0.43	-0.11	-12	6	-18	16.2	15.7	0.51	14.9	15.7	-0.89
Gerald Wallace	89	89	-0.57	0.07	-0.64	-0.28	-10	4	-14	16.0	9.7	6.37	15.1	26.3	-11.22
Stephen Jackson	85	86	-0.66	0.16	-0.83	-0.28	-13	7	-20	15.7	17.4	-1.73	15.7	13.0	2.65

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mickael Pietrus	59	61	0.61	-0.11	0.73	0.29	11	-5	16	16.6	13.5	3.06	15.6	16.2	-0.55
Ryan Anderson	38	38	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.06	13	-7	20	14.2	16.4	-2.12	16.1	15.7	0.39
Vince Carter	65	65	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.17	9	-3	12	15.7	15.0	0.73	16.1	15.3	0.80
Brandon Bass	27	26	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.03	10	-4	14	14.4	15.9	-1.57	16.3	15.7	0.62
Jameer Nelson	60	60	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.24	2	4	-2	15.8	14.9	0.93	15.8	15.8	0.02
Jason Williams	32	32	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	2	2	14.9	15.8	-0.93	15.8	15.8	-0.02
Dwight Howard	65	65	0.17	0.33	-0.16	0.23	-2	8	-10	15.9	14.4	1.57	15.8	16.0	-0.19
Rashard Lewis	64	66	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.30	-6	12	-18	16.7	12.7	4.02	15.3	17.2	-1.96
Matt Barnes	37	34	-0.03	0.53	-0.55	0.18	-7	13	-20	13.5	16.8	-3.29	16.3	15.6	0.70
JJ Redick	13	13	-0.09	0.59	-0.67	0.03	-4	10	-14	12.6	15.9	-3.33	15.9	15.8	0.11

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.5,0.45,0.46,0.45,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.64,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.52,0.48,0.44,0.39,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.45,0.54,0.52,0.59,0.63,0.72,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.69,0.71,0.78,0.75,0.79,0.9,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 89, PHX 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.99,1	93.4%
TOR 104, OKC 108	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.57,0.53,0.57,0.55,0.58,0.63,0.6,0.62,0.55,0.53,0.54,0.53,0.46,0.36,0.34,0.39,0.41,0.46,0.51,0.4,0.45,0.36,0.58,0.65,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.67,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.88,0.92,0.85,0.69,0.71,0.83,0.77,0.89,0.97,0.96,1	93.1%
GSW 83, BOS 84	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.68,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.89,0.95,0.91,1	92.7%