NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Golden State Warriors	83		Excitement	7.3 [395]		MVP	Gary Payton (BOS): +14.2%
Boston Celtics	84		Comeback	1.5 [961]		LVP	Derek Fisher (GSW): -47.9%

Golden State Warriors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Dunleavy	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	-0.01	0.04	0.01	9	64%	0.12	3	-0.09	4	75%	0.00
Clifford Robinson	0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	17	47%	0.06	1	-0.03	4	25%	-0.05
Zarko Cabarkapa	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.03	1	0%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Luis Flores	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.04	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Adonal Foyle	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.01	-0.02	0.00	5	60%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Speedy Claxton	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	9	33%	-0.05	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Calbert Cheaney	-0.06	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	0.02	-0.07	0.01	10	50%	-0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	-0.13	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.07,-0.07,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.15,-0.17,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.13,-0.13	-0.11	-0.02	0.00	16	39%	-0.09	2	-0.05	6	50%	-0.03
Derek Fisher	-0.48	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.15,-0.15,-0.48	-0.10	-0.39	-0.01	9	42%	-0.37	3	-0.11	6	67%	-0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gary Payton	0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14	0.14	0.10	0.06	0.02	7	93%	0.16	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Walter McCarty	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	0.02	0.06	-0.00	7	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marcus Banks	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.04	0.02	-0.00	5	67%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.02	0.02	-0.09	0.10	-0.01	20	40%	0.05	1	-0.03	7	71%	-0.00
Al Jefferson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	7	62%	0.03	2	-0.05	2	0%	-0.05
Mark Blount	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	9	44%	-0.00	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Raef LaFrentz	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.06	-0.06	0.01	-0.06	0.01	7	53%	-0.06	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.04
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.07	-0.01	-0.00	4	25%	-0.03	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jiri Welsch	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.12	-0.10	-0.03	-0.00	3	12%	-0.07	2	-0.06	2	50%	-0.01
Ricky Davis	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15	-0.15	-0.09	-0.06	-0.00	11	32%	-0.08	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	3.6	31.4	16.4	23.4	1.7	35.1	135.0
league avg	51.6	2.4	28.6	12.7	25.1	2.1	30.4	153.9

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +46.8%

BOS +0.6%

GSW -4.8%

BOS +1.7%

BOS +5.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	GSW	BOS	NBA	GSW	BOS	NBA
this game	15.6	16.0	15.5	92.2	91.3	104.0
season	15.0	14.4		102.3	104.7
opponent	16.0	15.2		104.1	104.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
GSW	14.0	16.4	16.5	15.8	15.6
BOS	16.0	15.0	15.6	17.7	16.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Golden State Warriors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Adonal Foyle	36	33	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.20	-4	3	-7	16.8	14.8	1.94	17.4	15.3	2.12
Luis Flores	10	11	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-3	5	16.6	15.5	1.11	14.8	16.2	-1.38
Zarko Cabarkapa	2	2	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	0.04	-2	1	-3	23.5	15.4	8.07	11.0	16.1	-5.14
Calbert Cheaney	77	78	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.21	-1	0	-1	15.1	18.8	-3.78	16.3	14.7	1.55
Derek Fisher	56	58	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.34	2	-3	5	16.0	14.9	1.12	16.0	16.1	-0.09
Clifford Robinson	76	79	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.53	6	-7	13	15.4	16.9	-1.56	16.5	13.0	3.53
Mike Dunleavy	72	73	-0.48	-0.02	-0.46	-0.39	-3	2	-5	15.4	16.3	-0.90	16.3	15.0	1.30
Speedy Claxton	53	54	-0.55	0.05	-0.61	-0.53	-1	0	-1	15.7	15.5	0.26	15.8	16.4	-0.57
Troy Murphy	68	72	-0.73	0.23	-0.96	-0.61	-4	3	-7	15.3	16.7	-1.42	14.9	20.2	-5.39

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Paul Pierce	72	70	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.37	6	-5	11	16.0	16.3	-0.34	15.4	16.2	-0.76
Ricky Davis	52	51	0.44	0.06	0.37	0.35	3	-2	5	16.1	16.0	0.10	16.2	14.9	1.26
Mark Blount	63	60	0.38	0.12	0.27	0.50	-4	5	-9	15.4	17.4	-2.07	15.5	15.8	-0.23
Gary Payton	67	63	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.48	-4	5	-9	15.7	16.9	-1.22	15.5	15.9	-0.40
Raef LaFrentz	52	52	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.39	-2	3	-5	16.8	15.0	1.87	14.6	17.0	-2.36
Al Jefferson	38	38	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.04	5	-4	9	16.7	15.6	1.11	16.6	14.9	1.77
Marcus Banks	25	27	0.14	0.36	-0.23	-0.01	5	-4	9	16.9	15.7	1.22	15.9	15.5	0.40
Walter McCarty	31	30	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.01	3	-2	5	15.2	16.5	-1.27	16.2	15.3	0.88
Jiri Welsch	39	38	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	1	-1	15.8	16.2	-0.32	14.8	16.2	-1.42
Tony Allen	21	21	-0.07	0.57	-0.64	0.14	-7	8	-15	16.5	15.9	0.64	16.3	15.4	0.94

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.53,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.54,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.63,0.66,0.67,0.61,0.67,0.68,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.73,0.68,0.81,0.84,0.82,0.87,0.88,0.82,0.71,0.78,0.8,0.89,0.95,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
PHI 89, PHX 95	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.44,0.49,0.47,0.45,0.49,0.55,0.55,0.6,0.65,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.53,0.44,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.51,0.57,0.67,0.64,0.64,0.52,0.59,0.62,0.69,0.71,0.79,0.85,0.9,0.88,0.91,0.77,0.83,0.76,0.91,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.99,1	93.9%
PHX 91, OKC 96	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.37,0.39,0.44,0.47,0.49,0.48,0.55,0.47,0.53,0.52,0.6,0.64,0.68,0.6,0.63,0.63,0.59,0.52,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.64,0.61,0.61,0.65,0.65,0.68,0.76,0.83,0.82,0.87,0.87,0.93,0.93,0.88,0.83,0.65,0.83,0.81,0.89,0.95,0.9,1	93.8%
ORL 111, MIL 116	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.54,0.5,0.5,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.51,0.51,0.58,0.51,0.54,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.56,0.46,0.51,0.54,0.58,0.67,0.56,0.58,0.69,0.69,0.58,0.61,0.67,0.62,0.59,0.48,0.56,0.74,0.71,0.74,0.78,0.83,0.89,0.94,0.87,0.85,0.78,0.9,0.99,1,1,1	93.6%