NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	83		Excitement	7.4 [344]		MVP	Michael Finley (SAS): +13.3%
Detroit Pistons	79		Comeback	2.3 [462]		LVP	Rasheed Wallace (DET): -37.4%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.07	0.06	-0.00	5	80%	0.13	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.12	0.04	0.07	-0.00	2	75%	0.12	0	0.00	4	100%	0.05
Matt Bonner	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.09	0.03	0.01	11	68%	0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.02	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.00	0.00	0	50%	0.00	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Kurt Thomas	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Hairston	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.07	-0.00	-0.01	11	36%	-0.03	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	-0.11	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.11,-0.11	-0.07	-0.04	-0.00	19	41%	-0.06	2	-0.05	6	67%	-0.01
Tony Parker	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.21,-0.06,-0.15	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	20	40%	0.01	3	-0.16	7	71%	0.06

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.00	9	65%	0.10	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.02
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.02	0.06	0.00	5	67%	0.13	2	-0.04	5	40%	-0.03
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	3	33%	-0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Iverson	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.04,0.08,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.18,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.01	28	50%	0.06	2	-0.06	6	83%	0.02
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	10	33%	-0.12	1	-0.01	4	50%	-0.02
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.16	-0.11	-0.08	-0.02	10	20%	-0.14	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.2,-0.2,-0.2,-0.11,-0.19,-0.19,-0.37	-0.37	-0.12	-0.26	-0.01	17	31%	-0.33	2	-0.04	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.3	3.6	30.2	20.4	27.2	2.8	36.1	145.7
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +48.5%

SAS +18.9%

DET -5.0%

DET -10.9%

DET -1.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	DET	NBA	SAS	DET	NBA
this game	16.6	17.3	15.5	98.8	91.9	106.4
season	16.4	16.9		106.6	104.9
opponent	15.7	15.7		106.2	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	16.7	16.9	18.1	16.6
DET	17.1	17.6	17.4	17.0	17.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Tony Parker	63	64	0.59	-0.09	0.68	0.36	8	-4	12	15.8	19.1	-3.33	17.4	17.0	0.38
Bruce Bowen	45	45	0.58	-0.08	0.67	0.32	9	-5	14	17.0	16.2	0.82	18.0	16.5	1.56
Tim Duncan	65	65	0.49	0.01	0.48	0.34	5	-1	6	16.3	17.5	-1.14	17.1	17.8	-0.64
George Hill	33	35	0.32	0.18	0.14	0.17	5	-1	6	18.0	15.7	2.26	16.0	18.1	-2.11
Michael Finley	49	49	0.25	0.25	0.00	0.31	-2	6	-8	15.8	17.7	-1.82	16.9	17.8	-0.84
Matt Bonner	65	66	0.22	0.28	-0.06	0.37	-5	9	-14	17.0	15.3	1.72	17.3	17.2	0.04
Kurt Thomas	25	26	0.12	0.38	-0.25	-0.02	5	-1	6	16.8	16.5	0.23	18.2	16.9	1.31
Fabricio Oberto	12	13	0.10	0.40	-0.31	0.04	2	2	0	16.9	16.5	0.37	18.2	17.1	1.03
Malik Hairston	6	7	0.01	0.49	-0.48	-0.02	1	3	-2	16.8	16.6	0.26	21.1	16.9	4.21
Roger Mason Jr.	57	60	-0.18	0.68	-0.87	0.05	-8	12	-20	16.8	16.3	0.50	16.8	18.5	-1.69

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Rodney Stuckey	54	53	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	-0.16	0	-4	4	16.9	17.9	-1.00	16.1	17.4	-1.26
Rasheed Wallace	62	60	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	-0.34	4	-8	12	16.6	19.0	-2.33	16.0	18.0	-1.91
Antonio McDyess	65	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.32	1	-5	6	17.7	15.9	1.82	16.9	15.5	1.45
Tayshaun Prince	66	65	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.32	1	-5	6	17.2	17.7	-0.55	16.2	18.0	-1.82
Jason Maxiell	44	42	-0.42	-0.08	-0.33	-0.07	-12	8	-20	17.8	16.7	1.10	17.3	15.9	1.33
Allen Iverson	80	78	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.39	-3	-1	-2	17.1	19.2	-2.03	16.5	17.5	-0.97
Richard Hamilton	59	57	-0.64	0.14	-0.78	-0.32	-11	7	-18	17.7	16.3	1.49	17.3	15.1	2.19

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
ATL 110, IND 104	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.42,0	91.9%
MIL 91, DET 85	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.16,0	91.7%
IND 88, DET 86	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.43,0.27,0	91.7%