NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Atlanta Hawks	110		Excitement	8.2 [207]		MVP	Joe Johnson (ATL): +36.4%
Indiana Pacers	104		Comeback	1.8 [505]		LVP	Danny Granger (IND): -22.4%

Atlanta Hawks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Joe Johnson	0.36	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.36	0.07	0.31	0.01	21	54%	0.38	1	-0.02	8	87%	0.01
Ronald Murray	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.03	-0.00	6	67%	0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marvin Williams	0.07	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07	-0.01	0.09	0.01	10	41%	0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Maurice Evans	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.01	-0.00	5	60%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Smith	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.02	-0.01	13	60%	0.18	5	-0.14	14	71%	-0.03
Zaza Pachulia	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.05	-0.01	0.00	5	69%	0.07	1	-0.04	3	33%	-0.02
Mike Bibby	-0.02	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	14	47%	0.04	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.02
Al Horford	-0.02	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.02	8	55%	0.01	1	-0.04	6	67%	-0.02

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0.05,0.01,0.06,0.11,0.07,0.1,0.27,0.27	0.27	0.09	0.19	0.01	14	63%	0.31	2	-0.04	7	71%	0.01
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.17	0.07	0.11	0.00	7	75%	0.19	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.02
Travis Diener	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,0.06,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.15	0.07	0.08	0.00	5	80%	0.15	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rasho Nesterovic	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	0.01	0.00	7	57%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	-0.00	7	62%	0.04	2	-0.05	2	100%	0.02
Marquis Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	-0.02	-0.00	10	52%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	29%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.13,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.15,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18,-0.18	-0.18	-0.11	-0.08	0.00	9	17%	-0.15	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0.02,-0.01,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.08,-0.05,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.22	-0.22	-0.02	-0.20	0.01	18	48%	-0.18	2	-0.05	16	75%	-0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.5	2.6	26.1	15.7	33.2	2.5	31.4	136.0
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

ATL +65.5%

IND -13.3%

ATL +0.9%

IND -4.5%

ATL +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ATL	IND	NBA	ATL	IND	NBA
this game	15.5	14.3	15.5	113.4	108.3	106.4
season	15.8	14.1		106.7	106.5
opponent	15.3	16.1		107.7	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
ATL	16.2	16.0	12.3	18.5	15.5
IND	13.1	13.5	14.4	16.6	14.3

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Atlanta Hawks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Johnson	87	85	0.55	-0.05	0.59	0.25	10	-4	14	15.7	14.6	1.06	14.2	15.2	-1.01
Josh Smith	84	82	0.48	0.02	0.45	0.33	5	1	4	15.4	16.3	-0.88	14.4	13.8	0.59
Al Horford	74	74	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.31	4	2	2	15.6	15.5	0.09	13.6	16.8	-3.22
Marvin Williams	61	59	0.43	0.07	0.36	0.34	3	3	0	15.7	15.3	0.38	14.1	14.5	-0.40
Mike Bibby	85	87	0.39	0.11	0.28	0.27	4	2	2	15.5	16.1	-0.61	13.6	20.6	-6.91
Maurice Evans	40	40	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.06	1	5	-4	14.7	16.1	-1.44	16.0	13.1	2.97
Ronald Murray	27	25	0.07	0.43	-0.35	0.07	0	6	-6	16.2	15.3	0.89	15.8	13.7	2.09
Zaza Pachulia	27	28	0.06	0.44	-0.37	-0.03	3	3	0	16.0	15.4	0.68	14.8	14.1	0.75

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Diener	25	27	0.03	-0.53	0.55	-0.12	5	-11	16	15.5	13.9	1.66	15.8	15.4	0.37
Roy Hibbert	29	28	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-7	8	12.1	15.3	-3.18	15.2	15.7	-0.47
Rasho Nesterovic	21	21	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.07	-2	-4	2	15.8	13.9	1.94	13.5	16.1	-2.58
T.J. Ford	22	22	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	0.10	-10	4	-14	15.3	14.0	1.33	14.3	15.9	-1.65
Danny Granger	81	80	-0.21	-0.29	0.08	-0.33	4	-10	14	14.3	14.1	0.19	15.9	13.7	2.23
Brandon Rush	53	53	-0.29	-0.21	-0.09	-0.06	-8	2	-10	16.2	12.0	4.19	15.2	16.0	-0.83
Marquis Daniels	66	66	-0.37	-0.13	-0.24	-0.37	0	-6	6	13.4	16.2	-2.82	15.6	15.4	0.23
Jarrett Jack	64	64	-0.40	-0.10	-0.29	-0.31	-3	-3	0	13.3	16.3	-3.08	16.1	14.5	1.61
Troy Murphy	67	69	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.26	-7	1	-8	13.9	15.1	-1.21	15.3	16.2	-0.89
Jeff Foster	52	55	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.18	-10	4	-14	14.8	13.7	1.08	16.3	14.6	1.64

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.52,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.52,0.59,0.59,0.63,0.53,0.47,0.44,0.48,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.51,0.46,0.42,0.4,0.42,0.36,0.45,0.39,0.48,0.45,0.31,0.27,0.33,0.4,0.42,0.38,0.29,0.33,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.27,0.19,0.15,0.22,0.42,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 100, GSW 99	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.6,0.53,0.55,0.59,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.52,0.49,0.51,0.51,0.56,0.51,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.54,0.54,0.51,0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.53,0.45,0.42,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.27,0.21,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.38,0.33,0.21,0.24,0.27,0.19,0.11,0.22,0.42,0	93.1%
LAL 80, SAS 75	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.43,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.16,0	91.9%
SAS 83, DET 79	0.5,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.62,0.59,0.66,0.68,0.67,0.61,0.6,0.6,0.58,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.55,0.56,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.52,0.44,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.35,0.42,0.36,0.39,0.42,0.45,0.35,0.31,0.3,0.26,0.29,0.26,0.3,0.38,0.28,0.32,0.26,0.19,0.1,0.19,0.29,0.32,0.42,0	91.9%