NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	80		Excitement	8.0 [142]		MVP	Steve Kerr (SAS): +11.7%
San Antonio Spurs	75		Comeback	2.2 [139]		LVP	Tim Duncan (SAS): -37.7%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Shaquille O'Neal	0.08	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.1,0.06,0.08,0.08	-0.02	0.07	-0.03	18	59%	0.15	4	-0.07	8	50%	-0.04
Eddie Jones	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	-0.00	0.03	-0.02	18	49%	0.04	0	0.00	7	43%	-0.09
Derek Harper	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.02	-0.00	-0.01	0.00	9	50%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Corie Blount	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Sean Rooks	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	1	25%	-0.03	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Derek Fisher	-0.11	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.10	-0.02	-0.01	5	0%	-0.08	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Robert Horry	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.15,-0.12	-0.08	-0.06	-0.01	5	33%	-0.06	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.03
Kobe Bryant	-0.14	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.1,-0.15,-0.15,-0.14	-0.07	-0.07	-0.00	19	47%	0.01	4	-0.15	2	100%	0.01
Elden Campbell	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15	-0.10	-0.05	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	4	-0.13	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Steve Kerr	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.07	0.03	-0.02	6	83%	0.16	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Kersey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.01	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Mario Elie	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.03	-0.00	8	53%	-0.01	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.08
Sean Elliott	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.01	12	46%	0.08	2	-0.10	0	0%	0.00
Gerard King	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	2	0%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Avery Johnson	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.05	-0.01	0.00	9	45%	0.01	2	-0.07	2	50%	-0.02
Jaren Jackson	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.08	-0.02	-0.01	4	0%	-0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
David Robinson	0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.14	-0.14	-0.07	-0.06	-0.00	11	42%	-0.08	2	-0.06	4	75%	-0.04
Tim Duncan	0,0,0,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.06,-0.07,-0.05,-0.1,-0.1,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.2,-0.18,-0.18,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.29,-0.22,-0.29,-0.29,-0.38	-0.38	-0.23	-0.18	-0.03	24	37%	-0.26	5	-0.12	9	56%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.1	1.8	25.1	17.4	25.5	2.6	35.1	130.6
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +7.0%

LAL +9.4%

LAL +39.2%

SAS -1.3%

SAS -4.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.1	16.6	15.8	89.9	86.2	99.6
season	14.9	15.9		104.7	101.1
opponent	15.9	15.8		92.7	102.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.9	16.5	14.1	19.7	16.1
SAS	15.7	16.2	16.6	18.2	16.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kobe Bryant	77	75	0.57	-0.07	0.63	0.30	9	-4	13	16.2	15.9	0.25	16.1	19.6	-3.46
Shaquille O'Neal	75	75	0.53	-0.03	0.55	0.38	5	0	5	16.5	14.1	2.45	16.0	20.6	-4.62
Eddie Jones	78	78	0.51	-0.01	0.52	0.36	5	0	5	16.4	14.5	1.81	16.8	15.1	1.66
Robert Horry	67	66	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.35	1	4	-3	16.2	16.0	0.24	15.8	19.1	-3.35
Derek Fisher	43	43	0.31	0.19	0.13	-0.01	11	-6	17	15.1	17.1	-1.93	15.0	18.1	-3.07
Derek Harper	46	44	0.19	0.31	-0.13	0.36	-6	11	-17	17.1	15.1	1.93	18.1	15.0	3.07
Sean Rooks	14	14	0.15	0.35	-0.19	-0.05	7	-2	9	16.9	16.0	0.86	17.1	16.5	0.56
Corie Blount	16	15	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.03	0	5	-5	14.1	16.6	-2.45	19.6	16.0	3.63
Elden Campbell	29	25	-0.17	0.67	-0.83	0.04	-7	12	-19	15.1	16.6	-1.58	19.5	15.4	4.04

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jerome Kersey	26	30	0.16	-0.66	0.82	-0.04	7	-12	19	18.5	15.8	2.66	15.2	16.6	-1.41
Antonio Daniels	12	12	0.14	-0.64	0.79	-0.03	6	-11	17	14.7	16.9	-2.14	15.4	16.2	-0.83
Gerard King	5	5	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.02	1	-6	7	14.6	16.7	-2.12	15.4	16.2	-0.78
Steve Kerr	42	42	-0.10	-0.40	0.31	-0.13	1	-6	7	18.1	15.2	2.94	15.2	16.9	-1.70
Jaren Jackson	33	35	-0.14	-0.36	0.23	0.01	-5	0	-5	15.0	17.6	-2.53	15.2	16.7	-1.54
Mario Elie	43	45	-0.20	-0.30	0.10	-0.32	4	-9	13	18.0	15.2	2.86	17.3	15.0	2.33
Avery Johnson	68	70	-0.53	0.03	-0.56	-0.24	-10	5	-15	16.3	17.6	-1.32	16.3	15.6	0.71
Tim Duncan	76	76	-0.58	0.08	-0.65	-0.28	-10	5	-15	16.6	16.5	0.16	16.2	16.0	0.16
David Robinson	67	67	-0.60	0.10	-0.69	-0.36	-8	3	-11	16.0	18.6	-2.60	16.6	14.8	1.81
Sean Elliott	63	63	-0.68	0.18	-0.85	-0.35	-11	6	-17	16.1	18.0	-1.88	16.4	15.5	0.90

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.52,0.54,0.58,0.59,0.53,0.55,0.53,0.51,0.4,0.52,0.53,0.59,0.64,0.65,0.63,0.61,0.61,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.49,0.5,0.44,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.3,0.32,0.25,0.31,0.27,0.37,0.4,0.38,0.34,0.29,0.43,0.27,0.26,0.29,0.17,0.25,0.29,0.24,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 103, MIN 100	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.59,0.62,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.62,0.61,0.55,0.45,0.45,0.46,0.49,0.56,0.55,0.6,0.58,0.56,0.52,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.44,0.45,0.38,0.46,0.45,0.39,0.29,0.29,0.35,0.35,0.37,0.37,0.4,0.46,0.3,0.3,0.24,0.27,0.26,0.24,0.28,0.32,0.28,0.1,0.09,0	93.6%
ATL 114, PHI 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.54,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.57,0.63,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.62,0.64,0.71,0.69,0.63,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.56,0.61,0.5,0.43,0.37,0.39,0.36,0.33,0.18,0.29,0.31,0.44,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.43,0.34,0.33,0.32,0.17,0.24,0.28,0.25,0.22,0.2,0.01,0	92.8%
DAL 91, DEN 88	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.6,0.55,0.51,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.44,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.43,0.44,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.48,0.36,0.27,0.32,0.4,0.41,0.41,0.41,0.44,0.34,0.43,0.29,0.38,0.32,0.21,0.12,0.13,0.07,0.15,0.23,0.09,0	92.4%