NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	91		Excitement	7.3 [336]		MVP	John Salmons (MIL): +25.3%
Detroit Pistons	85		Comeback	2.8 [457]		LVP	Brandon Jennings (MIL): -19.9%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
John Salmons	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.1,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.25	0.04	0.19	-0.02	16	51%	0.28	1	-0.03	5	80%	0.00
Ersan Ilyasova	0.23	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23	0.14	0.11	0.02	6	89%	0.23	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.02
Jerry Stackhouse	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.01	-0.00	8	60%	0.06	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Andrew Bogut	0.02	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.05,-0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.05	0.05	-0.02	14	43%	0.06	2	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luke Ridnour	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.00	0.01	-0.00	6	43%	0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Carlos Delfino	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0,0,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0,-0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01	0.05	-0.03	0.03	10	80%	0.14	4	-0.14	0	0%	0.00
Kurt Thomas	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Charlie Bell	-0.08	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.02	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Luc Mbah a Moute	-0.10	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.07	-0.03	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Brandon Jennings	-0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.14,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.13,-0.13,-0.16,-0.1,-0.14,-0.21,-0.21,-0.2	-0.14	-0.06	-0.00	13	29%	-0.14	2	-0.06	9	89%	0.05

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.06	0.05	0.01	10	60%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Jerebko	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.06	-0.01	0.02	7	86%	0.09	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Will Bynum	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	0.00	4	50%	0.04	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.08,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.18,0.16,0.08,-0.01	-0.01	0.09	-0.08	0.01	20	58%	0.12	2	-0.13	10	100%	0.06
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.13,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.08	-0.08	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	10	54%	0.05	5	-0.13	4	75%	-0.01
Ben Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.08	-0.03	-0.00	3	37%	-0.02	3	-0.08	2	50%	-0.02
Ben Gordon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.06	-0.05	0.00	6	29%	-0.09	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Charlie Villanueva	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.07	-0.08	-0.01	4	25%	-0.06	2	-0.07	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.2	2.5	32.5	17.4	25.4	1.8	34.6	140.4
league avg	26.2	2.4	30.3	16.5	27.2	2.4	33.7	141.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MIL +21.7%

MIL +3.8%

MIL +14.1%

MIL +8.6%

MIL +1.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	DET	NBA	MIL	DET	NBA
this game	16.5	15.5	15.3	101.1	94.4	106.0
season	15.5	16.8		103.3	104.0
opponent	15.2	15.5		109.8	101.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	18.7	16.5	14.5	16.7	16.5
DET	14.9	14.8	16.9	15.3	15.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
John Salmons	63	61	0.67	-0.17	0.85	0.23	15	-9	24	16.0	17.9	-1.94	16.3	13.6	2.72
Ersan Ilyasova	61	61	0.65	-0.15	0.81	0.21	15	-9	24	16.0	17.6	-1.55	15.9	14.5	1.45
Andrew Bogut	68	68	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.32	5	1	4	15.9	18.4	-2.42	15.2	16.3	-1.13
Brandon Jennings	62	62	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.45	-4	10	-14	16.1	17.5	-1.46	15.1	16.4	-1.29
Carlos Delfino	57	58	0.28	0.22	0.06	0.28	0	6	-6	16.8	16.0	0.79	14.9	16.5	-1.65
Jerry Stackhouse	36	36	0.23	0.27	-0.04	-0.01	8	-2	10	16.2	16.8	-0.56	16.1	15.1	0.98
Luke Ridnour	28	28	0.17	0.33	-0.16	-0.15	11	-5	16	17.5	16.1	1.46	16.4	15.1	1.29
Kurt Thomas	22	22	0.04	0.46	-0.43	0.01	1	5	-4	18.4	15.9	2.42	16.3	15.2	1.13
Charlie Bell	24	24	-0.16	0.66	-0.82	0.11	-9	15	-24	17.9	16.0	1.83	13.6	16.1	-2.51
Luc Mbah a Moute	30	32	-0.17	0.67	-0.85	0.15	-11	17	-28	17.1	16.3	0.80	13.9	16.3	-2.42

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jonas Jerebko	53	52	-0.16	-0.34	0.17	-0.22	2	-8	10	15.0	16.1	-1.09	16.6	16.5	0.10
Rodney Stuckey	57	56	-0.19	-0.31	0.12	-0.40	7	-13	20	14.9	16.5	-1.61	16.3	16.9	-0.56
Charlie Villanueva	32	34	-0.24	-0.26	0.03	-0.12	-4	-2	-2	15.9	15.2	0.68	16.6	16.5	0.04
Ben Wallace	62	61	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	-0.42	6	-12	18	14.9	16.7	-1.81	16.3	17.0	-0.69
Jason Maxiell	28	29	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	0.10	-12	6	-18	16.7	14.9	1.81	17.0	16.3	0.69
Will Bynum	33	34	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.07	-13	7	-20	16.5	14.9	1.61	16.9	16.3	0.56
Richard Hamilton	70	69	-0.31	-0.19	-0.13	-0.28	-1	-5	4	14.9	17.3	-2.36	16.1	18.0	-1.98
Ben Gordon	35	36	-0.36	-0.14	-0.21	-0.00	-12	6	-18	16.4	14.9	1.53	16.9	16.3	0.69
Tayshaun Prince	80	79	-0.43	-0.07	-0.36	-0.34	-3	-3	0	15.6	14.1	1.54	16.7	15.3	1.44

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.59,0.58,0.57,0.63,0.65,0.67,0.72,0.69,0.65,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.53,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.42,0.39,0.41,0.36,0.36,0.33,0.42,0.29,0.37,0.31,0.42,0.39,0.45,0.41,0.35,0.27,0.23,0.18,0.22,0.19,0.19,0.33,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.22,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.16,0
Game		Similarity Score
LAL 98, MIA 83	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.36,0.24,0.12,0.05,0.1,0.01,0,0	91.8%
NJN 86, LAC 85	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.58,0.6,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.69,0.64,0.64,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.56,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.56,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.35,0.4,0.45,0.42,0.39,0.44,0.45,0.41,0.31,0.2,0.18,0.19,0.22,0.21,0.2,0.23,0.26,0.15,0.17,0.2,0.36,0.06,0.13,0	91.8%
GSW 97, NOK 89	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.65,0.69,0.71,0.7,0.65,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.39,0.39,0.36,0.31,0.28,0.27,0.42,0.38,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.32,0.35,0.38,0.41,0.24,0.2,0.13,0.06,0.09,0.12,0.2,0.19,0.36,0.29,0.05,0.2,0.29,0.06,0.01,0	91.8%