NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	98		Excitement	5.9 [615]		MVP	Devean George (LAL): +19.3%
Miami Heat	83		Comeback	3.1 [137]		LVP	Lamar Odom (MIA): -13.2%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Devean George	0.19	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.12,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.07	0.11	-0.01	13	63%	0.22	1	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.18	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.21,0.21,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.09	0.08	-0.02	9	82%	0.21	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.02
Shaquille O'Neal	0.08	0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,0.01,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.08,0.08	0.05	0.04	0.02	18	61%	0.13	2	-0.06	5	20%	-0.02
Horace Grant	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.05	-0.00	0.03	6	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rick Fox	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Slava Medvedenko	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,0,0,0,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.06	0.00	-0.01	6	43%	-0.00	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Luke Walton	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kareem Rush	-0.07	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.06	-0.01	-0.01	7	29%	-0.07	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Gary Payton	-0.08	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08	-0.07	-0.00	0.00	19	40%	-0.06	1	-0.01	4	75%	0.00

Miami Heat
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Udonis Haslem	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.06	0.00	4	80%	0.11	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Dwyane Wade	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.03	-0.03	12	61%	0.10	1	-0.01	7	71%	-0.00
Rafer Alston	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,0,0,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.07	-0.02	0.06	-0.03	9	50%	0.11	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Eddie Jones	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.03	-0.00	-0.01	10	54%	0.04	0	0.00	4	75%	-0.00
Brian Grant	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	-0.01	0.01	7	57%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Malik Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	9	45%	-0.00	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.01
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11	-0.11	-0.13	-0.01	-0.02	7	25%	-0.05	3	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Lamar Odom	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13	-0.13	-0.09	-0.06	-0.01	14	45%	-0.01	4	-0.13	1	100%	0.01

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.8	2.7	30.1	15.8	26.0	0.3	29.3	130.1
league avg	47.8	2.4	27.9	14.3	24.8	2.1	29.8	150.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

LAL +14.7%

MIA -7.3%

LAL +22.7%

LAL +14.9%

LAL +5.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	MIA	NBA	LAL	MIA	NBA
this game	17.8	17.7	15.7	121.0	102.5	100.5
season	15.4	16.2		102.8	99.3
opponent	15.9	15.6		98.8	99.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	14.5	16.4	21.2	19.9	17.8
MIA	19.1	17.9	17.8	16.1	17.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Horace Grant	46	45	0.77	-0.27	1.05	-0.05	28	-13	41	17.9	17.7	0.25	18.6	16.7	1.91
Derek Fisher	46	45	0.65	-0.15	0.81	-0.05	24	-9	33	17.7	18.0	-0.35	17.6	17.9	-0.24
Shaquille O'Neal	58	60	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.13	11	4	7	17.0	19.8	-2.79	17.0	19.9	-2.87
Devean George	61	61	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.18	19	-4	23	18.2	16.7	1.50	17.5	18.3	-0.83
Kareem Rush	48	49	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.30	-4	19	-23	18.2	17.2	0.99	16.7	19.3	-2.57
Gary Payton	68	68	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.13	10	5	5	17.6	18.8	-1.12	18.5	13.5	4.99
Rick Fox	20	20	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.24	-4	19	-23	16.7	18.2	-1.50	18.3	17.5	0.83
Luke Walton	22	21	-0.03	0.53	-0.56	-0.12	3	12	-9	20.0	17.0	3.05	17.9	17.7	0.17
Slava Medvedenko	36	36	-0.19	0.69	-0.89	0.16	-12	27	-39	17.6	18.0	-0.39	17.8	17.6	0.19

Miami Heat
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Udonis Haslem	25	25	0.05	-0.55	0.60	-0.04	3	-18	21	18.2	17.5	0.74	20.3	16.7	3.55
Caron Butler	46	47	0.01	-0.51	0.52	-0.08	3	-18	21	18.3	17.0	1.33	16.0	20.3	-4.25
Brian Grant	32	33	-0.17	-0.33	0.15	-0.35	6	-21	27	15.7	19.0	-3.27	18.1	17.7	0.39
Dwyane Wade	71	70	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.08	-6	-9	3	17.2	21.7	-4.53	18.5	13.5	4.95
Malik Allen	49	48	-0.33	-0.17	-0.15	0.29	-21	6	-27	19.0	15.7	3.27	17.7	18.1	-0.39
Lamar Odom	72	72	-0.49	-0.01	-0.48	-0.05	-15	0	-15	17.9	16.4	1.44	18.2	15.1	3.06
Rafer Alston	43	43	-0.63	0.13	-0.75	0.08	-24	9	-33	17.7	17.8	-0.12	17.4	18.3	-0.82
Eddie Jones	67	67	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.07	-21	6	-27	17.6	18.4	-0.76	17.3	20.1	-2.80

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.62,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.73,0.75,0.73,0.68,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.44,0.46,0.44,0.42,0.4,0.39,0.41,0.33,0.34,0.4,0.36,0.33,0.39,0.32,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.26,0.25,0.22,0.26,0.21,0.24,0.19,0.36,0.24,0.12,0.05,0.1,0.01,0,0
Game		Similarity Score
CLE 100, NYK 90	0.5,0.49,0.55,0.61,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.7,0.69,0.69,0.62,0.63,0.56,0.51,0.49,0.4,0.4,0.44,0.53,0.44,0.51,0.39,0.41,0.37,0.4,0.34,0.39,0.33,0.33,0.39,0.48,0.41,0.41,0.3,0.42,0.3,0.38,0.15,0.11,0.19,0.11,0.19,0.1,0.05,0.01,0,0,0	93.6%
PHI 114, HOU 105	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.55,0.62,0.65,0.66,0.66,0.64,0.58,0.5,0.53,0.53,0.5,0.55,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.42,0.44,0.47,0.46,0.38,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.45,0.38,0.41,0.34,0.29,0.26,0.21,0.19,0.18,0.22,0.17,0.19,0.26,0.2,0.03,0.07,0.11,0,0,0	93.0%
CLE 103, IND 93	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.53,0.56,0.57,0.59,0.64,0.71,0.67,0.65,0.68,0.65,0.6,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.44,0.36,0.31,0.39,0.39,0.33,0.42,0.42,0.39,0.36,0.45,0.48,0.38,0.41,0.44,0.3,0.25,0.22,0.19,0.21,0.27,0.12,0.14,0.08,0.03,0,0,0,0,0	92.8%