NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Indiana Pacers	88		Excitement	7.3 [196]		MVP	Antonio Davis (IND): +21.6%
Detroit Pistons	86		Comeback	2.2 [201]		LVP	Grant Hill (DET): -51.2%

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Antonio Davis	0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.22,0.22	0.02	0.18	-0.01	11	63%	0.28	2	-0.07	5	100%	0.04
Reggie Miller	0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.17,0.27,0.27,0.24,0.21,0.21,0.21	0.15	0.08	0.02	14	77%	0.24	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.01
Sam Perkins	0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17	0.12	0.04	-0.00	5	110%	0.17	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jalen Rose	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.03	0.03	0.01	8	56%	0.05	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Dale Davis	0.03	0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.02	0.01	-0.01	4	60%	0.03	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Al Harrington	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	5	20%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Chris Mullin	-0.10	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.09	-0.02	-0.01	6	29%	-0.06	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Travis Best	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.15	-0.07	-0.08	0.00	4	25%	-0.07	2	-0.08	0	0%	0.00
Rik Smits	-0.17	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.14,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.13,-0.17,-0.17	-0.13	-0.04	-0.00	18	31%	-0.17	0	0.00	6	83%	-0.02

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Lindsey Hunter	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0,0,0.2,0.2,0.2	0.20	0.03	0.16	-0.01	5	60%	0.20	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bison Dele	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.10	0.10	0.02	12	73%	0.21	1	-0.03	2	50%	-0.02
Eric Montross	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.01	0.01	-0.00	4	56%	0.03	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Don Reid	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.03	0.00	0.01	5	60%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jud Buechler	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.02	-0.00	8	37%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerome Williams	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	6	43%	-0.04	0	0.00	2	100%	0.02
Joe Dumars	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1	-0.10	-0.02	-0.08	-0.00	15	40%	-0.10	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jerry Stackhouse	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.05,-0.09,-0.13,-0.16,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19	-0.19	-0.11	-0.07	0.00	7	44%	-0.05	4	-0.13	4	50%	-0.03
Grant Hill	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,-0.06,-0.51	-0.51	-0.13	-0.42	-0.04	17	39%	-0.51	1	-0.01	12	67%	-0.21

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	24.7	2.5	27.6	17.3	23.4	1.8	37.2	134.5
league avg	26.9	3.0	42.0	16.0	26.3	2.2	45.7	163.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +39.5%

IND +32.5%

DET -16.5%

DET -8.5%

IND +2.9%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	IND	DET	NBA	IND	DET	NBA
this game	17.5	17.2	15.8	106.0	103.6	99.6
season	16.4	16.6		105.4	101.4
opponent	16.1	16.0		97.9	101.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
IND	16.3	17.6	18.3	18.2	17.5
DET	15.7	16.8	19.6	16.9	17.2

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Travis Best	46	46	0.50	0.00	0.49	0.35	5	-3	8	17.2	18.0	-0.78	16.8	17.6	-0.74
Sam Perkins	35	35	0.37	0.13	0.25	0.20	6	-4	10	18.0	17.2	0.74	17.6	16.9	0.72
Jalen Rose	62	61	0.36	0.14	0.22	0.45	-3	5	-8	17.9	16.6	1.30	17.6	16.0	1.64
Antonio Davis	42	41	0.33	0.17	0.15	0.21	4	-2	6	16.6	18.5	-1.82	16.6	17.7	-1.18
Reggie Miller	65	66	0.30	0.20	0.09	0.38	-3	5	-8	18.1	15.6	2.47	17.2	17.2	-0.02
Dale Davis	42	41	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.29	-2	4	-6	17.6	17.5	0.16	17.5	16.9	0.61
Chris Mullin	52	53	0.19	0.31	-0.12	0.07	4	-2	6	17.7	17.3	0.35	17.3	17.0	0.30
Al Harrington	24	23	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.07	3	-1	4	15.6	18.3	-2.70	16.4	17.4	-1.00
Rik Smits	47	49	0.07	0.43	-0.36	0.19	-4	6	-10	18.0	17.0	0.96	17.1	17.2	-0.13

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Eric Montross	27	26	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	0.02	-5	3	-8	16.3	17.6	-1.22	16.0	18.2	-2.19
Don Reid	43	40	-0.13	-0.37	0.24	-0.19	2	-4	6	17.5	16.8	0.74	19.0	16.1	2.91
Jerome Williams	38	39	-0.16	-0.34	0.18	0.08	-8	6	-14	16.5	17.7	-1.26	16.8	18.2	-1.46
Jerry Stackhouse	37	36	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	0.01	-8	6	-14	17.4	17.0	0.40	15.9	18.8	-2.82
Grant Hill	64	63	-0.29	-0.21	-0.08	-0.43	5	-7	12	16.7	18.7	-2.05	17.9	16.5	1.37
Lindsey Hunter	56	56	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.41	3	-5	8	18.0	15.4	2.54	18.2	16.1	2.18
Bison Dele	56	57	-0.34	-0.16	-0.18	-0.52	6	-8	14	18.0	15.4	2.59	18.3	15.9	2.41
Joe Dumars	60	61	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.48	4	-6	10	16.7	18.3	-1.59	17.6	17.3	0.37
Jud Buechler	34	37	-0.55	0.05	-0.60	-0.28	-9	7	-16	16.8	17.4	-0.61	16.4	18.5	-2.10

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.65,0.66,0.6,0.63,0.66,0.64,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.67,0.63,0.56,0.59,0.61,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.43,0.45,0.36,0.33,0.36,0.38,0.42,0.44,0.41,0.4,0.36,0.34,0.26,0.25,0.29,0.28,0.26,0.34,0.17,0.14,0.1,0.43,0.27,0
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 89, VAN 83	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.52,0.57,0.58,0.59,0.62,0.63,0.65,0.62,0.66,0.66,0.68,0.62,0.66,0.64,0.67,0.61,0.58,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.5,0.45,0.37,0.42,0.52,0.4,0.42,0.45,0.45,0.41,0.37,0.32,0.22,0.19,0.18,0.2,0.15,0.31,0.19,0.27,0.15,0.29,0.31,0.16,0	92.9%
DET 110, IND 104	0.5,0.51,0.54,0.52,0.51,0.57,0.54,0.63,0.63,0.6,0.63,0.65,0.68,0.68,0.66,0.62,0.6,0.67,0.63,0.59,0.68,0.71,0.69,0.61,0.46,0.49,0.41,0.45,0.48,0.45,0.39,0.35,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.37,0.28,0.3,0.22,0.25,0.28,0.32,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.31,0.04,0.09,0.29,0	92.5%
MEM 107, SAS 99	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.5,0.49,0.53,0.53,0.61,0.59,0.63,0.62,0.62,0.62,0.68,0.64,0.7,0.71,0.77,0.71,0.72,0.66,0.64,0.64,0.59,0.54,0.5,0.4,0.37,0.31,0.36,0.45,0.55,0.48,0.38,0.48,0.43,0.36,0.34,0.34,0.29,0.2,0.19,0.17,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.21,0.22,0.18,0	92.1%