NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

San Antonio Spurs	92		Excitement	7.5 [323]		MVP	Manu Ginobili (SAS): +30.2%
Chicago Bulls	87		Comeback	2.0 [593]		LVP	Derrick Rose (CHI): -29.8%

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Manu Ginobili	0.30	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.23,0.3	0.11	0.18	-0.01	11	64%	0.31	1	-0.01	11	82%	0.02
Michael Finley	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.04	0.08	-0.00	9	61%	0.14	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0.04	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.03,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.19,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	-0.00	16	49%	0.04	0	0.00	5	80%	0.03
Kurt Thomas	0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.00	0.01	-0.01	3	67%	0.04	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	-0.00	0.00	12	48%	0.03	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Fabricio Oberto	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.00	0.00	-0.02	1	100%	0.02	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	-0.01	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.01,-0.01	-0.04	0.03	0.00	20	50%	0.16	4	-0.18	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	-0.00	-0.01	2	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	3	0%	-0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.01	-0.01	8	22%	-0.07	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Chicago Bulls
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Drew Gooden	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.26,0.26,0.26,0.27	0.27	0.09	0.19	0.01	6	73%	0.27	0	0.00	3	100%	0.02
Ben Gordon	0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.13,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.06	-0.01	-0.00	15	65%	0.14	3	-0.09	1	100%	0.01
Andres Nocioni	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.16,0.11,0.11,0.17,0.23,0.23,0.16,0.01,0.04	0.04	0.13	-0.08	0.01	8	89%	0.25	2	-0.21	3	100%	0.02
Luol Deng	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.04	-0.01	12	50%	-0.01	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Thabo Sefolosha	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	0.01	-0.00	3	33%	0.00	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Joakim Noah	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	3	29%	-0.01	1	-0.03	1	0%	-0.01
Tyrus Thomas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.04	-0.04	0.01	8	39%	-0.05	1	-0.04	2	50%	-0.01
Kirk Hinrich	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14	-0.14	-0.09	-0.04	0.01	9	22%	-0.10	1	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Derrick Rose	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.02,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.18,-0.18,-0.26,-0.26,-0.3	-0.30	-0.12	-0.20	-0.02	21	29%	-0.30	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	21.0	1.8	27.1	15.4	23.4	1.7	41.0	131.4
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +33.0%

SAS +5.9%

CHI -14.8%

SAS +25.5%

SAS +0.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAS	CHI	NBA	SAS	CHI	NBA
this game	16.7	15.8	15.5	103.4	98.9	106.4
season	16.4	14.8		106.6	106.3
opponent	15.7	15.7		107.2	103.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAS	14.9	16.8	18.0	17.2	16.7
CHI	17.8	14.5	15.4	15.5	15.8

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Bruce Bowen	35	34	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.54	2	3	-1	19.0	15.3	3.74	14.1	16.9	-2.80
Tim Duncan	69	67	0.53	-0.03	0.56	0.26	9	-4	13	17.0	15.9	1.07	15.8	15.8	-0.00
Manu Ginobili	57	58	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.35	5	0	5	16.3	17.5	-1.15	16.0	15.5	0.52
Tony Parker	71	70	0.36	0.14	0.21	0.24	4	1	3	16.0	19.6	-3.54	15.7	16.3	-0.66
Michael Finley	64	63	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.24	0	5	-5	15.9	18.8	-2.93	15.8	15.8	-0.05
Matt Bonner	51	51	0.17	0.33	-0.17	-0.19	12	-7	19	17.5	15.7	1.87	16.7	14.5	2.23
George Hill	19	18	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.12	-1	6	-7	18.6	16.2	2.35	16.3	15.7	0.66
Kurt Thomas	22	22	0.02	0.48	-0.45	0.08	-2	7	-9	15.2	17.2	-2.00	15.6	15.9	-0.29
Fabricio Oberto	10	9	0.02	0.48	-0.46	0.05	-1	6	-7	13.6	17.1	-3.53	18.3	15.5	2.81
Roger Mason Jr.	47	48	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.07	-3	8	-11	17.1	16.3	0.89	15.5	16.2	-0.77

Chicago Bulls
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Kirk Hinrich	41	44	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-4	3	15.6	16.0	-0.32	17.4	16.1	1.34
Joakim Noah	41	40	-0.07	-0.43	0.36	0.19	-9	4	-13	16.9	14.8	2.10	17.0	16.5	0.44
Thabo Sefolosha	16	16	-0.07	-0.42	0.35	-0.10	1	-6	7	15.9	15.8	0.16	18.3	16.4	1.93
Andres Nocioni	57	57	-0.16	-0.34	0.19	-0.42	9	-14	23	14.8	17.7	-2.89	17.8	14.8	3.04
Tyrus Thomas	35	36	-0.25	-0.25	-0.00	0.04	-10	5	-15	17.3	14.8	2.41	15.0	17.9	-2.86
Derrick Rose	67	67	-0.36	-0.14	-0.22	-0.25	-4	-1	-3	15.7	16.0	-0.32	17.2	15.2	2.00
Ben Gordon	69	67	-0.51	0.01	-0.52	-0.45	-2	-3	1	15.8	15.7	0.16	15.8	19.6	-3.80
Drew Gooden	43	45	-0.52	0.02	-0.54	-0.52	0	-5	5	14.9	16.7	-1.76	16.5	17.0	-0.49
Luol Deng	71	73	-0.54	0.04	-0.58	-0.28	-9	4	-13	15.9	15.4	0.56	16.4	18.3	-1.93

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.44,0.38,0.38,0.34,0.27,0.27,0.25,0.28,0.3,0.28,0.38,0.33,0.37,0.39,0.49,0.44,0.44,0.51,0.56,0.5,0.54,0.55,0.58,0.48,0.41,0.45,0.45,0.48,0.34,0.26,0.22,0.26,0.19,0.21,0.24,0.23,0.26,0.29,0.33,0.39,0.54,0.55,0.08,0
Game		Similarity Score
PHX 94, NOP 88	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.45,0.42,0.38,0.44,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.31,0.31,0.34,0.32,0.38,0.45,0.44,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.39,0.45,0.54,0.46,0.44,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.51,0.58,0.48,0.52,0.45,0.41,0.34,0.16,0.25,0.22,0.13,0.21,0.24,0.32,0.24,0.4,0.66,0.47,0.63,0.55,0.17,0	91.5%
WAS 83, CHH 80	0.5,0.51,0.45,0.46,0.42,0.39,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.35,0.37,0.31,0.27,0.3,0.26,0.33,0.36,0.42,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.51,0.46,0.44,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.41,0.38,0.34,0.26,0.15,0.13,0.1,0.21,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.15,0.28,0.39,0.37,0.45,0.42,0	91.4%
CHI 87, GSW 80	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.46,0.43,0.39,0.4,0.39,0.36,0.35,0.35,0.36,0.29,0.34,0.35,0.34,0.38,0.38,0.37,0.44,0.41,0.41,0.51,0.44,0.46,0.5,0.51,0.55,0.55,0.48,0.42,0.52,0.55,0.45,0.41,0.29,0.25,0.26,0.16,0.21,0.17,0.15,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.26,0.32,0.08,0	91.3%