NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Los Angeles Lakers	111		Excitement	8.1 [217]		MVP	Kobe Bryant (LAL): +59.5%
San Antonio Spurs	112		Comeback	4.6 [267]		LVP	Trevor Ariza (LAL): -23.6%

Los Angeles Lakers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kobe Bryant	0.59	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.06,0.06,0.17,0.59	0.11	0.45	-0.04	19	66%	0.65	4	-0.05	6	83%	0.00
Lamar Odom	0.11	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.05	0.05	-0.00	7	64%	0.11	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Derek Fisher	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.06	0.12	-0.05	0.01	10	73%	0.06	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Andrew Bynum	0.04	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.08	-0.02	0.01	15	60%	0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Josh Powell	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.04	0.01	5	60%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Pau Gasol	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.03	0.01	0.03	14	70%	0.13	5	-0.12	2	50%	-0.01
Sun Yue	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Vladimir Radmanovic	-0.03	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.01	-0.01	5	20%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Trevor Ariza	-0.24	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.13,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.04,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.24	0.04	-0.27	0.00	8	59%	0.11	1	-0.34	1	0%	-0.03

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.56	0.56	0.14	0.45	0.02	11	78%	0.58	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.06
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.06,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.37,0.36,0.35,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.4,0.36,0.36,0.36,0.36	0.36	0.19	0.14	-0.03	15	75%	0.39	2	-0.03	6	83%	-0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.11,-0.08,-0.08,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,0.02,0.22	0.22	-0.02	0.24	0.00	19	48%	0.27	2	-0.05	4	50%	-0.04
Matt Bonner	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.07	0.01	-0.01	7	71%	0.09	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	0.00	4	77%	0.13	2	-0.05	5	60%	-0.02
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.00	2	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	33%	0.01	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	0.02	-0.06	0.01	14	62%	0.05	4	-0.11	4	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.8	3.0	29.3	19.6	29.2	4.3	33.9	143.1
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +8.1%

SAS +34.6%

LAL -7.3%

SAS +12.9%

SAS +1.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	LAL	SAS	NBA	LAL	SAS	NBA
this game	16.1	15.9	15.5	123.3	124.4	106.4
season	14.9	16.4		110.6	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.4		103.2	102.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
LAL	12.5	17.7	17.9	17.0	16.1
SAS	15.2	13.6	17.2	18.1	15.9

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Los Angeles Lakers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Josh Powell	25	25	0.13	-0.63	0.76	-0.05	6	-7	13	18.0	15.4	2.56	15.8	15.9	-0.18
Andrew Bynum	66	65	-0.02	-0.48	0.47	-0.10	3	-4	7	16.7	14.4	2.31	16.2	15.1	1.12
Sun Yue	2	3	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	-0.02	-1	0	-1	15.0	16.1	-1.14	15.3	15.9	-0.57
Vladimir Radmanovic	53	52	-0.17	-0.33	0.17	-0.05	-4	3	-7	15.8	16.5	-0.64	16.3	15.3	0.95
Trevor Ariza	44	45	-0.44	-0.06	-0.38	-0.50	2	-3	5	16.0	16.2	-0.22	15.5	16.3	-0.84
Lamar Odom	54	56	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.45	0	-1	1	15.8	16.6	-0.79	15.3	16.9	-1.60
Kobe Bryant	78	79	-0.48	-0.02	-0.45	-0.42	-2	1	-3	15.6	19.6	-4.01	15.8	16.8	-1.06
Derek Fisher	68	66	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.38	-4	3	-7	16.4	15.4	0.99	16.1	15.3	0.76
Pau Gasol	60	59	-0.54	0.04	-0.57	-0.39	-5	4	-9	15.7	16.9	-1.18	16.1	15.5	0.67

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Matt Bonner	65	65	0.60	-0.10	0.70	0.42	6	-5	11	15.1	17.8	-2.70	15.6	17.6	-2.01
Manu Ginobili	60	58	0.40	0.10	0.29	0.34	2	-1	3	15.6	16.4	-0.77	15.6	17.1	-1.52
Roger Mason Jr.	64	65	0.31	0.19	0.13	0.49	-6	7	-13	16.6	14.1	2.49	17.1	13.5	3.64
George Hill	29	29	0.25	0.25	0.01	0.05	7	-6	13	14.3	16.6	-2.33	15.4	16.4	-1.03
Tony Parker	61	61	0.25	0.25	-0.01	0.42	-6	7	-13	16.6	14.3	2.33	16.4	15.4	1.03
Michael Finley	43	43	0.23	0.27	-0.04	0.08	5	-4	9	16.3	15.5	0.79	16.7	15.6	1.12
Kurt Thomas	46	47	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.08	4	-3	7	15.6	16.2	-0.57	16.1	16.1	0.03
Tim Duncan	69	68	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.43	-8	9	-17	16.8	13.0	3.83	16.6	14.5	2.13
Bruce Bowen	13	14	0.06	0.44	-0.38	0.03	1	0	1	12.2	16.5	-4.37	11.9	16.9	-5.04

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.73,0.81,0.71,0.45,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 102, IND 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.64,0.45,0.57,1	92.5%
LAL 92, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.63,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.87,0.79,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.91,0.96,0.85,0.63,0.33,0.58,1	91.4%
SAC 106, WAS 109	0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.94,0.85,0.73,0.76,0.46,0.57,0.28,1	90.7%