NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Sacramento Kings	106		Excitement	8.7 [174]		MVP	Gilbert Arenas (WAS): +31.4%
Washington Wizards	109		Comeback	2.6 [538]		LVP	John Salmons (SAC): -21.3%

Sacramento Kings
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Mike Bibby	0.20	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.08,0.18,0.18,0.24,0.24,0.5,0.2	0.16	0.04	0.01	21	70%	0.45	3	-0.26	1	0%	-0.01
Brad Miller	0.06	0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	-0.04	0.07	-0.03	9	42%	0.10	2	-0.04	1	0%	-0.06
Ronnie Price	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kevin Martin	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	0.01	-0.05	-0.00	9	64%	0.08	3	-0.12	4	75%	-0.01
Francisco Garcia	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.02	-0.03	0.01	6	42%	-0.01	1	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Kenny Thomas	-0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.04	-0.03	-0.00	2	50%	-0.01	2	-0.05	2	50%	-0.01
Metta World Peace	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.12,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.08,0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	0.12	-0.14	0.05	17	67%	0.15	4	-0.22	14	64%	-0.05
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.04	-0.04	0.00	6	40%	-0.01	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Corliss Williamson	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12	-0.11	-0.02	-0.00	5	25%	-0.05	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
John Salmons	-0.21	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.21	-0.06	-0.13	0.03	4	62%	-0.02	4	-0.20	0	0%	0.00

Washington Wizards
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Gilbert Arenas	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.15,0.13,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.14,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.12,0.14,0.18,0.2,0.2,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.15,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.11,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.31	0.31	0.11	0.18	-0.03	22	70%	0.50	9	-0.19	17	94%	0.18
DeShawn Stevenson	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.08	0.15	-0.00	14	66%	0.28	2	-0.05	4	75%	0.03
Caron Butler	0,0,0,0.01,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.01,-0.04,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	20	54%	0.09	3	-0.07	6	83%	-0.04
Darius Songaila	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.00	0.00	7	43%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.00	-0.01	1	0%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Calvin Booth	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Etan Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	2	60%	0.03	2	-0.05	1	100%	0.00
Antonio Daniels	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.05	-0.00	-0.01	3	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Brendan Haywood	0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.01	6	38%	-0.02	2	-0.03	1	100%	0.00
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.05	-0.05	0.03	0.02	0.10	4	56%	-0.05	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Andray Blatche	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.07	-0.06	-0.02	-0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Michael Ruffin	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.2,-0.2	-0.20	-0.06	-0.15	-0.01	0	25%	-0.04	2	-0.17	4	25%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.3	1.8	28.2	15.6	27.3	2.4	42.7	144.3
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAC -38.0%

WAS +41.9%

WAS +0.8%

WAS +43.9%

WAS +1.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	SAC	WAS	NBA	SAC	WAS	NBA
this game	13.7	14.0	15.4	101.0	105.8	104.5
season	14.7	14.8		104.7	107.8
opponent	15.3	15.1		108.7	106.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
SAC	15.8	12.7	14.1	12.2	13.7
WAS	13.0	15.5	12.6	15.1	14.0

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Sacramento Kings
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Francisco Garcia	54	55	0.11	-0.61	0.72	-0.01	4	-7	11	13.4	14.0	-0.67	14.8	13.2	1.60
Brad Miller	68	67	-0.06	-0.44	0.38	-0.35	10	-13	23	13.1	14.8	-1.75	15.0	12.2	2.81
Kenny Thomas	40	38	-0.11	-0.39	0.28	-0.05	-2	-1	-1	14.6	13.1	1.45	14.1	14.0	0.18
Corliss Williamson	31	31	-0.25	-0.25	0.01	0.05	-10	7	-17	14.0	13.5	0.46	12.4	14.7	-2.34
Mike Bibby	79	77	-0.25	-0.25	-0.01	-0.52	9	-12	21	13.7	13.7	-0.07	14.5	12.7	1.72
Kevin Martin	76	76	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.44	6	-9	15	13.7	13.6	0.12	14.9	11.6	3.29
Ronnie Price	8	8	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	0.02	-10	7	-17	13.9	13.7	0.22	15.1	13.9	1.20
Shareef Abdur-Rahim	37	36	-0.32	-0.18	-0.14	-0.03	-10	7	-17	14.8	13.1	1.75	12.2	15.0	-2.81
Metta World Peace	95	95	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.48	3	-6	9	13.4	16.0	-2.57	14.0	14.1	-0.11
John Salmons	37	32	-0.69	0.19	-0.88	-0.25	-15	12	-27	13.5	13.8	-0.33	10.8	15.5	-4.61

Washington Wizards
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Michael Ruffin	31	32	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.56	4	-1	5	11.8	15.0	-3.12	14.3	13.4	0.96
DeShawn Stevenson	81	85	0.61	-0.11	0.72	0.26	12	-9	21	14.0	14.2	-0.26	14.0	12.2	1.82
Caron Butler	83	85	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.45	0	3	-3	13.9	14.6	-0.78	13.9	12.7	1.14
Gilbert Arenas	98	99	0.44	0.06	0.39	0.41	1	2	-1	13.9	17.0	-3.13	13.6	14.7	-1.05
Jarvis Hayes	48	51	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.32	-2	5	-7	14.1	13.9	0.24	12.6	14.6	-2.00
Antonio Daniels	15	16	0.09	0.41	-0.32	0.09	0	3	-3	15.3	13.8	1.54	11.1	14.1	-3.01
Brendan Haywood	49	47	0.08	0.42	-0.34	0.05	1	2	-1	14.8	13.3	1.56	13.9	13.5	0.43
Calvin Booth	10	10	0.08	0.42	-0.34	-0.04	4	-1	5	15.4	13.9	1.53	14.9	13.5	1.35
Etan Thomas	17	17	0.07	0.43	-0.36	-0.05	4	-1	5	13.6	14.1	-0.45	13.2	13.8	-0.60
Andray Blatche	34	35	0.03	0.47	-0.44	0.06	-1	4	-5	14.2	13.9	0.23	14.3	13.3	1.00
Roger Mason Jr.	12	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.10	-4	7	-11	14.0	14.0	-0.02	13.5	13.7	-0.20
Darius Songaila	37	36	-0.28	0.78	-1.06	-0.16	-4	7	-11	14.6	13.7	0.90	13.5	13.8	-0.27

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.43,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.55,0.51,0.56,0.6,0.63,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.61,0.64,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.68,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.67,0.65,0.67,0.73,0.76,0.81,0.78,0.92,0.95,0.94,0.97,0.99,0.94,0.85,0.73,0.76,0.46,0.57,0.28,1
Game		Similarity Score
NOP 87, CHA 90	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.47,0.53,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.66,0.68,0.69,0.66,0.73,0.7,0.68,0.66,0.71,0.76,0.7,0.78,0.8,0.79,0.82,0.75,0.73,0.76,0.69,0.72,0.72,0.76,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.87,0.88,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.95,0.94,0.81,0.63,0.69,0.42,1	91.4%
ORL 101, CHI 105	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.49,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.45,0.53,0.57,0.47,0.47,0.58,0.56,0.53,0.58,0.52,0.54,0.59,0.54,0.62,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.73,0.76,0.74,0.65,0.72,0.79,0.81,0.78,0.74,0.9,0.93,0.99,0.99,0.96,0.91,0.73,0.73,0.37,0.57,0.58,1	91.1%
LAL 111, SAS 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.73,0.81,0.71,0.45,0.28,1	90.7%