NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Detroit Pistons	102		Excitement	8.1 [221]		MVP	Jarrett Jack (IND): +35.5%
Indiana Pacers	106		Comeback	2.3 [518]		LVP	Troy Murphy (IND): -16.0%

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Richard Hamilton	0.20	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.08,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,0.13,0.04,0.2	-0.03	0.23	-0.00	23	48%	0.28	3	-0.07	2	50%	-0.01
Antonio McDyess	0.16	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	0.00	11	67%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Will Bynum	0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.04	0.04	0.00	9	62%	0.17	2	-0.10	8	100%	0.09
Jason Maxiell	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.00	0.00	4	67%	0.06	1	-0.04	4	50%	-0.03
Arron Afflalo	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.05,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.00	0.01	0.00	3	62%	0.04	1	-0.03	2	0%	-0.03
Walter Herrmann	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rodney Stuckey	-0.01	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.05	-0.01	-0.05	9	42%	0.02	2	-0.04	6	100%	0.03
Tayshaun Prince	-0.03	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,-0.03	0.08	-0.09	0.03	9	86%	0.18	4	-0.22	3	100%	0.01
Rasheed Wallace	-0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.15	-0.00	-0.13	0.02	6	43%	-0.15	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01

Indiana Pacers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarrett Jack	0,0,0,0,0.01,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.09,-0.13,0.03,0.17,0.36	0.36	0.03	0.33	0.00	15	55%	0.42	2	-0.07	3	100%	0.02
Brandon Rush	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.07,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.14	0.04	-0.01	16	66%	0.18	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
T.J. Ford	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.02,0.02,0.06,0.14,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18	0.18	0.07	0.11	-0.00	14	56%	0.20	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.03
Jeff Foster	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.04	0.00	3	62%	0.06	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Josh McRoberts	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	3	67%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Danny Granger	0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.13,-0.13,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.05,0.01,0.08,0.08,-0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.02	0.03	-0.01	22	45%	0.05	1	-0.03	9	78%	0.04
Roy Hibbert	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.01	-0.01	9	45%	0.01	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Troy Murphy	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16	-0.16	-0.09	-0.08	-0.01	6	50%	0.03	5	-0.19	2	50%	-0.05

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.5	2.0	29.2	16.4	22.2	2.4	37.5	136.2
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

IND +15.9%

IND +5.5%

IND +11.9%

IND +13.3%

IND +3.5%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DET	IND	NBA	DET	IND	NBA
this game	16.2	15.7	15.5	112.1	117.8	106.4
season	16.9	14.1		104.9	106.5
opponent	15.3	15.7		107.7	106.2

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
DET	14.8	16.7	19.1	14.2	16.2
IND	15.8	16.8	14.3	15.8	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Amir Johnson	15	15	0.18	-0.68	0.87	-0.08	9	-13	22	14.9	16.4	-1.47	17.7	15.3	2.41
Walter Herrmann	9	9	0.02	-0.52	0.53	-0.04	2	-6	8	16.2	16.2	0.06	15.2	15.7	-0.48
Rodney Stuckey	51	51	-0.03	-0.47	0.44	-0.00	-1	-3	2	16.8	15.4	1.36	16.4	14.7	1.75
Arron Afflalo	25	24	-0.13	-0.37	0.25	-0.07	-2	-2	0	15.8	16.3	-0.45	15.2	15.8	-0.55
Antonio McDyess	70	69	-0.28	-0.22	-0.05	-0.36	3	-7	10	16.1	16.2	-0.10	16.0	14.4	1.66
Richard Hamilton	68	66	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	0	-4	16.4	15.5	0.92	15.3	16.6	-1.27
Jason Maxiell	36	36	-0.41	-0.09	-0.31	0.00	-14	10	-24	16.7	15.8	0.97	15.6	15.7	-0.17
Tayshaun Prince	78	78	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.37	-2	-2	0	16.1	16.3	-0.17	15.9	13.8	2.10
Rasheed Wallace	61	60	-0.50	0.00	-0.50	-0.33	-6	2	-8	16.1	16.2	-0.05	14.8	17.4	-2.67
Will Bynum	42	42	-0.52	0.02	-0.55	-0.38	-5	1	-6	15.3	16.9	-1.63	15.1	16.2	-1.10

Indiana Pacers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarrett Jack	80	81	0.60	-0.10	0.71	0.31	10	-6	16	15.4	17.8	-2.41	16.1	16.6	-0.49
Jeff Foster	50	51	0.49	0.01	0.49	0.32	6	-2	8	16.1	15.1	1.00	16.1	16.3	-0.24
Troy Murphy	71	72	0.42	0.08	0.34	0.42	0	4	-4	15.3	16.8	-1.50	15.7	17.7	-1.99
T.J. Ford	57	58	0.40	0.10	0.30	0.37	1	3	-2	15.9	15.2	0.65	15.9	16.7	-0.83
Brandon Rush	62	62	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	2	0	16.2	14.4	1.83	16.4	15.6	0.85
Danny Granger	71	72	0.23	0.27	-0.03	0.26	-1	5	-6	15.3	17.1	-1.84	16.2	15.9	0.34
Josh McRoberts	19	20	0.04	0.46	-0.41	-0.07	4	0	4	16.8	15.3	1.50	18.0	15.6	2.35
Roy Hibbert	40	39	0.04	0.46	-0.41	0.10	-2	6	-8	15.1	16.1	-1.00	16.1	16.2	-0.06

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.64,0.45,0.57,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 100, TOR 106	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.81,0.85,0.74,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.7,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.8,0.72,0.57,0.72,1	92.6%
LAL 111, SAS 112	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.47,0.43,0.41,0.43,0.49,0.44,0.52,0.56,0.58,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.59,0.49,0.58,0.56,0.51,0.52,0.63,0.64,0.67,0.58,0.55,0.52,0.56,0.63,0.71,0.82,0.81,0.91,0.88,0.9,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.73,0.81,0.71,0.45,0.28,1	92.5%
LAL 92, TOR 96	0.5,0.49,0.49,0.52,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.55,0.53,0.55,0.56,0.51,0.48,0.56,0.64,0.58,0.53,0.51,0.49,0.46,0.49,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.62,0.69,0.67,0.64,0.73,0.71,0.68,0.59,0.63,0.77,0.72,0.78,0.87,0.79,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.91,0.96,0.85,0.63,0.33,0.58,1	92.4%