NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Milwaukee Bucks	100		Excitement	7.8 [294]		MVP	Serge Ibaka (TOR): +24.2%
Toronto Raptors	106		Comeback	1.3 [1046]		LVP	Malcolm Brogdon (MIL): -16.7%

Milwaukee Bucks
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Tony Snell	0.16	0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.09,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.15	0.03	0.02	7	100%	0.16	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Greg Monroe	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.12,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.18,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.13	0.02	-0.00	9	75%	0.18	1	-0.03	6	100%	0.04
Giannis Antetokounmpo	0.13	0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.13,-0.1,-0.1,-0.11,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.06,-0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13	-0.08	0.15	-0.06	24	44%	0.23	4	-0.10	7	71%	-0.02
Spencer Hawes	0.07	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.00	0.06	0.00	2	50%	0.07	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Terry	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.04	0	0.00	1	100%	0.00
Thon Maker	-0.04	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	7	36%	-0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mirza Teletovic	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matthew Dellavedova	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.12	-0.03	-0.10	-0.00	10	35%	-0.12	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Khris Middleton	-0.13	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.01,-0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13	0.05	-0.17	0.01	14	61%	-0.05	3	-0.09	5	100%	0.03
Malcolm Brogdon	-0.17	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.07,-0.07,-0.15,-0.17	-0.09	-0.08	0.00	11	32%	-0.10	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00

Toronto Raptors
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Serge Ibaka	0,0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.05,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.04,0.03,0,0.12,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.19,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.24,0.24,0.24	0.24	0.04	0.20	-0.00	15	53%	0.26	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
DeMarre Carroll	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13	0.13	0.09	0.04	-0.00	4	82%	0.13	0	0.00	3	33%	-0.03
Kyle Lowry	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.15,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.06,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.11	0.11	0.06	0.05	-0.00	12	67%	0.20	4	-0.09	9	89%	0.01
Cory Joseph	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.14,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1	0.10	0.07	0.03	-0.00	6	92%	0.14	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
DeMar DeRozan	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.06,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.05	0.01	18	55%	0.15	2	-0.07	6	83%	0.00
Jakob Poeltl	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Patrick Patterson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0	-0.00	0.02	-0.01	0.01	6	57%	0.03	1	-0.03	2	100%	0.00
Delon Wright	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	-0.00	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jonas Valanciunas	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.01	10	43%	0.01	2	-0.05	3	67%	-0.01
PJ Tucker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.08	-0.08	0.01	-0.09	-0.00	4	50%	-0.08	0	0.00	2	0%	-0.13

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.4	3.4	30.9	14.6	26.4	3.4	37.3	142.4
league avg	24.8	2.3	29.6	15.7	26.8	2.3	33.5	136.4

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

TOR +73.0%

MIL -23.7%

MIL -2.7%

MIL -0.4%

TOR +3.8%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	MIL	TOR	NBA	MIL	TOR	NBA
this game	15.6	15.7	14.8	108.7	115.2	107.7
season	14.9	15.2		107.4	110.0
opponent	14.9	15.3		106.9	107.8

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
MIL	15.2	15.3	16.5	15.4	15.6
TOR	16.1	16.0	14.8	15.9	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Milwaukee Bucks
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Spencer Hawes	11	11	0.07	-0.57	0.64	0.01	2	-8	10	15.1	15.7	-0.58	17.4	15.5	1.88
Jason Terry	12	11	-0.01	-0.49	0.48	0.02	-1	-5	4	15.4	15.6	-0.21	15.1	15.8	-0.70
Giannis Antetokounmpo	81	81	-0.08	-0.42	0.33	-0.26	6	-12	18	15.6	15.7	-0.15	15.9	14.5	1.32
Tony Snell	58	58	-0.12	-0.38	0.27	-0.06	-2	-4	2	15.5	15.8	-0.26	15.7	15.6	0.09
Mirza Teletovic	25	25	-0.26	-0.24	-0.01	0.01	-9	3	-12	15.4	15.7	-0.33	14.9	16.0	-1.08
Greg Monroe	42	41	-0.27	-0.23	-0.04	-0.06	-7	1	-8	15.8	15.4	0.43	15.2	16.1	-0.92
Thon Maker	39	40	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.27	-1	-5	4	15.5	15.7	-0.19	15.8	15.7	0.12
Matthew Dellavedova	42	43	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.28	-4	-2	-2	15.3	15.8	-0.53	15.9	15.6	0.29
Malcolm Brogdon	72	72	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.33	-5	-1	-4	15.9	14.6	1.28	15.7	15.8	-0.12
Khris Middleton	78	78	-0.66	0.16	-0.82	-0.40	-9	3	-12	15.7	15.1	0.62	15.8	15.2	0.58

Toronto Raptors
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Serge Ibaka	69	70	0.68	-0.18	0.86	0.30	13	-7	20	15.3	16.9	-1.55	15.8	15.1	0.67
Kyle Lowry	76	77	0.63	-0.13	0.75	0.42	7	-1	8	15.9	14.8	1.08	15.5	15.9	-0.32
Patrick Patterson	59	58	0.46	0.04	0.43	0.29	6	0	6	16.4	14.4	2.00	14.8	17.0	-2.27
PJ Tucker	52	53	0.35	0.15	0.19	0.29	2	4	-2	15.7	15.7	0.06	15.6	15.6	0.06
DeMar DeRozan	72	72	0.16	0.34	-0.17	0.19	-1	7	-8	15.7	15.7	-0.06	15.3	16.8	-1.54
Cory Joseph	34	33	0.11	0.39	-0.29	0.08	1	5	-4	15.5	15.8	-0.37	16.1	15.3	0.77
Jakob Poeltl	7	7	0.10	0.40	-0.30	-0.02	4	2	2	15.3	15.7	-0.46	12.3	15.9	-3.58
Jonas Valanciunas	42	42	0.09	0.41	-0.31	0.07	1	5	-4	15.5	15.8	-0.29	16.1	15.2	0.92
Delon Wright	15	15	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	-0.05	1	5	-4	16.5	15.6	0.91	16.1	15.5	0.64
DeMarre Carroll	34	33	-0.06	0.56	-0.63	0.05	-4	10	-14	15.0	16.1	-1.12	16.9	14.9	2.00

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.55,0.49,0.54,0.56,0.56,0.49,0.5,0.49,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.57,0.62,0.69,0.62,0.51,0.58,0.61,0.68,0.64,0.64,0.64,0.73,0.54,0.51,0.54,0.61,0.7,0.81,0.85,0.74,0.69,0.63,0.67,0.68,0.54,0.7,0.85,0.93,0.95,0.83,0.81,0.88,0.8,0.72,0.57,0.72,1
Game		Similarity Score
DET 102, IND 106	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.52,0.54,0.53,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.51,0.47,0.52,0.55,0.64,0.58,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.64,0.61,0.58,0.61,0.64,0.54,0.58,0.63,0.67,0.67,0.61,0.68,0.55,0.65,0.59,0.6,0.64,0.7,0.82,0.82,0.92,0.93,0.79,0.8,0.78,0.75,0.64,0.45,0.57,1	92.6%
CHA 78, UTA 83	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.6,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.62,0.55,0.55,0.53,0.53,0.6,0.65,0.58,0.62,0.6,0.65,0.61,0.66,0.66,0.66,0.61,0.56,0.56,0.51,0.6,0.66,0.75,0.85,0.81,0.79,0.71,0.59,0.66,0.67,0.56,0.5,0.66,0.79,0.89,0.92,0.89,0.8,0.86,0.69,0.78,0.76,0.74,1	92.1%
PHX 93, LAL 99	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.5,0.5,0.44,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.47,0.47,0.46,0.5,0.47,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.63,0.73,0.69,0.64,0.61,0.67,0.7,0.62,0.64,0.72,0.67,0.76,0.74,0.68,0.69,0.69,0.63,0.6,0.58,0.66,0.75,0.75,0.85,0.96,0.91,0.91,0.75,0.72,0.68,0.84,1	91.8%