NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Oklahoma City Thunder	104		Excitement	4.2 [992]		MVP	Roger Mason Jr. (SAS): +9.4%
San Antonio Spurs	109		Comeback	1.2 [1305]		LVP	Russell Westbrook (OKC): -5.6%

Oklahoma City Thunder
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Kevin Durant	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07	0.09	0.02	0.04	24	55%	0.08	1	-0.02	3	100%	0.01
Nick Collison	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.1,0.06,0.06	0.09	-0.01	0.01	5	77%	0.06	0	0.00	3	67%	-0.01
Earl Watson	0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	-0.01	0.02	-0.02	7	64%	0.07	3	-0.04	0	0%	0.00
Jeff Green	0.01	0,0,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01	0.18	-0.04	0.12	23	66%	0.05	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.00
Joe Smith	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.02	0.00	0.03	2	67%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Kyle Weaver	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.03	0.00	-0.02	4	37%	0.00	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Desmond Mason	-0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	0.03	-0.02	0.02	7	57%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Johan Petro	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.03	0.00	-0.00	5	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	-0.04	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.00	-0.00	5	30%	-0.03	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Russell Westbrook	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	-0.00	-0.00	3	33%	-0.01	2	-0.04	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Roger Mason Jr.	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.10	0.00	0.01	8	82%	0.11	1	-0.02	1	0%	-0.01
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.09	0.09	0.03	0.07	0.01	18	55%	0.12	2	-0.03	4	100%	0.01
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.12,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.04	0.03	-0.02	12	59%	0.12	2	-0.03	10	80%	0.02
Matt Bonner	0,0,0.03,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	0.01	0.03	12	71%	0.09	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0.01,0.01,0.07	0.07	0.00	0.04	-0.03	10	50%	0.09	2	-0.02	8	50%	-0.03
Kurt Thomas	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.03	0.00	0.02	4	60%	0.01	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
George Hill	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	8	56%	0.03	2	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Michael Finley	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.00	0.01	8	44%	-0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.2	2.4	28.4	16.3	22.3	2.5	32.3	127.5
league avg	26.4	2.4	30.1	16.5	27.1	2.4	33.3	140.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +32.6%

SAS +2.3%

SAS +3.9%

SAS +7.2%

SAS +4.0%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	OKC	SAS	NBA	OKC	SAS	NBA
this game	14.7	16.1	15.5	110.6	117.2	106.4
season	14.9	16.4		100.5	106.6
opponent	15.7	15.1		103.2	106.6

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
OKC	15.7	12.8	15.6	14.8	14.7
SAS	16.3	17.4	15.0	15.8	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Oklahoma City Thunder
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joe Smith	20	18	-0.02	-0.48	0.46	-0.14	4	-9	13	12.9	15.2	-2.26	16.1	16.1	-0.09
Kyle Weaver	25	23	-0.09	-0.41	0.32	-0.15	2	-7	9	12.8	15.4	-2.56	17.4	15.7	1.68
Damien Wilkins	29	31	-0.12	-0.38	0.26	-0.09	-1	-4	3	16.3	14.0	2.31	16.0	16.2	-0.19
Johan Petro	32	34	-0.22	-0.28	0.06	0.01	-8	3	-11	16.6	13.7	2.85	15.7	16.4	-0.67
Nick Collison	42	41	-0.26	-0.24	-0.02	-0.23	-1	-4	3	14.1	15.2	-1.06	16.5	15.8	0.69
Russell Westbrook	35	37	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.04	-8	3	-11	16.3	13.7	2.60	16.5	15.9	0.59
Earl Watson	62	59	-0.28	-0.22	-0.06	-0.37	3	-8	11	13.7	16.6	-2.85	16.4	15.7	0.67
Jeff Green	82	82	-0.39	-0.11	-0.28	-0.36	-1	-4	3	15.0	12.3	2.69	16.1	16.5	-0.37
Desmond Mason	52	50	-0.40	-0.10	-0.30	-0.11	-10	5	-15	14.2	15.3	-1.18	15.7	16.6	-0.93
Kevin Durant	91	90	-0.45	-0.05	-0.39	-0.30	-5	0	-5	14.7	13.7	1.05	15.8	25.3	-9.51

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	59	59	0.41	0.09	0.32	0.35	2	3	-1	15.8	16.6	-0.77	14.6	14.9	-0.33
Roger Mason Jr.	55	54	0.38	0.12	0.25	-0.09	16	-11	27	15.9	16.4	-0.54	15.4	13.6	1.79
Tim Duncan	71	72	0.37	0.13	0.23	0.28	3	2	1	15.8	17.2	-1.38	14.9	14.0	0.89
Tony Parker	71	71	0.34	0.16	0.18	0.31	1	4	-3	15.7	17.5	-1.86	15.1	13.3	1.82
Matt Bonner	64	65	0.29	0.21	0.08	0.29	0	5	-5	16.3	15.8	0.44	15.4	13.2	2.18
Michael Finley	60	61	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.38	-4	9	-13	16.5	15.4	1.09	14.4	15.1	-0.68
Kurt Thomas	26	27	0.21	0.29	-0.08	0.03	6	-1	7	17.0	15.8	1.16	14.0	14.9	-0.90
George Hill	25	26	0.13	0.37	-0.24	0.10	1	4	-3	17.6	15.6	1.96	13.5	15.1	-1.69
Bruce Bowen	34	35	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.12	0	5	-5	15.9	16.2	-0.30	12.9	15.7	-2.77

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.54,0.49,0.49,0.58,0.6,0.62,0.66,0.72,0.75,0.8,0.85,0.83,0.86,0.87,0.9,0.93,0.91,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.94,0.91,0.89,0.93,0.93,0.9,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.92,0.91,0.91,0.88,0.92,0.92,0.95,0.97,0.93,0.89,0.88,0.89,0.85,0.94,0.93,0.89,0.86,0.91,1
Game		Similarity Score
MIL 108, LAC 116	0.5,0.49,0.52,0.57,0.54,0.61,0.62,0.63,0.68,0.7,0.76,0.82,0.81,0.81,0.86,0.86,0.93,0.93,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.94,0.94,0.93,0.91,0.91,0.92,0.9,0.92,0.89,0.9,0.91,0.88,0.87,0.93,0.97,0.97,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.95,0.95,0.97,1,1	95.5%
BOS 113, DAL 118	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.48,0.55,0.58,0.6,0.6,0.66,0.73,0.78,0.82,0.81,0.84,0.91,0.92,0.94,0.96,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.98,0.95,0.93,0.92,0.93,0.88,0.87,0.8,0.91,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.92,0.94,0.89,0.96,0.88,0.92,0.94,0.9,0.81,0.84,1,0.91,1	95.2%
CLE 79, MIA 83	0.5,0.51,0.55,0.57,0.58,0.66,0.65,0.62,0.68,0.75,0.78,0.81,0.79,0.78,0.82,0.85,0.85,0.9,0.94,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.99,0.97,0.97,0.96,0.95,0.95,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.97,0.98,0.98,0.95,0.96,0.95,0.97,0.94,0.89,0.85,0.84,0.94,0.93,0.96,0.99,0.98,0.92,1	94.9%