NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Denver Nuggets	147		Excitement	12.7 [10]		MVP	Jeff Green (SEA): +39.0%
Seattle SuperSonics	151		Comeback	73.6 [3]		LVP	Anthony Carter (DEN): -22.3%

Denver Nuggets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carmelo Anthony	0.33	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.07,0.05,0.02,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.19,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.27,0.14,0.14,0.21,0.21,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.33,0.37,0.37,0.33	0.14	0.19	-0.00	31	58%	0.36	2	-0.04	3	67%	0.00
Linas Kleiza	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,0.03,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.38,0.38,0.32,0.32,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.28,0.25,0.25	0.04	0.20	-0.00	11	65%	0.42	3	-0.18	4	50%	-0.02
Kenyon Martin	0.24	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.09,0.15,0.21,0.21,0.21,0.24	0.09	0.15	0.00	16	61%	0.24	0	0.00	4	50%	-0.00
Eduardo Najera	0.16	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.09	0.07	0.00	5	83%	0.16	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
J.R. Smith	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.08,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06	0.03	0.04	0.01	7	65%	0.13	2	-0.07	3	67%	-0.00
Allen Iverson	0.01	0,0,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.03,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.11,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.07,-0.07,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.18,0.16,0.11,0.05,0.05,0.01,0.01	-0.02	0.07	0.04	21	46%	0.06	2	-0.04	15	67%	-0.06
Marcus Camby	-0.00	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.04	-0.02	0.02	8	60%	0.04	1	-0.04	4	100%	0.02
Anthony Carter	-0.22	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.02,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22,-0.22	-0.04	-0.18	0.00	8	55%	-0.10	4	-0.12	4	75%	-0.00

Seattle SuperSonics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jeff Green	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.05,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,-0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.21,0.21,0.29,0.29,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.33,0.23,0.23,0.29,0.43,0.43,0.39,0.39	0.39	0.14	0.25	0.00	21	73%	0.68	6	-0.29	6	83%	0.03
Kevin Durant	0,0,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.13,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.07,-0.07,-0.14,-0.23,-0.23,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.29,0.28,0.3	0.30	0.09	0.25	0.04	24	61%	0.47	5	-0.17	13	100%	0.07
Nick Collison	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.17,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.14,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.22,0.22,0.22	0.22	0.13	0.10	0.02	13	70%	0.22	0	0.00	1	100%	0.01
Luke Ridnour	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.09,0.09,0.11,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.14,0.14,0.09,0.09,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.18,0.09,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.10	-0.02	0.00	14	63%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	0.00
Johan Petro	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	-0.00	5	60%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damien Wilkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.03	-0.01	11	42%	0.06	1	-0.04	4	75%	-0.01
Earl Watson	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.12,-0.09,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0.01,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.01,0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01	0.01	-0.06	0.05	-0.02	17	44%	0.10	3	-0.09	2	100%	0.03
Adrian Griffin	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Donyell Marshall	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	0.00	3	33%	-0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.02	-0.01	-0.00	8	37%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	21.9	2.5	32.3	15.4	26.5	2.3	32.5	1.8	15.6	1.6	17.3	169.6
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	1.9	17.1	1.9	17.1	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SEA +9.1%

SEA +22.1%

SEA +23.5%

DEN -9.4%

SEA +4.7%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	DEN	SEA	NBA	DEN	SEA	NBA
this game	12.6	14.4	15.4	115.7	116.2	105.7
season	13.3	14.5		108.2	99.1
opponent	15.0	15.2		107.9	105.4

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
DEN	11.0	12.1	11.7	15.7	13.3	12.6
SEA	14.2	13.2	13.5	15.6	16.6	14.4

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Denver Nuggets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Linas Kleiza	49	53	0.22	-0.72	0.94	0.10	4	-8	12	13.3	12.2	1.16	14.6	14.3	0.27
J.R. Smith	38	41	0.14	-0.64	0.78	0.08	2	-6	8	11.8	13.0	-1.18	12.6	15.3	-2.65
Eduardo Najera	51	50	0.13	-0.63	0.77	0.13	0	-4	4	12.2	12.9	-0.67	13.8	14.8	-1.02
Allen Iverson	121	123	-0.43	-0.07	-0.35	-0.40	-1	-3	2	12.8	8.8	3.97	14.5	13.1	1.38
Kenyon Martin	95	98	-0.47	-0.03	-0.44	-0.35	-4	0	-4	13.0	11.6	1.41	15.5	11.3	4.12
Marcus Camby	104	106	-0.64	0.14	-0.79	-0.47	-6	2	-8	12.8	11.6	1.23	14.5	14.0	0.55
Carmelo Anthony	104	107	-0.68	0.18	-0.86	-0.50	-6	2	-8	12.7	12.2	0.54	14.5	14.0	0.49
Anthony Carter	73	72	-0.77	0.27	-1.04	-0.51	-9	5	-14	11.6	14.0	-2.35	14.0	15.0	-0.97

Seattle SuperSonics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Earl Watson	93	92	0.68	-0.18	0.85	0.44	8	-4	12	15.3	12.4	2.85	12.9	11.8	1.12
Jeff Green	108	106	0.45	0.05	0.40	0.39	2	2	0	14.8	12.8	1.96	12.9	11.0	1.93
Luke Ridnour	78	77	0.38	0.12	0.26	0.26	4	0	4	14.3	14.6	-0.28	13.1	11.9	1.14
Kevin Durant	115	112	0.35	0.15	0.20	0.41	-2	6	-8	14.5	13.7	0.88	12.7	12.2	0.47
Nick Collison	102	99	0.33	0.17	0.16	0.21	4	0	4	14.9	12.8	2.07	12.7	12.2	0.51
Damien Wilkins	46	44	0.28	0.22	0.07	0.17	4	0	4	12.8	15.3	-2.54	11.9	13.0	-1.11
Adrian Griffin	12	12	0.16	0.34	-0.17	-0.01	6	-2	8	12.1	14.7	-2.60	11.7	12.7	-1.05
Donyell Marshall	17	17	0.05	0.45	-0.40	0.05	0	4	-4	12.6	14.7	-2.14	11.4	12.8	-1.39
Francisco Elson	43	43	0.02	0.48	-0.47	0.10	-3	7	-10	13.5	14.9	-1.40	11.7	13.1	-1.42
Johan Petro	36	33	-0.20	0.70	-0.89	-0.11	-3	7	-10	14.9	14.3	0.61	12.3	12.7	-0.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.45,0.34,0.44,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.69,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.55,0.43,0.16,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.04,0.46,0.55,0.77,0.91,0.96,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 118, SAC 123	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.43,0.41,0.54,0.55,0.78,0.86,0.98,1	89.5%
ORL 96, BOS 105	0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.45,0.1,0.27,0.54,0.62,0.79,0.55,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.55,0.77,0.83,1	87.3%
MIL 110, MIA 112	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.48,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.59,0.53,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.45,0.44,0.49,0.46,0.46,0.53,0.48,0.56,0.56,0.56,0.54,0.55,0.49,0.61,0.73,0.61,0.71,0.71,0.69,0.73,0.8,0.64,0.54,0.62,0.66,0.67,0.67,0.69,0.49,0.22,0.25,0.54,0.67,0.58,0.46,0.69,0.64,0.33,0.42,0.54,0.64,0.79,0.98,0.96,1	86.4%