NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Orlando Magic	96		Excitement	12.3 [16]		MVP	Paul Pierce (BOS): +18.9%
Boston Celtics	105		Comeback	10.7 [119]		LVP	Jameer Nelson (ORL): -39.9%

Orlando Magic
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Carlos Arroyo	0.15	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.03,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15,0.15	0.04	0.11	0.00	2	75%	0.15	0	0.00	4	100%	0.06
Grant Hill	0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.16,0.16,0.22,0.22,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.03	0.07	0.03	17	56%	0.13	2	-0.07	2	100%	0.01
Trevor Ariza	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.01	0.03	-0.00	4	58%	0.06	1	-0.02	4	75%	0.01
Keyon Dooling	0.04	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.00	0.03	-0.00	3	75%	0.10	2	-0.06	2	100%	0.02
Darko Milicic	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
JJ Redick	-0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.01	-0.00	2	43%	-0.00	2	-0.05	3	100%	0.02
Tony Battie	-0.12	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.12,-0.12	-0.07	-0.05	-0.00	17	34%	-0.12	0	0.00	4	25%	-0.06
Hedo Turkoglu	-0.15	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0,-0.03,-0.05,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.02,-0.15	0.03	-0.15	0.02	14	61%	0.13	4	-0.27	5	60%	-0.03
Dwight Howard	-0.35	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.14,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.3,-0.31,-0.31,-0.38,-0.38,-0.27,-0.27,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35,-0.35	-0.18	-0.20	-0.02	9	40%	-0.07	6	-0.28	12	33%	-0.13
Jameer Nelson	-0.40	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.17,-0.17,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4,-0.4	-0.17	-0.27	-0.03	16	27%	-0.35	3	-0.04	1	100%	0.01

Boston Celtics
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Paul Pierce	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0,0,0,0.04,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.1,-0.1,-0.02,0.04,0.11,0.04,0.04,0.33,0.27,0.27,0.19,0.19,0.19	0.19	0.05	0.18	0.04	26	51%	0.21	1	-0.02	11	82%	-0.02
Delonte West	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.08,0.08,0.05,0.09,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11	0.11	0.05	0.08	0.02	13	57%	0.14	1	-0.03	4	100%	0.08
Kendrick Perkins	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08	0.08	0.03	0.04	0.00	9	55%	0.08	0	0.00	2	50%	-0.01
Allan Ray	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.03	0.00	1	100%	0.05	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Gerald Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.02	0.01	-0.00	2	50%	0.03	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00
Leon Powe	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.02	-0.02	0.00	-0.00	0	0%	0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Sebastian Telfair	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,0,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.05	-0.07	0.01	-0.01	4	40%	-0.00	3	-0.05	2	100%	0.01
Ryan Gomes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09	-0.09	-0.06	-0.03	-0.00	8	44%	0.01	3	-0.11	2	100%	0.01
Al Jefferson	0,0,0.02,0.02,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.07,-0.01,-0.01,-0.13,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.18,-0.31,-0.31,-0.39,-0.29,-0.18,-0.14	-0.14	0.03	-0.15	0.02	17	56%	0.10	3	-0.23	7	71%	-0.01
Rajon Rondo	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.17,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.28,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21,-0.21	-0.21	-0.10	-0.10	0.00	12	25%	-0.17	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4		OT1		OT2	Total
this game	28.2	2.6	31.4	15.5	27.4	1.6	36.8	0.7	13.1	0.6	17.0	174.8
league avg	28.7	2.4	29.9	15.9	26.5	2.4	34.0	1.9	17.4	1.9	17.4	141.5

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

BOS +30.1%

BOS +12.4%

ORL -20.5%

BOS +21.5%

BOS +6.4%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	ORL	BOS	NBA	ORL	BOS	NBA
this game	16.5	15.7	15.4	88.9	97.2	104.5
season	15.9	15.5		103.4	101.7
opponent	15.3	15.7		105.2	103.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	OT	Total
ORL	18.1	15.3	15.0	17.1	17.3	16.5
BOS	16.9	14.1	15.6	19.8	12.7	15.7

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Orlando Magic
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Trevor Ariza	29	29	0.37	-0.87	1.24	-0.01	13	-22	35	15.2	17.0	-1.72	17.2	15.2	2.03
Carlos Arroyo	19	19	0.31	-0.81	1.12	0.04	9	-18	27	16.2	16.6	-0.42	19.1	15.0	4.11
Tony Battie	70	70	0.08	-0.58	0.67	0.44	-12	3	-15	17.6	14.4	3.21	16.5	14.3	2.17
Darko Milicic	5	4	0.07	-0.57	0.63	-0.02	3	-12	15	17.4	16.5	0.94	11.7	15.9	-4.13
Dwight Howard	94	95	-0.20	-0.30	0.11	-0.28	3	-12	15	16.8	14.3	2.54	16.3	11.5	4.76
JJ Redick	21	22	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.01	-8	-1	-7	13.8	17.2	-3.40	13.7	16.2	-2.51
Grant Hill	89	88	-0.63	0.13	-0.76	-0.19	-15	6	-21	17.1	13.8	3.29	15.9	14.9	1.01
Hedo Turkoglu	86	87	-0.70	0.20	-0.90	-0.32	-13	4	-17	16.7	15.8	0.91	15.3	17.3	-2.00
Keyon Dooling	47	46	-0.70	0.20	-0.91	-0.56	-5	-4	-1	14.8	17.8	-2.96	14.2	16.9	-2.70
Jameer Nelson	80	80	-0.85	0.35	-1.20	-0.26	-20	11	-31	16.5	16.6	-0.14	14.9	18.1	-3.22

Boston Celtics
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Allan Ray	9	12	0.65	-0.15	0.80	0.39	9	0	9	10.9	16.2	-5.27	16.0	16.6	-0.56
Delonte West	94	93	0.54	-0.04	0.58	0.22	11	-2	13	15.5	17.5	-2.04	15.6	22.2	-6.62
Rajon Rondo	81	80	0.50	0.00	0.50	0.03	16	-7	23	16.0	15.0	0.91	17.1	14.7	2.41
Paul Pierce	99	99	0.47	0.03	0.45	0.21	9	0	9	15.5	17.9	-2.36	16.7	14.0	2.73
Gerald Green	22	23	0.34	0.16	0.17	0.39	-2	11	-13	13.6	16.3	-2.68	11.0	18.0	-6.99
Kendrick Perkins	86	84	0.22	0.28	-0.07	-0.08	10	-1	11	16.2	13.8	2.45	16.7	15.6	1.13
Leon Powe	11	12	-0.02	0.52	-0.54	0.01	-1	10	-11	17.0	15.6	1.42	21.2	15.9	5.25
Al Jefferson	63	64	-0.04	0.54	-0.59	-0.04	0	9	-9	16.8	14.2	2.61	17.9	14.4	3.53
Ryan Gomes	47	46	-0.05	0.55	-0.60	0.01	-2	11	-13	15.0	16.3	-1.32	14.8	17.8	-2.99
Sebastian Telfair	20	20	-0.10	0.60	-0.71	0.04	-5	14	-19	16.0	15.6	0.40	17.3	16.3	0.98

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.54,0.52,0.49,0.54,0.55,0.55,0.57,0.61,0.62,0.6,0.53,0.6,0.6,0.62,0.6,0.56,0.58,0.52,0.63,0.67,0.69,0.79,0.82,0.78,0.79,0.82,0.72,0.7,0.76,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.66,0.77,0.82,0.62,0.7,0.71,0.67,0.58,0.36,0.4,0.34,0.32,0.45,0.1,0.27,0.54,0.62,0.79,0.55,0.42,0.46,0.39,0.55,0.77,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
NYK 118, SAC 123	0.5,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.56,0.53,0.51,0.57,0.57,0.51,0.47,0.43,0.47,0.4,0.45,0.51,0.51,0.53,0.64,0.69,0.69,0.66,0.7,0.78,0.71,0.8,0.75,0.81,0.81,0.74,0.74,0.75,0.83,0.86,0.85,0.85,0.78,0.67,0.62,0.63,0.51,0.35,0.27,0.25,0.29,0.32,0.26,0.54,0.55,0.63,0.43,0.41,0.54,0.55,0.78,0.86,0.98,1	90.1%
TOR 87, SEA 88	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.52,0.57,0.65,0.65,0.67,0.69,0.72,0.71,0.68,0.65,0.64,0.66,0.62,0.67,0.65,0.72,0.79,0.78,0.8,0.83,0.82,0.86,0.81,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.76,0.68,0.77,0.79,0.83,0.8,0.82,0.66,0.62,0.7,0.62,0.53,0.47,0.35,0.4,0.39,0.46,0.15,0.26,1	88.4%
DEN 147, SEA 151	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.54,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.51,0.47,0.55,0.45,0.34,0.44,0.37,0.45,0.51,0.49,0.56,0.54,0.56,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.67,0.73,0.67,0.69,0.8,0.78,0.7,0.67,0.68,0.55,0.69,0.77,0.71,0.75,0.66,0.66,0.62,0.52,0.47,0.41,0.29,0.28,0.31,0.55,0.43,0.16,0.54,0.45,0.45,0.57,0.04,0.46,0.55,0.77,0.91,0.96,1	87.3%