NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

New Orleans Hornets	84		Excitement	4.0 [985]		MVP	Jarvis Hayes (DET): +32.0%
Detroit Pistons	105		Comeback	2.4 [753]		LVP	Jannero Pargo (NOH): -5.6%

New Orleans Hornets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Peja Stojakovic	0.09	0,0,0,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.08,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.11,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09	0.09	0.00	0.01	15	64%	0.10	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.01
Melvin Ely	0.07	0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07	0.05	0.00	-0.01	11	60%	0.07	1	0.00	3	33%	-0.02
Mike James	0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.00	-0.03	2	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Ryan Bowen	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.01	-0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.00	1	-0.00	2	100%	0.00
Julian Wright	-0.00	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	-0.03	0.01	-0.01	12	38%	-0.00	0	0.00	2	100%	0.00
Chris Paul	-0.02	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	12	54%	0.06	4	-0.08	2	50%	-0.01
Tyson Chandler	-0.03	0,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,-0.01,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.04	0.00	-0.01	9	40%	-0.00	1	-0.02	2	0%	-0.04
Morris Peterson	-0.05	0,0,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05	-0.04	-0.01	-0.00	6	33%	-0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Jannero Pargo	-0.06	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.09	-0.00	-0.04	8	22%	-0.06	1	0.00	2	100%	0.01

Detroit Pistons
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Jarvis Hayes	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.11,0.16,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.24,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.23,0.26,0.31,0.31,0.31,0.33,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32,0.32	0.32	0.29	0.04	0.01	13	104%	0.34	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.01
Chauncey Billups	0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.09,0.09,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.11,0.09,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16,0.16	0.16	0.12	0.05	0.01	10	74%	0.18	1	-0.01	3	100%	0.02
Rasheed Wallace	0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.05	0.00	-0.01	7	71%	0.08	1	-0.01	0	0%	0.00
Theo Ratliff	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	0.02	0.00	0.00	1	100%	0.02	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jason Maxiell	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.02	0.00	0.00	6	50%	0.01	0	0.00	6	50%	-0.01
Tayshaun Prince	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.03,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	-0.01	-0.00	-0.02	13	46%	0.03	1	-0.02	2	100%	0.00
Antonio McDyess	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.01	0.01	-0.01	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Juan Dixon	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	2	75%	0.00	1	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Arron Afflalo	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	0.02	0.00	0.02	1	100%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Amir Johnson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0	0.00	-0.02	0.00	-0.02	1	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Richard Hamilton	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.05	0.01	-0.02	10	38%	0.01	1	-0.02	1	100%	0.01
Rodney Stuckey	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	0.01	6	57%	0.00	2	-0.02	2	100%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	25.5	2.8	28.2	17.4	26.5	3.8	31.7	135.9
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

DET +48.6%

DET +7.4%

NOH -3.6%

NOH -1.9%

NOH -0.6%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	NOH	DET	NBA	NOH	DET	NBA
this game	17.2	18.6	15.4	103.7	131.2	105.7
season	15.9	16.8		109.6	108.8
opponent	15.8	15.7		101.3	104.0

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
NOH	18.2	18.1	17.9	15.0	17.2
DET	20.8	17.9	19.0	17.0	18.6

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

New Orleans Hornets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	8	7	-0.00	-0.50	0.50	0.12	-4	-17	13	12.9	17.7	-4.78	16.6	18.8	-2.22
Ryan Bowen	15	14	-0.05	-0.45	0.41	0.16	-7	-14	7	15.3	17.6	-2.27	15.3	19.3	-4.02
Melvin Ely	47	45	-0.17	-0.33	0.16	0.04	-7	-14	7	17.6	16.6	0.98	18.8	18.3	0.46
Morris Peterson	39	37	-0.23	-0.27	0.04	-0.05	-6	-15	9	18.2	16.2	1.97	20.2	17.2	2.96
Chris Paul	64	64	-0.27	-0.23	-0.03	-0.03	-8	-13	5	17.8	15.0	2.77	19.1	16.5	2.63
Bonzi Wells	33	34	-0.30	-0.20	-0.09	0.03	-11	-10	-1	16.8	17.5	-0.72	17.5	19.4	-1.86
Jannero Pargo	33	33	-0.31	-0.19	-0.12	0.25	-19	-2	-17	15.8	18.1	-2.26	16.7	19.9	-3.19
Peja Stojakovic	62	63	-0.36	-0.14	-0.23	-0.01	-12	-9	-3	17.6	15.8	1.82	19.2	16.4	2.85
Julian Wright	38	37	-0.37	-0.13	-0.23	0.13	-17	-4	-13	16.4	17.9	-1.49	17.9	19.2	-1.37
Tyson Chandler	66	66	-0.45	-0.05	-0.41	-0.04	-14	-7	-7	17.6	15.3	2.27	19.3	15.3	4.02

Detroit Pistons
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jarvis Hayes	42	44	0.54	-0.04	0.58	-0.19	25	-4	29	17.4	19.9	-2.52	17.7	16.5	1.19
Jason Maxiell	51	51	0.45	0.05	0.41	-0.25	24	-3	27	17.4	20.7	-3.28	16.1	19.0	-2.83
Rodney Stuckey	32	34	0.38	0.12	0.26	-0.32	24	-3	27	16.6	20.0	-3.40	15.9	18.1	-2.30
Rasheed Wallace	52	54	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.03	12	9	3	18.8	18.2	0.59	17.8	15.9	1.89
Tayshaun Prince	60	59	0.26	0.24	0.03	0.00	9	12	-3	19.1	17.1	1.93	17.2	17.1	0.07
Richard Hamilton	48	48	0.20	0.30	-0.11	0.08	4	17	-13	19.5	17.2	2.25	18.2	15.7	2.51
Theo Ratliff	7	7	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	17	-13	21.4	18.3	3.10	19.0	17.0	1.99
Chauncey Billups	48	47	0.12	0.38	-0.26	0.21	-3	24	-27	20.0	16.6	3.40	18.1	15.9	2.30
Antonio McDyess	43	42	0.09	0.41	-0.33	0.14	-2	23	-25	19.6	17.4	2.22	18.2	16.1	2.04
Amir Johnson	7	8	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.12	4	17	-13	16.6	18.8	-2.22	12.9	17.7	-4.78
Juan Dixon	5	5	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	19	-17	16.4	18.7	-2.35	8.4	17.8	-9.36
Arron Afflalo	5	6	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.06	2	19	-17	16.4	18.7	-2.35	12.2	17.6	-5.42

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.49,0.46,0.42,0.35,0.34,0.31,0.32,0.31,0.34,0.37,0.42,0.4,0.37,0.47,0.53,0.49,0.56,0.61,0.58,0.66,0.76,0.76,0.79,0.8,0.8,0.83,0.77,0.85,0.87,0.86,0.84,0.92,0.91,0.9,0.83,0.9,0.9,0.87,0.93,0.96,0.97,0.97,0.97,1,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
POR 82, MEM 97	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	94.8%
BOS 77, MIA 100	0.5,0.51,0.46,0.41,0.37,0.38,0.4,0.38,0.41,0.35,0.38,0.4,0.44,0.48,0.53,0.51,0.53,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.64,0.71,0.72,0.75,0.67,0.7,0.74,0.79,0.85,0.85,0.84,0.85,0.9,0.78,0.91,0.89,0.92,0.96,0.97,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.97,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%
NOH 88, LAL 107	0.5,0.51,0.48,0.42,0.38,0.31,0.33,0.34,0.31,0.32,0.33,0.38,0.4,0.46,0.42,0.42,0.47,0.53,0.6,0.59,0.64,0.66,0.69,0.77,0.7,0.7,0.77,0.77,0.75,0.81,0.86,0.82,0.91,0.89,0.91,0.96,0.98,0.99,0.99,1,0.99,1,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1	94.7%