NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Portland Trail Blazers	82		Excitement	4.3 [962]		MVP	Courtney Lee (MEM): +12.5%
Memphis Grizzlies	97		Comeback	1.7 [848]		LVP	Damian Lillard (POR): -8.3%

Portland Trail Blazers
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Meyers Leonard	0.05	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.05,0.06,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.08	-0.01	0.03	5	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Robin Lopez	0.03	0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.06,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.04	-0.01	0.01	6	83%	0.08	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Steve Blake	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Joel Freeland	0.00	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Allen Crabbe	-0.02	0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02	0.00	-0.01	0.01	2	75%	0.01	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
LaMarcus Aldridge	-0.06	0,0,-0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.08,0.06,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0,0.03,0,0.04,0.04,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.05	0.01	0.02	20	48%	0.03	4	-0.09	10	90%	0.03
Nicolas Batum	-0.07	0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.11,-0.12,-0.1,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.1,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07	-0.12	-0.00	-0.06	15	37%	0.00	4	-0.07	0	0%	0.00
CJ McCollum	-0.08	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.10	-0.01	-0.03	13	23%	-0.08	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Damian Lillard	-0.08	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.05,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.09,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.01	-0.01	0.06	16	45%	-0.07	1	-0.01	8	87%	-0.00

Memphis Grizzlies
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Courtney Lee	0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.04,0.04,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.12	0.14	0.02	0.03	11	78%	0.12	0	0.00	1	0%	-0.02
Mike Conley	0,0,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.06,0.11,0.1,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.08	-0.00	0.02	11	69%	0.11	2	-0.05	4	100%	0.01
Beno Udrih	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.02	0.01	-0.02	9	50%	0.05	0	0.00	2	100%	0.01
Vince Carter	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03	0.03	0.07	-0.00	0.04	6	75%	0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Tony Allen	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.01,0.01,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02	0.02	-0.01	0.01	-0.02	4	50%	0.02	1	-0.00	0	0%	0.00
Kosta Koufos	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.01	0.01	0.00	-0.00	4	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Nick Calathes	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Marc Gasol	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.04,-0.05,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.04,-0.06,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01	-0.01	-0.01	0.00	-0.01	15	41%	-0.01	0	0.00	7	100%	0.03
Jeff Green	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.06,-0.07,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.06	0.01	-0.03	13	35%	-0.00	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Zach Randolph	0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.08,-0.06,-0.06,-0.07,-0.07,-0.08,-0.1,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08	-0.08	-0.09	0.00	-0.01	16	31%	-0.05	1	-0.03	0	0%	0.00

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	23.4	3.7	31.2	17.6	27.2	2.7	32.0	137.8
league avg	24.6	2.3	29.6	16.0	26.9	2.3	33.6	136.8

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

MEM +22.3%

MEM +1.0%

MEM +0.6%

MEM +19.8%

MEM +6.3%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	POR	MEM	NBA	POR	MEM	NBA
this game	15.8	17.5	15.1	94.3	112.8	104.2
season	15.3	15.9		106.5	103.8
opponent	15.2	15.0		100.8	102.7

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
POR	15.5	16.4	14.3	16.9	15.8
MEM	18.0	14.9	19.3	18.1	17.5

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Portland Trail Blazers
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Joel Freeland	7	9	-0.08	-0.42	0.34	0.01	-3	-12	9	14.0	15.9	-1.93	18.2	17.5	0.77
Steve Blake	18	18	-0.18	-0.32	0.14	0.03	-7	-8	1	18.9	15.0	3.93	13.7	18.6	-4.89
Meyers Leonard	34	32	-0.24	-0.26	0.02	-0.01	-8	-7	-1	16.7	15.2	1.49	16.7	18.0	-1.25
Robin Lopez	56	54	-0.24	-0.26	0.01	-0.04	-7	-8	1	15.0	17.2	-2.21	18.6	15.8	2.79
Allen Crabbe	41	43	-0.25	-0.25	0.00	-0.01	-8	-7	-1	16.3	15.3	0.99	17.0	18.1	-1.07
CJ McCollum	53	51	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.01	-10	-5	-5	15.9	15.6	0.25	17.5	17.5	0.03
Nicolas Batum	77	75	-0.34	-0.16	-0.17	-0.16	-6	-9	3	15.4	19.0	-3.65	18.0	14.1	3.95
LaMarcus Aldridge	77	77	-0.43	-0.07	-0.37	-0.08	-12	-3	-9	16.1	13.2	2.90	17.1	21.7	-4.61
Damian Lillard	72	71	-0.44	-0.06	-0.37	-0.03	-14	-1	-13	15.1	19.1	-4.06	18.3	13.9	4.36

Memphis Grizzlies
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Jeff Green	49	48	0.55	-0.05	0.60	-0.04	20	-5	25	16.6	18.8	-2.19	16.1	15.3	0.79
Vince Carter	28	27	0.32	0.18	0.14	-0.03	12	3	9	14.6	18.9	-4.34	17.0	15.2	1.84
Tony Allen	65	66	0.30	0.20	0.10	0.09	7	8	-1	17.0	19.2	-2.19	16.6	13.2	3.34
Beno Udrih	33	33	0.29	0.21	0.09	0.03	9	6	3	17.2	17.7	-0.47	17.2	14.9	2.37
Marc Gasol	62	63	0.24	0.26	-0.01	0.15	3	12	-9	18.4	15.2	3.23	15.1	17.6	-2.50
Kosta Koufos	23	24	0.24	0.26	-0.02	-0.03	9	6	3	15.5	18.3	-2.81	18.0	14.9	3.02
Mike Conley	53	54	0.21	0.29	-0.09	0.03	6	9	-3	17.7	17.2	0.47	14.9	17.2	-2.37
Zach Randolph	57	59	0.20	0.30	-0.10	0.05	5	10	-5	18.8	15.1	3.62	15.2	17.0	-1.87
Courtney Lee	58	60	0.15	0.35	-0.19	0.07	3	12	-9	18.9	14.6	4.29	14.6	18.4	-3.77
Nick Calathes	2	1	0.00	0.50	-0.50	-0.03	1	14	-13	19.5	17.5	2.01	8.0	15.9	-7.86

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.38,0.41,0.41,0.38,0.37,0.43,0.38,0.4,0.42,0.46,0.46,0.47,0.53,0.56,0.65,0.7,0.73,0.76,0.78,0.75,0.78,0.8,0.71,0.77,0.82,0.83,0.81,0.87,0.9,0.89,0.92,0.97,0.95,0.94,0.92,0.92,0.86,0.9,0.92,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1
Game		Similarity Score
BOS 106, MEM 110	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.42,0.37,0.36,0.42,0.4,0.41,0.47,0.43,0.38,0.53,0.46,0.47,0.42,0.53,0.53,0.63,0.61,0.66,0.74,0.82,0.85,0.82,0.78,0.77,0.77,0.8,0.81,0.73,0.82,0.9,0.91,0.93,0.95,0.9,0.92,0.92,0.9,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,0.99,0.98,0.98,0.95,1	95.4%
PHX 90, HOU 101	0.5,0.49,0.46,0.43,0.38,0.35,0.36,0.39,0.43,0.47,0.47,0.43,0.45,0.52,0.55,0.55,0.55,0.58,0.61,0.7,0.68,0.73,0.78,0.8,0.8,0.82,0.76,0.86,0.89,0.85,0.79,0.79,0.85,0.91,0.93,0.96,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.97,0.96,0.99,0.99,1,1,1,1,1,1,1	95.4%
PHX 89, ATL 104	0.5,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.45,0.44,0.47,0.47,0.45,0.39,0.4,0.45,0.49,0.54,0.53,0.51,0.56,0.58,0.65,0.68,0.77,0.8,0.8,0.85,0.78,0.82,0.74,0.69,0.78,0.88,0.9,0.89,0.88,0.9,0.83,0.9,0.96,0.95,0.92,0.88,0.95,0.93,0.94,0.98,0.99,1,1,1,1,1	95.3%