NBA Win Probability Game Box Scores

NBA Win Probability Box Scores (click here for LIVE graphs)

Real Time? Pre Game Odds?

winProb
gameTime
fourFactors
pace
on/off
misc

Houston Rockets	84		Excitement	6.6 [459]		MVP	Luis Scola (HOU): +24.5%
San Antonio Spurs	90		Comeback	2.5 [771]		LVP	Yao Ming (HOU): -23.4%

Houston Rockets
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Luis Scola	0.25	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.1,0.13,0.13,0.16,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.13,0.18,0.18,0.25,0.25,0.25,0.25	0.16	0.09	0.00	11	91%	0.27	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Shane Battier	0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0.01,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.03,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.04,0.04,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.09,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12	0.08	0.03	-0.02	11	64%	0.14	1	-0.02	3	67%	0.00
Charles Hayes	0.01	0,0,0.02,0.02,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	0.00	0.01	2	100%	0.03	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Mike James	0.01	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,0,0,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.03,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.09,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01	0.02	-0.01	0.00	10	50%	0.01	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Rafer Alston	-0.04	0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.01,-0.04,-0.04,-0.08,-0.08,-0.03,0.01,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	10	43%	0.02	2	-0.06	1	0%	-0.03
Luther Head	-0.12	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.05,0.05,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.12,-0.12	-0.01	-0.10	0.00	6	58%	-0.05	2	-0.06	0	0%	0.00
Bonzi Wells	-0.16	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.03,-0.04,-0.04,-0.02,-0.05,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.09,-0.11,-0.13,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16,-0.16	-0.13	-0.04	-0.01	9	20%	-0.12	2	-0.04	2	100%	0.01
Yao Ming	-0.23	0,0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.05,-0.05,-0.09,-0.11,-0.11,-0.11,-0.1,-0.13,-0.13,-0.15,-0.15,-0.15,-0.19,-0.22,-0.22,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.25,-0.24,-0.24,-0.24,-0.19,-0.19,-0.19,-0.23,-0.18,-0.23	-0.15	-0.08	0.01	16	44%	0.03	7	-0.27	0	0%	0.00

San Antonio Spurs
Player	WPA		eWPA	clWPA	gbWPA	FGA	TS%	tsWPA	TO	toWPA	FTA	FT%	ftWPA
Michael Finley	0,0,0,0,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.08,0.13,0.13,0.15,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.2,0.23,0.23,0.23	0.23	0.18	0.05	0.01	8	106%	0.23	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Manu Ginobili	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.01,0.01,-0.01,-0.04,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,0.01,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.08,-0.11,-0.14,-0.07,-0.03,-0.05,0,-0.02,0.02,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,0.07	0.07	-0.05	0.09	-0.02	14	56%	0.21	6	-0.15	6	100%	0.04
Brent Barry	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.12,0.06,0.06	0.06	0.03	0.03	0.00	4	62%	0.06	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Bruce Bowen	0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,0.01,0.01,0.01,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	0.04	0.02	0.01	3	100%	0.07	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Tony Parker	0,0,0,0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.05,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.07,-0.06,-0.01,-0.01,0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.06,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.08,-0.12,-0.12,-0.12,-0.04,0.05,0.05,0.05	0.05	-0.03	0.13	0.04	13	47%	0.11	2	-0.06	4	50%	-0.04
Francisco Elson	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,0,0,0,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04,0.04	0.04	0.00	0.04	-0.00	3	67%	0.06	1	-0.02	0	0%	0.00
Darius Washington	0	0.00	0.00	0.00	0.00	0	0%	0.00	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Fabricio Oberto	0,0,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.01,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03	-0.03	-0.03	-0.01	-0.01	2	0%	-0.03	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Jacque Vaughn	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04,-0.04	-0.04	-0.03	-0.01	0.00	2	0%	-0.04	0	0.00	0	0%	0.00
Matt Bonner	0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.03,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06,-0.06	-0.06	-0.06	-0.01	0.00	1	0%	-0.02	2	-0.05	0	0%	0.00
Tim Duncan	0,0,-0.01,0,0,0,0,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.07,0.07,0.07,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.08,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.01,-0.01,0.03,0.05,0.05,0.05,0.06,0.06,0.06,0.03,0.04,0.07,0.07,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0.02,0,-0.02,-0.02,-0.02,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.14,-0.16	-0.16	-0.04	-0.11	0.01	22	50%	-0.02	4	-0.14	6	50%	-0.03

Game Length Report (minutes)

	Q1		Q2		Q3		Q4	Total
this game	26.6	3.6	25.3	17.5	24.7	1.8	35.2	134.8
league avg	27.9	2.4	30.0	16.2	26.6	2.4	33.3	140.1

Win Probability Added by the Four Factors

(aka How the Game Was Won)

victory
100% WP

start
50% WP

SAS +30.5%

HOU -0.1%

SAS +13.9%

SAS +5.6%

SAS +0.1%

Pace and Efficiency Report

	seconds / possession			points / 100 possessions
all possessions	HOU	SAS	NBA	HOU	SAS	NBA
this game	16.8	16.1	15.4	97.7	101.1	105.7
season	16.2	16.5		104.6	104.7
opponent	15.3	15.2		100.5	100.3

Quarterly Pace Report (seconds per possession)

	Q1	Q2	Q3	Q4	Total
HOU	16.4	17.3	16.8	16.8	16.8
SAS	15.7	14.8	18.3	16.0	16.1

On/Off Win Probability and Pace Statistics

Houston Rockets
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Mike James	43	45	0.12	-0.62	0.75	-0.05	6	-12	18	17.2	16.4	0.81	15.8	16.4	-0.56
Charles Hayes	22	25	-0.11	-0.39	0.29	-0.08	-1	-5	4	17.5	16.5	1.00	16.8	15.9	0.94
Luther Head	50	51	-0.18	-0.32	0.13	-0.24	2	-8	10	16.7	17.0	-0.29	15.5	16.9	-1.44
Luis Scola	55	53	-0.27	-0.23	-0.05	-0.36	3	-9	12	17.0	16.5	0.55	16.6	15.4	1.23
Bonzi Wells	41	42	-0.30	-0.20	-0.10	-0.10	-7	1	-8	16.6	17.0	-0.37	17.0	15.3	1.66
Rafer Alston	76	80	-0.50	-0.00	-0.50	-0.32	-6	0	-6	17.0	15.3	1.70	16.1	16.0	0.14
Yao Ming	71	73	-0.59	0.09	-0.69	-0.18	-14	8	-22	16.4	18.8	-2.42	16.1	16.1	-0.00
Shane Battier	72	76	-0.67	0.17	-0.83	-0.29	-13	7	-20	16.6	17.9	-1.35	15.6	19.0	-3.37

San Antonio Spurs
	possessions		win probability				points			pace (offense)			pace (defense)
player	offense	defense	on	off	diff	cl+/-	on	off	diff	on	off	diff	on	off	diff
Manu Ginobili	58	57	0.74	-0.24	0.99	0.28	16	-10	26	15.1	18.0	-2.83	15.6	19.1	-3.52
Michael Finley	58	54	0.66	-0.16	0.81	0.42	8	-2	10	16.0	16.4	-0.40	16.8	16.7	0.08
Tony Parker	62	57	0.47	0.03	0.43	0.26	7	-1	8	16.0	16.4	-0.46	16.7	17.0	-0.25
Francisco Elson	29	27	0.36	0.14	0.23	0.13	8	-2	10	15.2	16.6	-1.36	16.9	16.7	0.18
Brent Barry	36	35	0.26	0.24	0.02	0.20	2	4	-2	15.9	16.2	-0.30	16.8	16.8	-0.05
Tim Duncan	71	69	0.18	0.32	-0.14	0.18	0	6	-6	16.3	15.4	0.85	16.7	17.4	-0.69
Fabricio Oberto	31	32	0.14	0.36	-0.22	0.02	4	2	2	17.6	15.3	2.29	17.3	16.5	0.81
Jacque Vaughn	27	29	0.03	0.47	-0.43	0.06	-1	7	-8	16.4	16.0	0.46	17.0	16.7	0.25
Darius Washington	1	0	0.00	0.50	-0.50	0.00	0	6	-6	3.0	16.3	-13.27	0.0	16.8	-16.80
Bruce Bowen	56	54	-0.14	0.64	-0.77	0.04	-6	12	-18	16.9	14.8	2.03	17.5	15.7	1.78
Matt Bonner	16	16	-0.21	0.71	-0.92	0.03	-8	14	-22	16.8	16.0	0.84	18.1	16.5	1.62

Dopplegamers 0.5,0.51,0.46,0.51,0.51,0.49,0.48,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.51,0.52,0.51,0.58,0.49,0.47,0.46,0.41,0.34,0.34,0.36,0.46,0.46,0.54,0.6,0.58,0.69,0.64,0.67,0.68,0.68,0.62,0.52,0.67,0.82,0.7,0.74,0.75,0.87,0.81,0.74,0.71,0.67,0.61,0.71,0.84,0.83,1
Game		Similarity Score
NJN 80, ORL 83	0.5,0.51,0.51,0.54,0.56,0.54,0.53,0.47,0.55,0.51,0.51,0.55,0.56,0.65,0.56,0.56,0.58,0.51,0.38,0.34,0.31,0.31,0.41,0.42,0.44,0.58,0.57,0.55,0.66,0.7,0.74,0.74,0.82,0.75,0.66,0.7,0.64,0.66,0.78,0.75,0.87,0.88,0.79,0.65,0.77,0.8,0.79,0.9,0.92,1	92.9%
MIL 105, SEA 114	0.5,0.49,0.45,0.48,0.52,0.51,0.49,0.49,0.47,0.51,0.38,0.47,0.56,0.6,0.47,0.49,0.4,0.38,0.44,0.48,0.42,0.41,0.44,0.51,0.54,0.5,0.57,0.55,0.61,0.64,0.58,0.58,0.59,0.65,0.66,0.7,0.72,0.81,0.81,0.91,0.83,0.68,0.69,0.71,0.67,0.69,0.85,0.98,1,1	92.4%
NYK 70, PHI 74	0.5,0.51,0.52,0.55,0.57,0.54,0.52,0.55,0.53,0.47,0.49,0.49,0.42,0.48,0.49,0.53,0.49,0.51,0.42,0.39,0.46,0.41,0.42,0.46,0.49,0.5,0.52,0.52,0.61,0.61,0.67,0.74,0.68,0.73,0.69,0.7,0.64,0.58,0.74,0.85,0.83,0.91,0.89,0.8,0.83,0.81,0.79,0.85,0.95,1	92.2%